On Friday, we expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to provide evidence that the U.S. job market is still healthy. Our estimate is for the August unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.3% after July's tumultuous uptick. The Street is looking for a decline to 4.2%. In either case, a jobless rate in this vicinity should reinforce the non-recessionary implications of the Atlanta Fed's Nowcast estimate for GDP growth of 2.5% in 3Q. A surprise increase in unemployment would require some parsing to determine if it is being driven by new entrants or a worrisome increase in layoffs. Jobless claims, reported weekly, are the first place we'd look for confirmation of a serious slowdown, and recent readings look healthy. They are probably the biggest reason the Street is looking for unemployment to ease. The four-week average declined to 231,500 last week from 238,250 a month prior. This is well below the critical 300,000 that would raise recession flags. The insured unemployment rate (continued claims divided by covered employment), which is based on this weekly report, is just 1.2% -- which is more than one standard deviation below the average of 2.7% since 1971. We expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 130,000. Consensus is about 160,000. Based on the Atlanta Fed's jobs calculator, we'd estimate that average monthly payroll gains of about 112,000 would be needed to hold the unemployment rate at 4.3% over the next year. The Kansas City Fed's Labor Market Conditions Indicators track 24 variables. They were little changed in July, but momentum slowed. The indicator, which has been trending lower, continued to show that labor conditions are above their long-run average. The momentum indicator declined from 0.16 to 0.02 but remained near its historical average. We expect that average hours worked stayed at 34.2 and that growth in average hourly earnings eased to 3.5%, which should be close to levels that don't stoke inflation.

Home Depot is the world's largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating more than 2,300 warehouse-format stores offering more than 30,000 products in store and 1 million products online in the US, Canada, and Mexico. Its stores offer numerous building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and decor products and provide various services, including home improvement installation services and tool and equipment rentals. The acquisition of Interline Brands in 2015 allowed Home Depot to enter the MRO business, which has been expanded through the tie-up with HD Supply (2020). The additions of the Company Store brought textiles to the lineup, and Redi Carpet added multifamily flooring, while the recent tie-up with SRS will help grow professional demand.

The major benchmarks are mixed after an in-line consumer price index. The headline CPI increased 0.2% in July, in line with the consensus. The year-over-over-year figure was 2.9%, below the 3.0% consensus. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) was a bit higher at 3.2%, with the overall number benefiting from easing energy prices. Inflation is making slow progress toward the Federal Reserve's 2% goal, and we note the latest year-over-year figure was the first sub-3% reading since early 2021, which could enable the Fed to ease interest rates in September.

Home Depot is the world's largest home improvement retailer, with sales of $153 billion for the fiscal year ended January 28, 2024. The company, which is based in Atlanta, sells appliances, tools, paint, lumber, plumbing, electrical, garden and other home-improvement supplies in warehouse-sized stores that average 104,000 enclosed square feet and an additional 24,000 in the outside garden department. About 37% of sales came from building materials (electrical, lumber, plumbing); 33% from decor (appliances, flooring, kitchen, bath, paint) and 30% from hardlines (hardware, tools garden). The company's total selling space is about 240 million square feet. At the end of FY24, Home Depot had 2,335 stores. Approximately 28% of U.S. stores are in California, Florida and Texas. About 8% of the stores are in Canada and 4% are in Mexico. The company's fiscal year ends on the Sunday nearest to January 31. The current fiscal 2025 has 53 weeks.