Arsenal ready to rewrite history and end Bayern Munich’s decade-long dynasty

Mikel Arteta is so meticulous in preparations that when it comes to huge games like this, he knows he doesn’t have to say much. All of the work has been done on the training ground, the Arsenal players having been drilled to target Bayern Munich’s soft centre. Arteta certainly knows what not to say. He won’t be mentioning the 10-2 aggregate defeat from the last time the two teams met, rightly describing it as “history” when inevitably asked on the eve of the game.

It just isn’t relevant to his current Arsenal players, since none were involved. It’s barely relevant to the current Bayern squad, since only five were involved.

That quintet, led by Thomas Muller and Joshua Kimmich, now have far bigger concerns and there is an acute awareness that this iteration of Arsenal could do similar to them. Thomas Tuchel has been fixating on the gaps in his squad, which he feels are a consequence of longer-term squad-building issues.

That points to the one way the 10-2 is relevant in framing this game. It displays how empires rise and fall in football, and could neatly bookend what happened in 2017.

That humiliation was the final sign that the Arsene Wenger era was over, and this quarter-final might just fully end this Bayern Munich dynasty.

The chances of a 12th Bundesliga in a row are gone, finished by a Bayer Leverkusen managed by Xabi Alonso, who was on the pitch for both legs of that 10-2.

Wenger stayed on for another year, but the argument to finally move him on was basically definitive from that hammering. It had long been evident in the years before, with a series of defeats to Bayern making it clear.

There was one moment before a tie involving Pep Guardiola where the German club’s press officer even referenced “the annual meeting”. It was an annual victory for Bayern, who three times eliminated Arsenal from the last-16 stage. That was a sign of how Wenger’s team had hit a ceiling before they started to fall from it.

The 2017 games also ended that long Arsenal run in the Champions League, where they’d qualified every season since 1998.

The story of how they have returned as a serious force is in part influenced by Bayern. Around 2020, as Arsenal’s new hierarchy figured out how they could forge a path in the modern game, an obvious model was Borussia Dortmund. Years of underperformance had, after all, left the London club quite far behind English rivals in terms of finance, so they had to explore a different approach that defied modern football economics. It made sense to strip everything down and prioritise youth and growth, at least until they could spend again.

That is where they are now. Arsenal’s status as one of the Premier League’s three most popular clubs meant they would never have to stay at that level, and they are now on the brink of surpassing Bayern.

This was the thing about that last-16 tie for the German side. You couldn’t even say it was a peak or anything like that. It was just a show of that lasting imperial power. Guardiola had just left the club for Manchester City the season before, but they still had all of his squad. There was a substance and muscle memory there that lasted for some time.

It was that point of a dynasty when a team has such a level of superiority that everything is almost seamless. They don’t need to do too much or take major decisions because they can constantly tick away at the team. City are arguably at that point now. They have built a squad of such quality that they only need to make a few individual changes every year.

Bayern could even afford to sack Carlo Ancelotti mere months after that 10-2 and still win the Bundesliga. They were that much financially stronger than all their rivals.

The merciful element for football is that not even that can last indefinitely. Even long-term economic forces can suddenly be subject to the whims of human psychology and emotional momentum.

So it was that, just like Juventus and the end of their nine successive Serie A titles, Bayern gradually went stale. Repeat victory, after all, doesn’t necessarily bring innovation. Bayern kept signing the same type of German player, but at a point when there is now considerable debate about the country’s talent production. This team just isn’t seen as having the substance of the Champions League winners of 2013 and 2020.

They have a lot of the talent, sure, but it is as if that talent has just been superficially imposed upon the squad. There’s been no sense of classic team-building.

It is why Harry Kane’s signing now looks a little panicked rather than a final piece in that kind of logical way. It was as if the thinking was they once had a brilliant No 9 who worked fantastically well in Robert Lewandowski, so best to sign the closest thing.

Kane has done his part in scoring so many goals. The issue is that it hasn’t been a part in a clearly defined team. For all the mirth that has brought about Kane’s ongoing struggle to win medals, it is hard not to have some sympathy. He joined a club like Bayern at the wrong time.

That is also what is most interesting about the fall of this empire in the context of this match. It is amazing how, when it goes, it really goes. The same happened with Juventus.

It’s not just that Bayern are more beatable. It’s that they’re calamitous. An aura has vanished. Teams like Heidenheim, as we saw in that 3-2 comeback at the weekend, have just sensed vulnerability and gone for them.

It is why there is a real concern about what Arsenal can do. Martin Odegaard could wreak havoc in that open space in front of the Bayern defence, space that has never really been covered this season.

The one great concern for Arsenal, however, is Bayern’s sense of nothing to lose.

This is it. This is their season.

That can do strange things to teams, and games. Bayern have enough individual quality to suddenly produce on the night.

Jamal Musiala has been so frustrated with this season that other European clubs – including City – have wondered whether he might be buyable this summer. That emotion can still translate into imposing displays on nights like that. Kane will surely have a sense of mission. That can make a difference amid such rarefied games.

This used to be a defining characteristic of the Champions League, after all. It used often to be the case that teams underperforming in the league would overperform come the magic of a European night.

Bayern themselves suffered the other side of this more than anyone. In 2012, just at the start of this era of victory, they infamously played a home final at the Allianz Arena, only to lose to a Chelsea team that finished sixth in the Premier League.

That might bookend things in a different way. Bayern could take inspiration from that evening, if they want to think of that humiliation at all. That kind of defiant Champions League season doesn’t really happen any more, though. The same might soon be said of Bayern beating Arsenal.

Arteta has a chance to correct history, but in part because he’s only thinking about the future. For Bayern, their season might come down to this moment alone. Nothing else needs to be said.