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What do France, Netherlands, Austria need? Euro 2024 group permutations and third-place standings explained
Euro 2024 arrives at the final round of the group stage to decide who will go through to the knockouts. As well as the top two teams in each of the six groups, the four best third-placed teams will also progress to make up the last-16, with the remaining eight nations cut from the tournament.
Next up is Group C and Group D, following two dramatic conclusions to the other groups. Hungary claimed third place in Group A and sent Scotland home in the 100th minute, and the drama was matched in Group B as Italy broke Croatia hearts in the 98th minute, as the holders reached the last-16.
England are already through in Group C, while France and Netherlands are also into the last-16 in Group D, but there will be a fight for top spot in both groups as well as a scramble to finish runner-up.
In the past two editions of the European Championship where the 24-team format has been used, four points has always been enough as a third-placed team to progress to the last-16. While three points has occasionally been sufficient, it does not guarantee a place in the next round. Two points was not enough to finish as one of the four best third-placed teams at Euro 2016 or Euro 2020, but there is a way in which it may be possible at Euro 2024.
There are certain to be plenty of twists and turns in store as the final round of fixtures are played out, with both matches in each of the groups kicking off simultaneously across the next four evenings. Here’s how the groups are looking, as well as the all-important permutations and the ranking of the third-placed teams at Euro 2024. Jump to the bottom for Uefa’s very own tiebreaker rules!
Group C
Permutations
England: Gareth Southgate’s side are through to the last-16 with a game to spare, as four points now confirms that England will finish as one of the four best third-placed teams even if they lose to Slovenia. Enlgland will top the group if they beat Slovenia. If England draw, Denmark would have the chance to leapfrog them if they beat Serbia by two goals. Slovenia and Denmark can both finish above England but Serbia cannot due to the head-to-head.
Denmark: A victory over Serbia books their place in the last-16. A draw is enough for second if England beat Slovenia, while if Denmark and Slovenia both draw, second place would come down to goals scored.
Slovenia: Similar to the above, Slovenia will go through if they beat England, but a draw would only be enough to guarantee second if Denmark draw as well and Slovenia possess the advantage on goals scored. If Slovenia draw against England, and Serbia fail to beat Demmark, they will knock out Croatia.
Serbia: Must beat Denmark, with any other result insufficient to go through. If Serbia win and Slovenia don’t beat England, they will go through as runner-up.
Results so far and remaining fixtures
Stuttgart: Slovenia 1-1 Denmark
Gelsenkirchen: Serbia 0-1 England
Munich: Slovenia 1-1 Serbia
Frankfurt: Denmark 1-1 England
June 25, Cologne: England v Slovenia (2000)
June 25, Munich: Denmark v Serbia (2000)
Group D
Permutations
Netherlands: Like England, the Netherlands and France are guaranteed a place in the knockout rounds after reaching four points after their first two games. The Dutch will be guaranteed a place in the top two if they avoid defeat to Austria, and will top the group if they win and better France’s result against Poland. They cannot finish any lower than third, with Poland already knocked out and confirmed as fourth before the final round of fixtures.
France: Can confirm their place in the top two if they avoid defeat to Poland, but Les Bleus will be looking to top the group and can do so if they win and the Netherlands don’t against Austria. If France and the Netherlands both win, it will go down to goal difference and then goals scored as the head-to-head is level.
Austria: Ralf Rangnick’s side can only finish in the top two if they defeat the Netherlands. They can go through to the last-16 even if they lose, unless they lose by four goals or more.
Poland: Defeats to France and Austria put Poland at the mercy of France and the Netherlands in Leipzig, and a draw between the group leaders confirmed Poland as the first country to be knocked out of Euro 2024. They will finish fourth, regardless of their result against France on the final day.
Results so far and remaining fixtures
Hamburg: Poland 1-2 Netherlands
Dusseldorf: Austria 0-1 France
Berlin: Poland 1-3 Austria
Leipzig: Netherlands 0-0 France
June 25, Berlin: Netherlands v Austria (1700)
June 25, Dortmund: France v Poland (1700)
Group E
Permutations
Romania: With all four teams in the group level on three points going into the final round, it’s all to play for in a wide-open Group E. In one way, it’s simple for the four teams involved: win and you’re in the last-16.
But everything else is complicated. If Romania draw against Slovakia and there’s a winner in the game between Belgium and Ukraine, then Romania would finish second on goal difference. If both games finish as a draw, it would go down to goals scored again, so a 2-2 for Romania would be better than a 1-1 for Belgium, for example. If Romania lose and the other game is a draw, then Romania would finish fourth and would be out. If Romania lose but there’s a winner in the other game between Belgium and Ukraine, they would finish third if the loser is Ukraine and fourth if the loser is Belgium.
Belgium: Similar to the above, with some variations. Belgium will go through with a win against Ukraine, and top the group if the other game is a draw or if Romania defeat Slovakia. Belgium would go through if both games finish as a draw, and they would finish second with a draw and there’s a winner in the other game between Romania and Slovakia. If Belgium lose, they would finish third if Slovakia win, and fourth if Romania win.
