10 power conference coaches already on the hot seat entering the 2024 college football season
In many ways, the 2024 college football season marks the beginning of a new era in the sport.
The latest wave of realignment has created conference landscapes that would have looked completely foreign to a fan 20 years ago, and the expansion of the College Football Playoff to 12 teams allows for many more squads to remain in contention for a championship late into the season.
But despite all this change, there's at least one remaining constant in college football: the hot seat.
CFP expansion in addition to the advent of NIL and the transfer portal has only ramped up the pressure coaches are facing, and athletic departments could become even less patient than they've historically been.
As we enter the 2024 season, quite a few coaches from the Power Four ranks find themselves in danger of losing their jobs. While this doesn't mean a change is guaranteed — West Virginia's Neal Brown seemed to occupy the nation's hottest seat entering the 2023 season and is nowhere to be found on this year's list — there are certainly quite a few situations worth keeping an eye on.
Here are 10 power conference coaches who enter the season on the hot seat.
Justin Wilcox, Cal
Let's be clear: Cal is a tough job, and Justin Wilcox's seven-year tenure has been far from awful.
It was especially promising early on as he turned in seven and eight-win seasons in his second and third years in Berkeley, but the Golden Bears were just 10-18 over the next three seasons.
Wilcox's seat appeared to be much hotter entering 2023 before the eventual breakup of the Pac-12 and a bounce-back from 4-8 to 6-7 was enough for Wilcox to stick around.
It's still hard to love this situation, though, even more so given Cal's status as the ACC's far-flung west coast outpost alongside rival Stanford. Like the Cardinal, this program is sure to face some challenges in the new world, but previous coaches Jeff Tedford and Sonny Dykes proved that it is possible to win here in the modern era, at least to a degree.
Does an uncertain future for the program buy Wilcox at least another shot in 2025? Probably, but a change wouldn't shock me, especially if the Golden Bears aren't competitive in their new conference this season.
Mario Cristobal, Miami
When Miami poached Mario Cristobal — a former Hurricanes player and master recruiter — from Oregon, it appeared to be the move that would finally bring the program back to national prominence, at least if such a thing was even possible.
Through two seasons, though, it hasn't really worked out that way. He's 12-13 so far in Coral Gables and just 6-10 in ACC play. Cristobal's recruiting prowess has, unsurprisingly, translated well to talent-rich south Florida, and he's assembled a roster in 2024 that should be his best at UM by a mile.
Led by a potential Heisman candidate in transfer quarterback Cam Ward, this is Cristobal's year to make some noise in the ACC. But it's hard to escape the thought of the head-scratching losses under Cristobal, like a 14-point home loss to Middle Tennessee in 2022 and last year's refusal to kneel the ball that cost the team what should have been a win against Georgia Tech.
Can the Hurricanes — and Cristobal, in particular, whose in-game coaching acumen is justifiably under question — avoid such mistakes this fall? The schedule sets up nicely for a potential run, and a good season could silence all hot-seat talk.
But if Miami opens the season with a loss to rival Florida in Gainesville, this could quickly become a much different conversation.
Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi and Pittsburgh is a fascinating case study of how quickly the narrative can change in college football.
In 2021, Narduzzi led the Panthers to a shocking ACC title and their best season since Dan Marino was the quarterback. Now, he finds himself on this list just three years later.
The drop-off has been fairly stark. Pitt made a change at offensive coordinator entering 2022 despite all the success with previous coordinator Mark Whipple and first-round quarterback Kenny Pickett. The Panthers still won nine games that season but fell off a cliff in 2023 as they floundered to 3-9.
The stark decline has been most pronounced on the offensive side of the ball, which turns to its third coordinator in four years in Kade Bell. Pittsburgh's offensive ranking dropped from No. 7 in 2021 to No. 50 in 2022, bottoming out at No. 116 last fall.
Narduzzi didn't help his cause by throwing his transfer additions under the bus during last season's collapse, prompting public criticism from said transfers.
The vibes here feel pretty rancid, and barring a massive turnaround, I think a change is very possible.
