On Friday, we expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to provide evidence that the U.S. job market is still healthy. Our estimate is for the August unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.3% after July's tumultuous uptick. The Street is looking for a decline to 4.2%. In either case, a jobless rate in this vicinity should reinforce the non-recessionary implications of the Atlanta Fed's Nowcast estimate for GDP growth of 2.5% in 3Q. A surprise increase in unemployment would require some parsing to determine if it is being driven by new entrants or a worrisome increase in layoffs. Jobless claims, reported weekly, are the first place we'd look for confirmation of a serious slowdown, and recent readings look healthy. They are probably the biggest reason the Street is looking for unemployment to ease. The four-week average declined to 231,500 last week from 238,250 a month prior. This is well below the critical 300,000 that would raise recession flags. The insured unemployment rate (continued claims divided by covered employment), which is based on this weekly report, is just 1.2% -- which is more than one standard deviation below the average of 2.7% since 1971. We expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by 130,000. Consensus is about 160,000. Based on the Atlanta Fed's jobs calculator, we'd estimate that average monthly payroll gains of about 112,000 would be needed to hold the unemployment rate at 4.3% over the next year. The Kansas City Fed's La