'Ontario's reached a turning point': Adults living with major illness in the province to double by 2040, study warns

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Millions more people in Ontario will be living with chronic illness by 2040, according to a new study from the University of Toronto. The report warns that over the next 20 years, the number of adults living with a major illness in the province is expect to double, creating a strain on Ontario's health-care system.

"Given these findings, it's clear that new solutions are needed now, including significant efforts in chronic disease prevention and management," Adalsteinn Brown, dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health and co-author of the study, says in a news release published Wednesday.

What the study found

The study, published by the school and in collaboration with the Ontario Hospital Association (OHA), predicts 3.1 million adults will be living with major illness in Ontario by 2040. That's up from 1.8 million recorded in 2020. That'll require significant hospital care, as one in four adults over age 30 in the province will live with a major illness by that year.

Moreover, the study warns the number of illnesses any person will have could also increase significantly. Those mostly include conditions that rise with age, such as osteoarthritis, diabetes, cancer, dementia and respiratory diseases. Multimorbidity, or the presence of two or more co-morbid chronic conditions, is also a rising issue.

An aging population

According to the report, Canadian life expectancy has grown to 81.5 years as of 2020-2022. In the coming decades as Baby Boomers age, the number of seniors above age 65 — as well as people age 85 and older — will reach "unprecedented highs."

In Ontario alone, the population is expected to grow by 36 per cent over the next two decades, with the 65-and-older age group seeing the largest increase. By 2040, the number of people above age 65 living in the province is expected to hit 4.2 million — a 60 per cent rise from 2.6 million in 2020.

"Our projections suggest that more Ontarians will be living with major illness, and the number of cases will rise for many chronic conditions," Brown continued. "Given these findings, it's clear that new solutions are needed now, including significant efforts in chronic disease prevention and management."

With its findings, the study calls on Ontario's health system to take immediate action, pushing the province to take aggressive action on prevention, early detection and effective treatment of chronic disease. It recalls past successes, including reductions in smoking and improved cardiovascular health management, that helped reduce the burden of chronic disease.

Moreover, the report demands that Ontario urgently needs a long-term health services capacity plan, "so the province is truly ready to meet the needs of its rapidly growing and aging population." That includes implementing services that encourage older adults to age at home to ensure long-term care facilities and hospital beds can be used for people who need it most.

"Working together and embracing innovation in all its forms, we can create a future with less disease, better treatment and universal access to care," Anthony Dale, president and CEO of the OHA, shared in the release. "It's within our reach."

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