Dave Aranda, Baylor
Narduzzi isn't the only coach who won a conference title in 2021 and now finds themself on the hot seat. Dave Aranda has followed a fairly similar trajectory the last two seasons at Baylor since a 12-2 Big 12 title campaign, and the Bears are coming off an abysmal 3-9 season that started with a home loss to Texas State and never got better.
Aranda managed to stick around for another year, albeit with a mandate from above to make significant staff changes. He's done that, but this still doesn't feel like a roster poised to compete in the Big 12.
He's a brilliant defensive mind and would surely be the most coveted defensive coordinator in the country if the Bears make a change, but the fit was always a bit strange here. Aranda's only experience coaching in the Lone Star State was three years as a graduate assistant at Texas Tech more than two decades ago, and with so many up-and-coming coaching prospects in the state, there would be no shortage of options with better Texas bona fides than Aranda in the market.
This seems like the most likely job to open in the Big 12 this season.
Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati
Satterfield is the only Year 2 coach on this list, and by extension, he's likely among the safest. But man, does this seem like a rough situation from an outsider's perspective.
The loss of Luke Fickell predictably stung quite a bit during the Bearcats' first campaign as a power conference team as they fell to 3-9 in Satterfield's first season. That wouldn't put him on this list by itself, but it seemingly confirmed some priors about a hire many saw as strange.
Satterfield spent much of his last two years at Louisville on the hot seat himself, and Cardinals fans didn't seem too upset to see him go. Despite there being other, more promising options, Cincy brought in a guy with just a 25-24 record as a Power Five coach.
Unless you're particularly fired up about Indiana transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby, this team is likely to finish near the bottom of the Big 12 again, and I wouldn't rule out Cincinnati taking an early out on a hire that never really made sense and doesn't seem to be working.
Ryan Day, Ohio State
I hate this discourse. I hate it so much. Ryan Day is 56-8 at Ohio State, and I find the idea that he's even remotely close to the hot seat to be completely ridiculous.
But we have to talk about it.
Despite boasting a record that 99% of programs would trample over each other to acquire, he has come up short when it matters the most. The Buckeyes have lost three games in a row to Michigan after his predecessor, Urban Meyer, went 7-0 against the Wolverines. When you lose the only game on the schedule that the fans care about, it's hard to fault them for feeling like you're underachieving.
Of course, Day and Ohio State were a missed field goal away from upsetting Georgia in the CFP semifinal in 2022. If that kick sails through the uprights, the Buckeyes likely have a national title under Day and his name would be nowhere near these lists.
But that's not the reality we live in, and Day is understandably shouldering massive expectations in 2024. Ohio State had a blockbuster offseason and is a popular preseason national title pick. With Jim Harbaugh and 15 NFL draft picks moving on from Michigan, this seems like the perfect opportunity to reassert control of the Big Ten.
If Day can't do that, if the Buckeyes lose to Michigan again and/or fail to make a deep CFP run, this debate is going to linger, even if the actual OSU brass has no desire to make a change.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas
As we turn our attention to the SEC, we reach what is likely the hottest seat in America entering the 2024 season.
Despite the former Georgia offensive line coach being a fairly uninspired hire, the early returns were promising for the Razorbacks. Pittman won nine games in his second season, but the team has steadily regressed since then and fell to 4-8 last fall despite having playmakers at quarterback and running back.
Pittman survived 2023 by the skin of his teeth, but he may not be so lucky this time around. The aforementioned quarterback and running back both departed via the transfer portal, and Boise State transfer Taylen Green probably won't move the needle behind center.
Pair that with a buyout that is cut in half if Pittman's record since 2021 drops below .500 — it currently sits at 20-18 — and it's hard to see Pittman getting a sixth season barring a truly surprising season.
Billy Napier, Florida
The days of Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow dominating the SEC feel like a distant memory for Florida. The Gators are now on their fourth head coach since Meyer resigned following the 2010 season, and if they don't turn things around this season, they could be searching for their fifth.
There was a lot of optimism that Napier would finally be the cure for this program's ills after he built a Sun Belt recruiting powerhouse in the image of Nick Saban's Alabama at Louisiana. And to be fair, Napier has achieved better recruiting results than his predecessor Dan Mullen, but to this point, it hasn't translated to success on the field.
