10 Colts thoughts on Anthony Richardson's ceiling and whether to sign Simmons or Diggs
WESTFIELD -- Ten thoughts on the Colts' start to training camp and the season to come:
1. We're only three practices in. The pads have yet to come on. So although I'm going to do these 10 thoughts based on each practice week, it makes sense to start with the big-picture conversations surrounding this team, which unlike in past seasons is all about the potential on the field right now.
Since I arrived on the beat at midseason in 2021, the Colts have been a high point of drama, from the breakup with Carson Wentz to the firing spree in the 2022 season to Jeff Saturday's arrival to the gambling punishments to Jonathan Taylor's holdout that dominated all of last training camp.
This year, the biggest point of contention is... Ryan Kelly wants an extension? The Colts could sign a safety? Even those are ultimately football evaluation questions: How much does Kelly have left? Can Nick Cross or Rodney Thomas II get the job done as a starter?
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2. The Colts went 9-8 last season with all of two plays shared between Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. Their offseason has been a bit boring, with Joe Flacco and Raekwon Davis being the highlight veteran acquisitions. It's fair to criticize that some.
But this "run it back" effort is as much about allowing Shane Steichen to build on what he started last season, and so far, this training camp has adopted his all-ball, solutions-oriented personality.
How to keep Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor healthy
3. Let's start with the biggest question for the Colts to answer: How do they get Richardson and Taylor to their collective ceiling without losing them to injury?
Ever since last season ended, that conversation has focused on Richardson's playing style and what it will require to keep him healthy after a rookie season with a brain injury and an AC joint sprain in just four games.
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The conversation too often turns into doom-and-gloom predictions that are understandable for a fan base that lived through Andrew Luck's retirement but are ultimately fruitless. Beyond expecting that all ball carriers get injured at some point, injuries aren't nearly as predictive on an individual level as people like to assume.
An example I always use is Matthew Stafford, who missed 19 games to shoulder and knee issues his first two seasons and left some in Detroit to wonder if he could make it through his rookie contract. By the time I joined the Lions beat in 2016, Stafford was in the midst of a run of 136 starts in a row. And although he's obviously not the runner Richardson is, the conversations were similar, as Stafford was taking an extreme number of hits behind a shaky offensive line and was happy to seek out contact rather than slide.
I say we let some things play out. Let's stay curious instead of frightened.
4. I can tell you that's how Steichen is looking at all of this.
He lives to design intricate plays for the best athletes in the world and lost one right after it seemed like the light bulb went off in that comeback against the Rams. He's felt this all, too, even if it never shows.
But to ever get the most out of those play-calling skills or Richardson's 4.4-second 40-yard dash speed or 10-foot-9 broad jump, Steichen knows he has to call quarterback runs and give this rose a chance to bloom. He has a historic athlete here.
“People ask this, too, a lot, it’s just like: ‘Hey, are you going to limit the run game?’” Steichen said. “I kind of think, like, shoot, are you going to limit Steph Curry from shooting 3-pointers? Well, that’s one of Anthony’s strengths, right? So we’re not going to get away from that. That’s what he does well.”
Owner Jim Irsay, who has worn the pain of the Luck injuries more than anyone, backed up that philosophy Sunday night.
Colts news: 'I think his style is great': Colts owner Jim Irsay wants Anthony Richardson to run, too
"It's a physical game," Irsay said. "(Richardson) has to seize the opportunity to use his feet when he can and protect himself as well. He knows that. At the same time, we drafted him because we know with his feet, he can be dangerous and pick up critical yards at critical times."
5. The Colts have had brutal luck with quarterback injuries over the past decade, but one of the worst mistakes they can make is living in those fears and not chasing the very reasons they drafted Richardson at No. 4 despite a 53% completion rate and 13 career college starts. It was never to have him to drop back and pass like Tom Brady. (He tried that once in college, and it was the worst game he's ever played.)
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Scared money don't make money. It's a lesson this franchise needs to learn in other areas, which I'll get to. But it starts with letting Richardson be Richardson, because that loose and joyful version is the best one of him that exists.
Expectations for Jonathan Taylor in 2024
6. So, how does Taylor factor into all of this? Quite a bit.
Richardson got hurt on a designed keeper against the Titans when Harold Landry landed on him on a play that had no chance. Taylor suffered his big ankle injury the year before against the Titans when he got caught at the center of a pile of bodies.
In both cases, the defense knew which player was likely taking the ball, and football suddenly became a little more like rugby. The dream of having Richardson and Taylor together in the backfield is in the upside of what two 4.4-second runners can do together, yes. But it's also in the ways they can save one another.
Taylor likely cannot take on another 332-carry season like he won the rushing title with in 2021, not after he's missed 12 games across the past two seasons (eight of the 12 missed games were for health). But can he get to 250 carries? Can he hit 75% of that threshold and still allow the Colts to be the most run-centric team in the league?
