What does Trump's win mean for EVs?

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency signals a potential shift for the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market.

Throughout his campaign, Trump criticized policies aimed at boosting EV sales, vowing to dismantle environmental regulations he deemed burdensome—all while receiving over $100 million in donations from Elon Musk.

As he assumes office, the direction of federal EV support is likely to change drastically, affecting automakers, energy policy, and consumers.

Emission standards under scrutiny

One of the primary targets in Trump’s crosshairs is the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulation on tailpipe emissions. While this regulation only mandates automakers to reduce vehicle emissions, it effectively requires them to produce EVs and plug-in hybrids to meet the outlined emissions standards.

With Trump’s administration in charge, an executive order could quickly roll back these standards, easing pressure on automakers to meet current emissions goals by transitioning to EVs.

Related: GM’s explosive growth: 300,000 EVs sold and climbing

States could lose the ability to impose emissions standards

Additionally, Trump’s advisers have drafted language aimed at revisiting Clean Air Act waivers that allow California to enforce its own, stricter pollution standards—a move that could weaken the state’s power to drive the national EV agenda.

California not only leads the country in EV adoption, it is also responsible for creating the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) program, which requires new vehicles to reach 100% zero-emission and clean plug-in hybrid-electric status in California by the 2035 model year.

So far, 15 states, including California, have adopted the program. Across states that have adopted the ZEV program, the average number of EVs per 10,000 residents is more than double that of states that haven’t adopted the program.

EV tax credits may be narrowed

Another anticipated change is the revision of EV tax incentives. Under President Biden, the Inflation Reduction Act provided generous tax credits to make EVs more affordable, helping boost demand. Trump’s administration, however, may seek to narrow eligibility, especially around the so-called “leasing loophole,” which allows commercial fleets to benefit from credits without strict sourcing requirements for materials or manufacturing locations.

Oil industry advocates have long opposed these credits, arguing they unfairly boost EVs, and Trump could respond by scaling back these incentives, impacting both individual buyers and companies relying on credits to reduce EV costs.

Related: I went to an EV expo. Here are the brands people lined up to test drive

A return to fossil fuels

Trump’s energy policy promises to revitalize fossil fuel production, including offshore oil drilling and pipeline construction, to position the U.S. as a top natural gas exporter.

“You are looking at, overall, a ‘drill baby drill’ philosophy,” said Dan Eberhart, chief executive officer of oilfield services company Canary LLC. “You are going to see offshore lease sales, you are going to see pipelines move much quicker, you are going to see fracking on federal lands and a mindset that is focused on lowering energy costs for consumers.”

With priorities shifted back to oil and gas, the EV industry could see fewer federal initiatives aimed at growing the nation’s charging network or incentivizing further EV production.

Final thoughts

While Trump’s victory doesn’t necessarily end EV growth in the U.S., it introduces significant obstacles. Automakers, especially those heavily invested in electrification, may face tougher market conditions and reduced incentives.

Meanwhile, states like California, which have championed EV adoption, could find themselves in regulatory battles with the federal government to maintain their environmental standards.

As Trump’s administration takes shape, the future of EVs will depend on how quickly and comprehensively these policy changes are implemented. For now, the industry faces a period of heightened uncertainty.

Related: Growing new car affordability crisis: Consumers want more, but can't afford it