Napier is 11-14 in Gainesville, and his team regressed (at least on paper) from 6-7 in Year 1 to 5-7 in Year 2. The winning has to start this season, and to make matters worse for Napier, the Gators face an absolute gauntlet of a schedule in 2024 that features eight teams ranked in the preseason AP Top 25, six of which are among the top 15.
The roster appears to be Napier's most complete so far, but significant improvement on the field could still look like 5-7 in the record book. I expect Florida will look for every reason to keep Napier around, especially with five-star true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway waiting in the wings, but it will be hard to justify doing so if this team doesn't show significant signs of progress in 2024.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
Beamer and South Carolina appeared poised for a breakout in 2023. The Gamecocks were coming off an 8-5 campaign that saw them end the regular season with massive upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson, dashing the former's playoff hopes.
As it turns out, that two-week stretch remains the highlight of the Beamer era in Columbia. Despite getting very solid play out of quarterback Spencer Rattler, South Carolina went just 5-7 in 2023 and now turns to an inexperienced redshirt freshman in LaNorris Sellers to replace Rattler. Juice Wells, one of the best receivers in the SEC, is also gone after transferring to league foe Ole Miss.
Beamer hasn't exactly been bad by this program's standards, but it's also been pretty uninspiring and failed to capitalize on whatever momentum it has managed to generate. I'm probably a year early on this one, and I would expect Beamer to be one of 2025's most pre-fired coaches, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a move sooner if the floor were to fall out for the Gamecocks this fall.
Clark Lea, Vanderbilt
Placing Vanderbilt's head coach on a preseason hot seat list raises an important question: What do fair expectations at Vanderbilt even look like in 2024?
I admit that I don't know the answer to that question, but I feel like I can safely say Lea isn't currently living up to them. The former Notre Dame defensive coordinator was a perfectly fine hire on paper, and there have been bright spots — most notably, a 5-7 campaign in 2022 that featured upset wins over Florida and Kentucky.
But those are practically the only two bright spots that exist, making it difficult to see the upside of what Lea is building at Vanderbilt. Despite there being hope the Commodores could build on their 2022 success, they went just 2-10 last fall in a campaign that featured a loss to UNLV and no wins in conference play — moving Lea to just 2-22 overall against SEC opponents.
Academic standards hamstring this program's ability to compete in the transfer portal, and the nine-win highs of the James Franklin era are likely impossible to replicate now. But if Lea can't show signs of life in 2024 — any signs, at all — Vandy may have no choice but to move on.
Group of Five grab-bag
Mike Houston, East Carolina: The former FCS national champion coach at James Madison followed an 8-5 season in 2022 with a 2-10 collapse last fall. It was jarring, and while Houston stuck around, he needs to get things back on track quickly.
Stan Drayton, Temple: The former Texas running backs coach hasn't done much of note in Philadelphia, winning three games in each of his first two campaigns. It's hard to imagine this getting much better after quarterback E.J. Warner transferred to Rice, and Drayton's best hope of sticking around probably rests on the Owls being unwilling to pay a buyout.
Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech: The former Texas Tech interim head coach is likely on the G5's hottest seat after back-to-back 3-9 seasons to start his tenure in Ruston. He may need to do quite a bit better than that this fall to stick around in this job.
Joe Moorhead, Akron: The Zips haven't achieved much at all under the former Mississippi State head coach, going 2-10 in both of his first two seasons. The MAC is in flux, and Akron is a have-not relative to the conference. That may keep them from making a change, but it's also always possible Moorhead, an elite offensive coordinator, leaves of his own accord.
Clay Helton, Georgia Southern: Hiring a Rose Bowl-winning former USC coach seemed like a big deal at the time for the Eagles, but two 6-7 campaigns have left quite a bit to be desired in Statesboro. This is a proud program that expects to compete in the Sun Belt, and so far, that hasn't been the case under Helton.
Will Hall, Southern Miss: Hall seems to be well-liked in Hattiesburg, but a 13-24 record is a 13-24 record. After winning seven games in 2022, the Golden Eagles won just three last fall. Hall is sure to get the benefit of the doubt if it's possible, but that will likely require a season closer to 2022.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: 10 power conference coaches already on the hot seat entering the 2024 college football season