Think England are bad? Potential last-16 opponents Netherlands in crisis after ‘appalling’ defeat

Ronald Koeman has won a European Championship in Germany after a group-stage defeat. Admittedly, it was 36 years ago, as a player and not a manager and to a country – the Soviet Union – that no longer exists as the same entity. But if the precedents from the past offer encouragement, the present bodes less well. Koeman had said the day before facing Austria that he did not want to finish third in Group D. The Netherlands lost and duly did.

“We knew that if we are third in the group then we will get a big nation in the next round, if it is England, if it is Spain,” sighed Koeman. The probability is that it is England and if Dutch pessimism may be misguided, given the resounding mediocrity of Gareth Southgate’s troops so far, a reaction to the loss to Austria was to suggest Koeman’s latest venture across the border might not end in continental glory, but with a different type of finality. “If we fail, please ask me again,” said Koeman, when quizzed if his future contained the sack. If he, like his team, is into a form of sudden death, a battering in Berlin came with a warning for their prospects; and, by extension, his.

“We will have to play better than today,” he said. “Today, it was appalling.” Koeman has long brought a frankness to his management; sometimes in previous jobs his comments have felt too bracing for his players. As various aspects of the Netherlands’ performance were described as “awful” or “very bad”, the scrutiny fell on Koeman. The baton of underachievement has been passed around at Euro 2024: if the Netherlands seemed unlikely recipients when they fashioned a host of openings in beating Poland and only a contentiously disallowed goal from Xavi Simons denied them victory over France, the Dutch position in the pool was not what they had expected.

“Of course I am focused on our strategy,” said Koeman, but he is left with a host of issues to resolve; in defence, midfield and attack. A theory before the tournament was that, along with France and perhaps Germany, the Netherlands boasted the most enviable options at the back. They lack a world-class goalkeeper but entered Euro 2024 with six clean sheets in seven games. “Normally we have good defenders. We don’t get a lot of goals against us,” said Koeman.

But Austria got three. That all three stemmed from the same flank where, perhaps needlessly, Koeman had made a change was damning. He brought in Lutsharel Geertruida in at right-back, but the Feyenoord player struggled. That Denzel Dumfries and Frimpong, if as wing-backs, won Serie A and the Bundesliga this season gives them compelling cases to play instead. Dumfries, the regular in recent years, surely ought to return.

In the middle, Virgil van Dijk was not at his commanding best. Next to him, the choice of Stefan de Vrij, rather than Matthijs de Ligt, Mickey van de Ven or Nathan Ake felt quixotic; Ake has instead been deployed at left-back, and was outstanding against Poland, but Koeman has the option of a Champions League finalist, in Ian Maatsen, in that position. Whichever, he may not have played his best defence yet.

In midfield, the manager merits some sympathy. It would have been very different, with more composure and creativity, but for Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners' ill-timed injuries; maybe Marten de Roon would have figured ahead of Jerdy Schouten and Joey Veerman as well. Veerman’s 35-minute outing against Austria, curtailed ignominiously by a first-half substitution, prompted a question if his international career is over. It felt premature but Koeman’s search for a solution continues: only Tijani Reijnders deserves to be a constant. Simons, a huge talent, was first benched against Austria and then came on to make Cody Gakpo’s goal. Yet, Koeman lamented, his side started with a man advantage in the central battle and lost it.

If Koeman is yet to work out what to do with Simons, he seems similarly indecisive when it comes to the right wing. Simons, Frimpong and Donyell Malen have all started there, each being substituted. That may represent good news for England’s makeshift left-back, Kieran Trippier.

One possibility would be to dispense with the right winger altogether, pair Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay in attack and play 3-5-2. Koeman has not been wedded to 4-3-3 for his entire career. It would, however, represent reverting to the blueprint of his predecessor, Louis van Gaal. He already has part of it, however. The method of changing games is Wout Weghorst, the cult hero who seems perhaps the tournament’s most dangerous specialist substitute.

Koeman has got his Plan B sorted. Plan A presents rather more problems. For one of the all-time Dutch greats, a man who knows what it is like to win a European Championships in Germany, the sense a second successive defeat would be terminal heightens the need for a triumphant formula now. Stuttering when they could have been surging, the Netherlands have made the last 16 via the back door. It hasn’t been total football; now Koeman can’t afford it to be total failure.