Everything you need to know about next week's US presidential election
We’re just days away from one of the most dramatic election cycles in recent US history. Donald Trump is running for a third time, having won against Hillary Clinton in 2016 and then lost against Joe Biden in 2020. Kamala Harris stepped up to the top of the ticket after Biden had a disastrous debate performance against Trump early in the election cycle, leading many to question his ability to run for another term.
The campaign trail has been nothing short of eventful — from a Trump assassination attempt at one rally to a Brat Summer for Harris supporters; from a late Taylor Swift endorsement to JD Vance on The Joe Rogan Experience. If Harris wins, she will be the first ever female president, and only the second ever person of colour to lead the country. The stakes are high, the polls are close, and America’s next steps hang in the balance.
So, who’s leading in the polls? Most projections have shown a race on a knife’s edge. Some show a slight Trump advantage in swing states, but there’s no telling if that will hold — plus a widening gender gap shows women are much more likely to vote for Harris than men, and they are also much more likely to turn up to vote in the first place. Could that change everything in a race with such wafer-thin margins? Here’s everything you need to know.
Election day rundown: What happens when?
The big day is Tuesday, November 5 — although actually, early voting has already started in most states. The US is a very rural country, so postal votes are much more common than in the UK. During 2020, mainly because of fears about Covid, postal votes soared — especially among Democrats. This time around, it looks like Republicans have signed up in large numbers to cast their vote that way as well.
In 2020, we waited days for votes to be counted. Expect things to be a little quicker this time around, though it’s still entirely possible we won’t have initial results on Wednesday. It’ll all come down to the swing states — and some of those will probably demand recounts.
Why is Inauguration Day in January?
Unlike in the UK, where results come in almost immediately, the US process is prolonged by its population size, time zones, and complex voting system.
Here's how it works: American voters technically elect a slate of electors who then vote for the president in December, as part of the Electoral College system. While results usually point to a winner within 24 hours of polls closing, final certifications can take weeks. And after all that? The president takes the oath on Inauguration Day — 20th January — giving time for transitions, legal checks, and more recounts if needed.
So after the election is called, Biden will stay in place until late January. It’s considered poor form to push any legislation during this period, meaning the president is more of a figurehead during this time, while someone else sorts out the logistics of their new, incoming presidency — that’s why it’s often called the “lame duck period”.
Trump’s legal woes: Why isn't he barred from running?
Despite multiple indictments and ongoing investigations, Trump’s legal troubles don’t disqualify him from running. Under US law, only impeachment with conviction could prevent someone from seeking office again, and Trump was ultimately acquitted in both impeachment trials — one for inciting the January 6th insurrection, and another for attempting to persuade President Zelensky of Ukraine to dig up dirt on the Biden family in exchange for help in their war against Russia. Those acquittals happened because Republicans are in charge of the Senate, which is otherwise known as the upper chamber of Congress.
Without a felony conviction explicitly blocking him from federal office, Trump is cleared for the ballot. And if he becomes president again, he may well be able to avoid ever going to prison. In the event of a Trump loss, however, things might not be so rosy — he’ll be treated like just another civilian in the courts.
What are the big issues — and what’s at stake?
Abortion is probably the most talked-about issue in this election, with good reason. If Trump wins, thousands of American women could end up unable to access abortion at all — and some might even lose access to fertility treatments and contraception.
Immigration is also a big one. Trump has promised mass deportations on day one, while Harris has also promised to be “tough” on illegal immigration, though she supports a path to citizenship for people who were brought to the US from overseas as children.
The Israel-Gaza conflict has also drawn international focus. Biden is a big supporter of Israel, and Harris has also been supportive of the country — but she also told protesters against the war in Gaza, “I hear you,” at a rally this week and promised to work to end the war “as soon as possible”. Trump has a very pro-Israel track record and was friendly with Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, throughout his first time in government, though he’s claimed (without details) that he would also help end the war. It’s actually hard to imagine how either candidate would fare on this issue, not least because part of Trump’s appeal is he wants to “end the forever wars” — in other words, stop America getting up in other countries’ business. That could mean less US military support for Israel under a second Trump presidency. Or it could mean simply turning a blind eye to the situation and refusing to intervene.