Slovakia: Can go through with a win against Romania. Slovakia finish third with a draw, while they would also finish third if they and Belgium both lose. Slovakia would finish fourth if they lose and Belgium win.
Ukraine: Can go through with a win against Belgium. A draw would be enough to finish third on four points, but only if there is a winner in the other game between Romania and Slovakia. If all four teams finish on four points, then Ukraine would go out on goal difference. A defeat would only be good enough for third if Romania beat Slovakia.
Results so far and remaining fixtures
Munich: Romania 3-0 Ukraine
Frankfurt: Belgium 0-1 Slovakia
Dusseldorf: Slovakia 1-2 Ukraine
Cologne: Belgium 2-0 Romania
June 26, Frankfurt: Slovakia v Romania (1700)
June 26, Stuttgart: Ukraine v Belgium (1700)
Group F
Permutations
Portugal: Are through as group winners with a game to spare. Portugal will play one of the four best third-placed teams in Frankfurt on Monday 1 July in the last-16.
Turkey: A heavy defeat to Portugal was a blow to Turkey’s goal difference but they can advance with a win over Czech Republic. A draw should be fine, too, and will be good enough for second place if Georgia fail to beat Portugal. Turkey would be knocked out if they lose to Czech Republic and Georgia beat Portugal - but will finish third if they lose and Georgia fail to win. Goal difference would decide if it’s enough to advance.
Czechia: Have to beat Turkey to stand a chance of progress. If Czech Republic win and better Georgia’s result, they will finish second. If they draw or lose and Georgia win, they will be out. If they draw or lose and Georgia match their result, goal difference will decide who finishes third, but their points total is unlikely to be enough.
Georgia: They must beat Portugal, with two points unlikely to be enough. If Georgia and Czech Republic both win, it would go down to goal difference, with the Czechs currently one ahead. If Turkey win or draw, a Georgia win would only be enough for third. If Georgia lose but Czech Republic lose by more they may finish third, but it is unlikely to be enough to go through.
Results so far and remaining fixtures
Dortmund: Turkey 3-1 Georgia
Leipzig: Portugal 2-1 Czechia
Hamburg: Georgia 1-1 Czechia
Dortmund: Turkey 0-3 Portugal
June 26, Hamburg: Czechia v Turkey (2000)
June 26, Gelsenkirchen: Georgia v Portugal (2000)
Group A
Germany: A late equaliser against Switzerland secured top spot in the group after victories over Scotalnd and Hungary. The hosts will face the runner-up of Group C in the last-16.
Switzerland: A point confirmed Switzerland’s place in the top two, and they will face the runner-up of Group B in the last-16.
Hungary: A dramatic winner against Scotland kept their hopes alive. Hungary finish third on three points, but with a goal difference of -3. They need results to go their way.
Scotland: The Tartan Army are going home after a late defeat to Hungary.
Results
Munich: Germany 5-1 Scotland
Cologne: Hungary 1-3 Switzerland
Stuttgart: Germany 2-0 Hungary
Cologne: Scotland 1-1 Switzerland
Frankfurt: Switzerland 1-1 Germany
Stuttgart: Scotland 0-1 Hungary
Permutations
Spain: After beating Italy 1-0, Spain were already through as group winners. Spain finished with maximum points after beating Albania and will play one of the four best third-placed teams in Cologne on Sunday 30 June at 8pm.
Italy: On a dramatic night in Leipzig, the holders denied Croatia with a last-minute equaliser to advance to the last-16. They will face Switzerland.
Croatia: Luka Modric and company looked to be doing it again, until Mattia Zaccagni’s last-gasp goal knocked them out. Croatia needed to win but went from being in the last-16 to going home. Two points is highly unlikely to be enough to go through in third, Croatia now need Slovenia to lose heavily to England, with Denmark beating Serbia in Group C, and for Portugal to beat Georgia and Turkey to beat Czech Republic in Group F.
Albania: Albania had to beat Spain to have any chance of going through and are out following a 1-0 defeat.
Results
Berlin: Spain 3-0 Croatia
Dortmund: Italy 2-1 Albania
Hamburg: Croatia 2-2 Albania
Gelsenkirchen: Spain 1-0 Italy
Leipzig: Croatia 1-1 Italy
Dusseldorf: Albania 0-1 Spain
Ranking of third-placed teams
Tiebreaker rules
If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the final tournament group stage, the following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine their rankings:
higher number of points obtained in the matches played among the teams in question;
superior goal difference resulting from the matches played among the teams in question;
higher number of goals scored in the matches played among the teams in question;
if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to h) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal:
superior goal difference in all group matches;
higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings, or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots.
To determine the four best third-placed teams, the following criteria are applied, in the order given:
higher number of points;
superior goal difference;
higher number of goals scored;
higher number of wins;
lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
position in the overall European Qualifiers rankings, or if Germany, the host association team, is involved in the comparison, drawing of lots.
