Six F1 races to go: the factors that will decide if Verstappen or Norris wins title

After a season that opened looking like it would deliver an all too familiar march to the title for Max Verstappen when the Dutchman won seven of the first 10 races, the 2024 world championship battle has been turned on its head. It is now set for a gripping run-in over the final six meetings, beginning this weekend in Austin, with several major factors that could shape the championship.

Numbers game

The numbers remain on the side of Verstappen, he has a 52-point lead (albeit one whittled down from a high of 84 after the British GP) with six races and three sprint races in hand. Including the bonus point for fastest lap there are 180 on the table, a maximum of 26 from each race and eight in a sprint race. The onus remains on Lando Norris, who needs to outscore Verstappen by a fraction under nine points per meeting. A win in all nine races if Verstappen claims second would not be enough, as the Dutchman would still seal his fourth title by one point. Regardless, said scenario remains highly unlikely, Norris needs to put daylight between himself and Verstappen. The differential between first and third is a 10-point gain but this is a contest beyond mere mathematics with the variables involved suggesting there remains no little drama to come.

Development upgrades

The most immediately fascinating factor in the run-in should be on display this weekend, when teams bring the final major upgrades to their cars in Austin. Red Bull and McLaren are expected to do so but from intriguingly different perspectives. For Red Bull these developments will be an effort to solve the balance issues that have plagued their car since their last tranche of upgrades, potentially compounded this weekend when the FIA clamped down on their use of a ride-height device deemed illegal. Verstappen described it as “a monster” and they have now not won a race since Spain in June. If they have solved it, Verstappen really should seal the title comfortably. If they have not he is likely to be extremely and entertainingly expressive of his displeasure, doubtless to the consternation of the FIA’s anti‑swearing police.

McLaren, however, have a car in peak form, they require only to finesse more pace from it to maintain an advantage that has returned four wins in the past six races. The significance cannot be overestimated given it is intrinsic to these ground-effect cars that there is often a disconnect between what upgrades are predicted to do and what they deliver. A backward step from either team could prove pivotal.

Big race performance

As things stand Norris and McLaren have the quickest car on the grid in the MCL38. More importantly, and key to Norris’s hopes, is what a stable platform it provides across a variety of circuits and how swiftly the team are able to dial it into local conditions such that it is up to pace early in the weekend. “One of our strengths is just arriving and performing well,” as Norris said in Singapore. At sprint meetings with only one practice session this is an advantage that may prove immensely important. Red Bull in contrast, with a recalcitrant car they cannot tame, find performance varying from session to session to Verstappen’s immense frustration and detriment if it fails to come good when it matters on a Sunday.

Austin Sunday

Performance of upgrades notwithstanding, McLaren would expect to be strong in Texas. The track has been resurfaced but bumps in the past have proved problematic for cars with balance issues and if Norris hits the ground running in the only practice session he can expect to take his first chunk out Verstappen’s lead.  Maximum points 34

Mexico 27 October

At high altitude and with high downforce but also with low drag required, the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez is a tricky prospect but on a circuit where Verstappen has won five from six races and Red Bull have always gone well, Mexico City is a major target for the Dutchman to reclaim points from Norris.
Maximum points 26

Brazil 3 November

The combination of demands at Interlagos, strong pace for the quick stuff but balance and traction through the slower speed corners should once more play to the wide range of the McLaren’s strengths at a track where Verstappen has struggled in the past. Norris back on top.  Maximum points 34

Las Vegas 23 November

The real outlier of the final races in terms of being a low-downforce, high-speed blast, a la Monza and all set an upset. Ferrari were very strong here last year and a win is on the cards again after Charles Leclerc’s victory in Monza. McLaren’s form in Italy suggests Norris should run the Scuderia closest and put points on his rival. Maximum points 26

Qatar 1 December

High-speed corners in fearsome heat, demanding on drivers and cars and with a sprint, little preparation time. Once more on paper McLaren run well in Losail, where Piastri won the sprint last year and Norris should have enough to take it into the decider. Maximum points 34

Abu Dhabi 8 December

Won by Verstappen for the previous four years and where overtaking remains a considerable challenge, Norris would be up for the win after a mighty charge if he has come this far but if Verstappen has maintained a 10 or 15-point advantage he will be content to do just enough on a tiresomely mundane track for the title. Maximum points 26

Sprint impact

The season will close with an indecent flurry of sprint races, at Austin, Brazil and Qatar. Since the short form was introduced in 2021, Verstappen has enjoyed enormous success with 10 wins of the 15 contested, including all three this season. That was, however, when his car was on top and there is no reason the McLaren should not enjoy the advantage over the dash in these latter stages. This does, in turn, ramp up the pressure on Norris to nail the victories he badly needs but the potential gains are relatively paltry. With eight points for first but seven for second, descending to one for eighth, even a poor finish off the podium would not be a major blow to Verstappen. Once more, Norris has to return well while his rival has breathing space.

Teammate influence

McLaren have been hesitant with team orders thus far, allowing Norris and his teammate, Oscar Piastri, to race, a decision made earlier in the season that may prove costly in hindsight. They are now favouring the British driver and may have to make some tough but necessary calls. Yet the really vital role Piastri and his counterpart at Red Bull, Sergio Pérez, will play is potentially affecting where their two respective rivals finish and here McLaren have an ace in the hole. Piastri has won two of the past six races and, in regular contention at the very front, is in position to out-race Verstappen and deny him vital points. If he does so and a Ferrari or a Mercedes are thrown into the mix Norris could make back a hatful of points in one fell swoop – just two such races could halve the deficit.

Pérez, conversely, in woeful form and struggling with the car all season, appears in no position to make any impact whatsoever, so Verstappen is going to have to do this on his own. There is also the spectre of a DNF but here the Dutchman has the whip hand. A failure to finish and dropping 25 points would all but end it for Norris, while Verstappen’s lead ensures he could absorb such a hit and still be in the fight, albeit one which would then almost certainly head to the wire in Abu Dhabi where, should it end tied on points, the title would be decided by race wins countback.

Giles Richards’ verdict: Norris makes a valiant effort and closes the season with a run of fine performances, enough to force the title to the wire in Abu Dhabi but Verstappen’s early season lead proves a bridge too far. With a 19-point lead going into the finale, Verstappen closes it out for a fourth title. McLaren however win the constructors’ championship, their first since 1998.