That's the ideal scenario for tapping into Richardson's legs: as a tempting side dish rather than the main entree. The threat of a quarterback who outran LSU's defense for 80 yards keeping the ball will freeze a defensive end and give the Colts one more blocker for Taylor than he enjoyed during that 2021 rushing title. And a handful of times a game, Richardson can keep the ball and Taylor's threat can offer the same numbers advantage for him.
This has a chance to be one of the most explosive backfields in football history. It's going to be up to Steichen and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter to craft the right balance to preserve and maximize it.
But the two are 100% healthy, engaged and conditioned right now. That's never been the case before, and it's why the excitement is spreading.
"The offense is so loaded," linebacker E.J. Speed said. "This is a year where I won't be sitting down during games. I want to see the offense go out there and do what they do. I think there's going to be a lot of points this year.
"It's going to be fireworks."
7. I'm afraid the Colts are putting too much on that tandem, which ultimately comes down to something they cannot control: whether they get hurt anyway.
That concern is really about the secondary. Of all the parts of the team the Colts ran back, this part was puzzling because it's ultimately what cost them an AFC South title last year. Julian Blackmon's absence against the Texans put too many young players in compromised positions, and C.J. Stroud shredded them for 10.1 yards per attempt to erase Taylor's 188-yard performance.
That concern has only ratcheted up in the first few practices. Samson Ebukam tore his Achilles on Sunday, dampening a pass rush that is supposed to carry this young secondary. Indianapolis is trying out Ronnie Harrison Sr. as a free safety, something the 27-year-old hasn't done since high school.
Colts news: Colts lose defensive end Samson Ebukam for season due to torn Achilles
It's worth remembering that the Colts got 31 games combined out of Blackmon and Kenny Moore II last season; the more that number goes down, the more we'll see players like Harrison or Micah Abraham in those spots.
You can get by with young cornerbacks if you have awesome safeties. What can't happen is young players pulling each other up across the secondary, in a schedule that includes Stroud, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and Jordan Love.
Should the Colts sign Justin Simmons or Quandre Diggs?
8. Here's a possible explanation to playing with this fire right now: The Colts are monitoring the free agent market at safety, where they have been fans for some time.
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Options at the top include Justin Simmons and Quandre Diggs, who are age 30 and 31, respectively, and combine for five Pro Bowls. They are still unsigned because the safety market collectively crumbled, leading Blackmon back to the Colts on a one-year deal. These two veterans have the ability to skip the dog days of training camp and land a better deal once an injury or roster situation forces a contender's hand.
I sense Indianapolis is trying to figure out if it's in that place, as a contender and as a secondary. Chris Ballard hinted toward possibly signing a defensive back the other day. The Colts are experimenting with Harrison at free safety right now, as opposed to waiting until closer to the preseason games. They want answers ASAP.
Ballard is also intrigued to see how Richardson and Taylor look through a few weeks of camp and whether Cross can take an immense Year 3 leap under all this pressure. This is the patient space he lives in.
His challenge is whether he can give up on a draft pick to chase an outside veteran. It doesn't happen often. In fact, he has yet to replace a single starter with a veteran this offseason.
But if Cross doesn't go out and take the job in the next two weeks, a signing needs to happen. The upside on offense is that high, and Simmons and Diggs both fit in this defense as the missing piece. The window for these extra moves is here with Richardson in his second year of his rookie contract, which is how they have $25 million in cap space for 2024, according to OverTheCap.com.
More than a ceiling, the Colts need a floor here. What they can't allow to happen is a defense giving up so many explosive passing plays that it forces their young quarterback to navigate shootouts with a brand of reckless hero ball that might just get him hurt.
Cross has a chance to take this job. But the clock is finally ticking fast.
9. The Colts actually moved Harrison to full-time safety in the spring. One year ago, they told him he could join the team only if he was willing to move to linebacker. He played that position reasonably well enough in the absence of Shaquille Leonard, but they liked what he offered at their weakest position in the final few games after Blackmon's injury.
But really, this move is about Jaylon Carlies. The Colts drafted the Missouri safety in the fifth round this spring in order to move him to linebacker and felt confident enough in it to move Harrison to safety. Carlies has flashed so far in camp, looking fast and instinctive on run and pass defense. He'll have a learning curve, but expect him to factor in as a rookie, potentially as the starting "Will" in base defense.
Critical year coming for Kwity Paye, Laiatu Latu
10. Ebukam's Achilles tear is a brutal blow for a player coming off a career-high 9.5 sacks and 17 games.
His absence will ramp up the pressure on two players specifically: Laiatu Latu and Kwity Paye.
Paye came in down around eight pounds and motivated after the Colts picked up his fifth-year option. Now, the runway to a full-time edge rusher role is right there.
Latu was the one who should ideally come along slower, saving his best for passing downs. Perhaps that can still happen with Dayo Odeyingbo playing end on run downs. It also makes the Tyquan Lewis re-signing all the more sneaky, as he showed last year he's built perfectly for an inside-outside rotational role.
The pads come on this week. It'll be fascinating to watch how these transformed bodies step into the biggest moment of their football lives.
Contact Nate Atkins at natkins@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @NateAtkins_.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: 10 Colts thoughts on the start of training camp