Chiefs-Bills prediction: Two factors I can’t ignore when making KC-Buffalo pick

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in Orchard Park, New York.

Here are the game details:

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita)

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line: Bills by 2.

Chiefs-Bills game prediction

This pick has me torn.

I understand the underlying numbers supporting Buffalo (8-2) being a two-point favorite in this game. I think Bills quarterback Josh Allen is awesome. I believe coach Sean McDermott is underrated — to the point I ranked him the third-best NFL coach on KC radio this summer and was nearly escorted out of the studio for firing off a crazy take.

McDermott and the Bills have earned respect this year, though. They traded receiver Stefon Diggs and faced salary-cap hell this offseason, yet emerged with a team roughly the same strength as last season, when a missed field goal kept them from getting an overtime shot against the Chiefs in the playoffs.

And yet, for all those positives, I see reasons to be worried about how Buffalo might fare against KC on Sunday.

It starts with injuries. Dalton Kincaid missing the game is a huge loss, especially considering the Chiefs are among the NFL’s worst at defending tight ends. That was a matchup the Bills could’ve exploited, but it won’t be as easy now with the team mainly relying on Dawson Knox — someone known more at this point for his blocking than his receiving.

Receiver Keon Coleman being out is also significant. Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves challenging opponents with aggressive man coverage, and Coleman being unavailable (with fellow receiver Amari Cooper listed as questionable, too) leaves the Bills with fewer answers than they might’ve had previously.

Buffalo also loves to go to six offensive linemen to run the ball, but KC doesn’t seem like the ideal opponent to try this against. Going heavy only forces talented Chiefs linebacker Leo Chenal onto the field more, and the Chiefs, in general, have done a great job this year of shutting down running lanes even while going against vaunted rushing attacks.

KC obviously has its share of worries headed into this one — especially considering how close their margins of victory have been over less-talented opponents in recent weeks.

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still has that nagging ankle injury that hampers his mobility just a touch. He played well in stretches last week but missed two huge throws — one to Xavier Worthy and the other to Travis Kelce — that were exceptionally costly in a low-possession game.

Meanwhile, KC’s offense has little margin for error because of how it’s succeeding with grind-it-out drives. The Chiefs are getting no explosive plays with the run or pass, and the Bills have more potential to make things easier on themselves Sunday by simply hitting a big play or two that KC hasn’t proven it can execute.

The Chiefs’ defense also has struggled to close out games while remaining shaky with certain coverage areas. DVOA’s all-encompassing stats rank the Chiefs at 25th or worse in both “middle” and “short middle” throws by opponents, with pass-catchers too often finding those openings near the line of scrimmage. Buffalo losing Kincaid helps the Chiefs but doesn’t eliminate this as a weakness altogether.

My mind keeps coming back to two points, though.

One, I think the Chiefs will be able to run the ball. KC’s offensive line had its worst run-blocking game of the season last week against Denver, and guys like Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith are prideful enough to want to answer with a better effort. Buffalo hasn’t been great defending the run this year, and it also has a history of not wanting to match opponents’ big bodies on offense with linebackers.

That means no one should be surprised if Chiefs coach Andy Reid goes heavy on two-tight-end sets while leaning on his O-line (and running back Kareem Hunt) to try to win a game in the trenches.

Then there’s the Mahomes factor. Not only has he been a magician on third downs this year, but this type of underdog role always seems to bring out his best. Add in that he probably remains unhappy that he was pelted by snowballs and iceballs after last year’s game in Buffalo, and one could easily see the rowdy opposing crowd fueling an elevated level of play.

These two teams are evenly matched. And one could easily argue that the Bills have more avenues to a win, as their big-play potential on offense is something the Chiefs can’t match.

If this game plays out like most others for the Chiefs this season, however — with extended ball possession, few penalties and an effective run game — I like KC’s chances.

I see both teams having success offensively, with Allen and Mahomes both willing to put their bodies on the line with scrambles given the magnitude of this game.

It’s still difficult to go against Mahomes in a setting where he’s typically at his best — no matter how his previous week went.

Give me the Chiefs for both the win and cover.

Chiefs 27, Bills 24

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 24, Broncos 10 (Actual: Chiefs 16-14) ❌

2024 record vs. spread: 5-3-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 30-19-1 (61%).