When Will We Know Who Has Won The US Election?
As Americans head to the polls for the last day of voting in the 2024 US presidential election — an estimated 82 million have already voted — the finish line for this year's neck-and-neck race is finally in sight.
That's not to say that this year's election is going to necessarily be straightforward. In some presidential races the victor has been named late on election night, or early the next morning. But given the razor-thin margins in many states this year and the contentious (and unfounded) claims of electoral fraud in previous elections, it looks as though media outlets may well wait longer before projecting who has won.
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From when we can roughly expect a result to the key swing states to look out for, this is your cheat sheet to everything you need to know about the US presidential election.
When is the US presidential election?
The US presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024. The winner of the election will serve four years in the White House starting from their inauguration on January 20, 2025.
The 22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution limits the number of times a person can be elected to the office of president of the United States to two terms, meaning that if Donald Trump is re-elected, this will be his final four years in office.
'No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once,' the official 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution notes.
Voters in America will also be electing not just a president, but Congressional candidates for seats in the House of Representatives and the US Senate, too.
What happens on US election day?
While the opening times of polls varies from state to state, they generally open between 6am and 7am.
Votes are counted in each state after their respective polls close, with poll closing times varying from state to state but generally they close at 7pm local time.
The range of time zones across the US, however, means that while voting on the east coast might have closed — with officials starting to tabulate ballots — voters in states like Alaska and Hawaii may still be making their way to the polls.
A state can be 'called' by the US news networks for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump as soon as it is deemed impossible for the other side to win — many pollsters operate with the understanding that as soon as there's a 98% probability of a win on one side, they'll declare it. This method has previously wreaked havoc in bygone elections. In 2020, typically right-leaning Fox News declared Arizona for Joe Biden. It was the first TV network to do so, enraging millions of Trump fans who are Fox viewers.
Of course, in many ways, referring to 'election day' when an estimated 82 million Americans have already cast their vote, feels semi-redundant. Georgia’s first day of early voting 'shattered records', according to state officials, while an 'unheard of' 97,000-plus voted on day one in Wisconsin, which is a key swing state.
What time do polls in America open and close?
While the opening times of polls varies from state to state, they generally open between 6am and 7am. Votes are counted in each state after their respective polls close, with poll closing times varying from state to state but generally hitting the 7pm local time mark. The range of time zones across the US means while voting on the east coast might have closed, with officials starting to tabulate ballots, voters in states like Alaska and Hawaii may still be making their way to the polls.
The first polls will close in eastern Kentucky and much of Indiana at 6pm ET (11pm GMT). Democrats’ expectations are low in the two Republican-leaning states, where Trump is virtually guaranteed to win both, and Republicans are expected to easily hold most of the two states’ House seats as well.
The polls fully close in six states an hour later at 7pm ET (12pm GMT), which is when the first true indicators of the race will become evident as it's when polls will close in the battleground state of Georgia. Biden won Georgia by just 0.2 points in 2020, after Trump carried the state by 5 points four years earlier. This year, Trump appears to have a slight advantage over Harris in the state, but a strong night for the Democrats in the Peach state could still swing it. As Georgia starts to count its ballots, polls will also close in Virginia, where both parties hope to flip a House seat.
An hour later, at 8pm ET (1am GMT), polls will fully close in 16 states, including Pennsylvania. Whoever wins Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes is much more likely to win the White House, with Harris opting to host her final campaign rally on November 4 in the Rust Belt state with appearances and performances from Oprah Winfrey and Lady Gaga.
At 9pm ET (2am GMT), polls close in a further 15 states, including Michigan and Wisconsin, both of which are critical for Harris to win if the Democrats are to be successful.
By the time polls close in Hawaii and most of Alaska at 12am ET (5am GMT), Americans should have a much better sense of who will be moving into the White House come January, although it's not always plain sailing when declaring a winner.
What are the key American swing states to watch?
Swing states hold the key to the White House. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin can all lean either Republican or Democrat, making them hard to predict and meaning they could go either way this year.
Harris’s most likely path to 270 electoral votes (the amount she needs to win) runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin this year, so Trump could secure a second term if he can pick off even one of those states.
When will we know the result of the US presidential election?
If 2020 is any indication, the nation may have to wait a bit longer than tomorrow to hear a final call on who has won the presidential race.
In 2020, the Associated Press did not declare Biden as the winner of the presidential election until November 7 at 11.26am ET – four days after the first polls closed. And in 2016, it took until 2.29am ET the morning after election day to declare Trump as the winner.
In 2012, when Barack Obama secured a second term, his victory was projected before midnight on polling day itself.
However, the 2000 election between George W Bush and Al Gore was a notable exception. The vote was held on November 7, but the two campaigns went to war over a tight contest in Florida and the race was not decided until December 12. The US Supreme Court voted to end the state's recount process, which kept Bush in place as winner and handed him the White House.
What happens if there is a tie?
It is possible that the two candidates could end up in a tie because they have the same number of electoral college votes – 269 each.
While this hasn't happened for 200 years, given how tight this year's race is, it's a very real possibility. If the election did result in a tie, members of the House of Representatives — the lower chamber of the US Congress — would vote to choose the president in a process known as a contingent election. The Senate — which is the upper chamber — would then vote to choose a vice-president.
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