What Trump (and JD Vance) stand for
Trump is anti-immigration to the point of xenophobia — although polls show he actually does well with Latino voters, and in particular Latino men. That’s one of the reasons why he publicly distanced himself from a comedian who recently called Puerto Rico an “island of garbage” at one of his rallies.
Project 2025 is a much-mentioned manifesto put together by Trump allies and some people who used to work in the first Trump administration. Although Donald himself has claimed he doesn’t know anything about it, that’s likely just because people find its contents pretty gross. It talks about encouraging women to have lots more children when they’re younger, keeping them in the home, and phasing out fertility treatments, for example. It also suggests getting rid of the Department of Education entirely and bringing religion back into schools, as well as banning books that seem too progressive or that mention LGBT issues.
It’s extremely hardline, and Trump’s running mate JD Vance — the person who would be his vice president — wrote the introduction. So expect at least some of these ideas to make it into government if Trump wins.
What Harris (and Tim Walz) stand for
Kamala Harris champions more progressive social policies, but she’s still not exactly a leftie. She doesn’t support universal healthcare (like we have on the NHS) in the way more progressive politicians do. But she does support broad healthcare access and reproductive rights, and she’s promised to protect the environment (while Trump has suggested rolling back most green legislation.)
Harris used to work as an attorney general, so she takes a “tough on crime” attitude toward things. She is not a “Defund the Police” style Democrat. Nevertheless, she voiced her support for Black Lives Matter protests. And her running mate, Tim Walz, is the governor of Minnesota, where BLM protests began. Walz was the one who didn’t bring in the National Guard to crush protesters, even when Republicans kept asking him to. He has emphasised compassion and nuance in his own appearances at rallies, and he’s known for working with both Republicans and Democrats. That’s why people see him as a “unity candidate” for vice-president.
Harris also believes in tech regulation — which is probably why Elon Musk wasn’t pictured leaping in the air at her rally.
Congress and the Supreme Court: Why they matter
The outcome of the election doesn’t just determine the president — it also shapes the makeup of Congress and the lean of the Supreme Court. Congress — which is made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate — can block or green-light major policy shifts. The House generally has the younger, more fiery set of politicians, and the Senate is a place known for cooler, more nuanced debate with more experienced and seasoned figures. Getting your laws passed as the president is easy if your party holds both the House and the Senate, as they’ll quickly sign off on any legislation you put on the table. But if the other side has one, or, worse, both? Then you could end up unable to achieve basically anything.
The Supreme Court interprets the government’s policies and has ultimate sway over constitutional issues, like reproductive rights or federal powers. There are nine seats on the Supreme Court — which some people call SCOTUS, or Supreme Court of The United States — which means that it usually leans either more liberal or more conservative, depending who’s on it. At the moment, very right-wing conservatives have a majority, thanks to Trump.
A SCOTUS appointment is for life — you can’t fire a Supreme Court judge, so confirming them is a big deal. They can only be replaced if one dies (as Ruth Bader Ginsburg did at the end of Trump’s presidency) or if one retires (which is extremely rare.)
When Trump appointed three new judges to the Supreme Court during his first presidency, he changed the balance to make it ultra-conservative. The court then ended up overturning Roe v Wade, the legislation that had made abortion a federal right. If Harris wins, she plans to bring in a piece of legislation through Congress that would put that right back in place again, without needing the Supreme Court to be involved.
Without Roe v Wade in place, the issue went back to individual states. That’s why we’ve seen wildly different experiences for pregnant women based on where they live. In New York and New Jersey, for instance, there are still multiple abortion clinics and hospitals that will perform the procedure. In states like Florida, “heartbeat bills” have effectively outlawed abortion by banning it after six weeks of pregnancy, and many abortion clinics have shut down or been replaced with “crisis centres” staffed by anti-abortion advocates.
Some states have taken it even further, like when the Alabama state supreme court brought in “personhood” for embryos, thus making IVF temporarily illegal and even putting contraception in jeopardy.
Harris can only get legislation through to protect abortion if she has a majority of Democrats in Congress. Even then, it might be tough. That’s why it doesn’t just matter who wins the White House on November 5th when it comes to abortion.
As Election Day approaches, the contest is set to be a defining moment not just for America but for international politics as well. Whether it’s Trump’s comeback or Harris’s shot at making history, this election is all about legacy and what Americans see as their future — and women are very much on the ballot.
Holly Baxter is the executive editor at The Independent’s US office in New York and the author of Clickbait
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