Premier League risks losing Champions League place after Man Utd and Newcastle form

The Premier League would be at risk of missing out on an extra Champions League place next season should Manchester United and Newcastle United fail to make it out of the group stages of this year’s competition.

The group stages of the Champions League are changing next season with the introduction of a ‘Swiss-style’ format, while four additional teams will be added to take the number of clubs to 36.

That means there will be four extra places up for grabs, with Uefa awarding two of them to the countries who collectively performed best in Europe in the previous season.

This is calculated by Uefa’s association club coefficient table and an average score is produced by dividing the total number of points won throughout the year by the number of clubs involved.

Uefa awards points for group-stage wins and round-of-16 participation and if applied last season, England would have finished in the top two along with the Netherlands. The Premier League’s coefficient was boosted by Manchester City winning the Champions League and West Ham winning the Europa Conference League.

There are eight Premier League clubs competing in Europe this season and Manchester United and Newcastle United’s performance in the Champions League group stages could potentially hit England’s association club coefficient average.

England are currently fourth in this season’s table, behind Germany, Spain and Italy. Premier League clubs would usually accrue more points as a result of their performance in the knockout rounds of the Champions League, but Erik ten Hag and Eddie Howe’s sides are currently at risk of early exits.

Manchester United must beat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford on Tuesday to have any hope of qualifying, and even then they need other results to go their way. If United beat Bayern, they will only go through to the last-16 if the match between FC Copenhagen and Galatasaray finishes as a draw. If either Copenhagen or Galatasaray win, United will be knocked out of the Champions League, regardless of their result against Bayern.

Meanwhile, Newcastle must beat AC Milan at home and hope Paris Saint-Germain either draw or lose away to Borussia Dortmund, who are already through to the last-16. Any other result for Newcastle will not be enough to reach the knockouts.

PSG will be through to the last-16 with a win, or with a draw if AC Milan win at St James’ Park. PSG will only go through with a defeat if AC Milan and Newcastle draw. Milan will qualify if they beat Newcastle and Dortmund beat PSG.

There would be an even greater hit to the coefficient if they finish fourth in the group and fail to even reach the Europe League play-off round. Newcastle will drop into the Europa League if they draw against Milan and finish level on points with the Italians, while United will go through to the Europa League if they finish third, which would be confirmed if they beat Bayern, regardless of the result between Copenhagen and Galatasaray.

The Premier League’s coefficient for this season should be helped by a number of teams who look set to extend their European campaigns beyond Christmas, however. Manchester City and Arsenal are already through to the Champions League last-16 as group winners.