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Election uncertainty creating 'soft patch' in economy: Economist

The September ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) was 47.2, below the estimated 47.5. Meanwhile, the September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.3, slightly above the expected 47.0. Investors are also digesting the August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) which showed there were more job openings that economists had been expecting. S&P Global Market Intelligence chief business economist and executive director Chris Williamson joins Catalysts to discuss the print and what it could mean for the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. "It's quite a strange time at the moment. What we're hearing from companies is there's been a bit of a pause in spending and in hiring at the moment ahead of the election. The uncertainty caused by the presidential election has really led to this soft patch that we've got at the moment," Williamson explains. However, he highlights that companies are becoming more confident about their outlook in a year's time. He notes that ISM price numbers fell, which is a positive sign. Meanwhile, with the employment picture weakening, it opens the door for further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, he explains. At the current moment, Williamson expects two 25-basis-point cuts from the Fed by the end of the year. "What we saw in the manufacturing survey, some respondents were saying they actually got a little bit worried about the outlook because of all this talk about all this stimulus needed. They've gone too far, demand slowing too much, Fed's getting worried. So the Fed wants to try to get that argument balance back, sort of rein it in to say that we're just doing what's necessary to keep things rolling along," Williamson adds. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Catalysts. This post was written by Melanie Riehl