This Is What a 20% Universal Tariff Could Do to Your Next Entry-Level Auto

• President-elect Donald Trump promised to hike tariffs for imports from everywhere, including Mexico and Canada, where many cheap domestic vehicles are currently built.

• The idea behind the push for universal tariffs is to compel companies to build US factories and hire American workers.

• We take a look at three of the current most-affordable cars in the States to see how a 20% tariff might affect their prices.

Whither the USMCA, the first Trump administration’s bi-partisan reworking of the North American Free Trade Agreement? While USMCA was little more than a modest update of NAFTA, it did maintain low costs for imported Canadian- and Mexican-assembled cars and trucks.

But Donald J. Trump campaigned hard on hiking tariffs for imports from everywhere, Mexico and Canada included, under the theory that foreign manufacturers that want to remain competitive in the US will build US factories and hire Americans to build all sorts of goods in them. Many American manufacturers—from Master Lock to Whirlpool to John Deere to makers of flat-screen televisions—have moved production to Mexico in recent decades in order to take advantage of low wages.

Trump has spoken of imposing a “universal” tariff on all imported goods of as much as 20%, with the exception of Chinese goods, which would be subject to a tariff of at least 60%. (The Biden administration’s tariff of 100% on Chinese autos applies to its electric vehicles only.)

Lest you consider such tariffs a campaign promise that could languish in the manner of the first Trump administration’s many “infrastructure weeks,” Politico reported a week after the election that the president-elect’s trade chief from his first term, Robert Lighthizer, already is preparing to “aggressively sell the plans for massive new tariffs on imports” according to “those close” to Trump.

Assuming 20% on Mexican goods, the Trump tariffs will affect some of the most affordable cars and SUVs you can buy today, as well as some of the most affordable premium brand models, like the BMW 2-Series and 3-Series, both built in Mexico for the US market.

We Do the Math

Let’s look at how a 20% tariff could affect key, popular low-priced models sold in the US. Automakers could eat all or part of the higher MSRP, of course, but on most of these models, that would not happen without automakers taking a serious hit to their net incomes.

(Please note that these prices assume the automakers will not add the tariff to their destination charges, which in most cases are the same price no matter where the vehicle is sourced.)

To calculate estimated price with a 20% tariff, we multiply the sticker price of each model by 1.2 before adding the current destination charge amount to get the estimated price with the tariff.

2025 NISSAN VERSA

This is officially the cheapest set of model-year 2025 wheels you can buy in the US, and the only car with an MSRP starting under $20,000. Any leftover 2024 Mitsubishi Mirages for US dealers should have been imported already, so they will not suffer any tariffs.

Like the discontinued Mirage, any 2025 model that crosses into the US before the anticipated Trump tariffs take effect should come with the old, pre-tariff Monroney on the window.

Those tariffs will be jarring: Even if the Trump administration goes with a lower 10% universal rate, that would bump a stripped Versa S with five-speed manual above $20,000 even before you add in the requisite $1,140 destination charge. Here’s what we’ve calculated using the new tariff math:

• S with five-speed manual: This is a true unicorn, because base-base models typically are built for daily rental agencies, but daily rental agencies buy zero stick-shifts for their fleets. And what kind of manual enthusiast today settles for a new car with just five gears. Current MSRP: $18,330; plus 20% tariff: $20,628SV

• CVT: We spec’d one out online to approximate what you’re more likely to find on a dealer’s lot. To the SV, which comes with a CVT standard, we added carpeted floor mats and a trunk mat, a USB charging cable set, interior accent lighting, door pocket lighting, and hideaway trunk cargo net. The paint color we chose just for fun and aesthetics, gray sky pearl, is a $425 option currently, so adjust accordingly. The Versa’s SV price after adding the universal tariff quite figuratively made our jaw drop. Consider under-$30K the new under-$25K. Current MSRP: $22,877; plus 20% tariff: $27,224.40

Note that you will not see these increases if Nissan can truck in its entire allotment of final-model-year Versas before imposition of a tariff. We’ll keep an eye on this car and will find the next-lowest price vehicle sold in the US to track when the last Versa rolls off to that used car dealer in the sky.

2025 CHEVROLET TRAX

This attractive large-subcompact crossover/utility built in Mexico is one of the cheapest new vehicles on the market, with an advertised base price barely above $20k before destination. As one of General Motors’ most popular non-truck models, it has affected the automaker’s bottom-line just a tad because it brings down the company’s overall average transaction price when mixed in with all those $50,000-plus Chevy Silverados and Suburbans and $70,000-plus GMC Yukon Denalis and Cadillac Escalades.

Because absolute-base models are built largely for daily rental companies, we’re going to track the prices of a lightly equipped Trax LT1 and a moderately equipped Activ (convenience packages and floor mats, yes; sport pedal kits, no) as well as the base-base model.

• LS FWD: With nothing but the $1,095 destination charge added, the Trax is one of few vehicles left available for pocket-change over a $20,000 bill. If President-elect Trump settles for a 10% universal tariff, MSRP would be $23,535. At 20%, it would start above $25k.Current MSRP: $21,495; plus 20% tariff: $25,575

• LT1 FWD: We added the convenience package, which includes heated steering wheel and front seats, keyless open, and winter/summer floor mats. Current MSRP: $25,085 +20% tariff: $29,833

• Activ FWD: Throw in the interior protection package, sunroof package with wireless charging, cargo net and three years of Sirius/XM and it still comes in well under $30…today. Current MSRP: $27,209; plus 20% tariff: $32,431.80

2024 FORD MAVERICK

No 2025 model yet, but this popular Mexican import remains the cheapest pickup on the market. The midsize US-assembled Ranger starts $8,900 north of the compact Maverick.

That gap certainly would narrow with a 20% tariff added to the Maverick, though most US-built cars and trucks would face cost increases from any imported parts and components used in assembly, which means the Ranger’s price also could rise. Here’s what we’ve got:

• XL FWD with 2.0L EcoBoost I-4: Ford’s consumer website boasts it is “anything but basic,” so we added nothing but destination. We did not add in the “acquisition fee” ford.com automatically tacks on for leases. Current MSRP: $25,515; plus 20% tariff: $30,299

• XLT FWD with 2.5L Hybrid: The mid-level Maverick trims up the XL with a more premium look, including painted aluminum wheels in place of the steel “poverty” wheels. There are myriad truck bed organization options and accessories that can add up pretty quickly, so we took a light hand to represent a Maverick customer trading in a crossover, and who might open the tonneau once a year to help friends or family move into a new condo. The hybrid four-cylinder adds $1,750 and other options including the Co-Pilot 360 driver-assist package, hard tri-fold tonneau, spray-in bedliner, bed extender, keyless entry keypad, four-piece splash guards, four-pin hitch receiver (just in case), cargo bed net, tailgate lock, and floor liners with carpet mats. Current MSRP: $31,270; plus 20% tariff: $37,205