The new figures will make Britain the joint third fastest-growing economy in the G7 this year, in line with France and behind the US which expected to grow by 2.8% and Canada, which is forecast to grow by 1.3%.

Italy is lagging behind with 0.7% growth, Japan with 0.3% and zero growth in Germany in 2024.

The financial agency held its forecasts steady for the overall global economy, saying that the battle against inflation has “largely been won”.

However, it said uncertainty around the economic outlook was still “high”, partly due to a raft of recent or forthcoming elections.

The IMF warned in its latest World Economic Outlook report that newly elected governments “could introduce significant shifts in trade and fiscal policy”, which could alter future growth in some regions.

The IMF stuck with its forecast for 3.2% global growth this year, although predicted growth in 2025 has been revised down from 3.3% to 3.2%.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, "After peaking at 9.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5% by the end of next year, slightly below the average during the two decades before the pandemic.

"In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets, paving the way for monetary easing across major central banks."

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for UK economic growth as upcoming elections continue to drive global uncertainty.

According to new projections announced on Tuesday, British gross domestic product (GDP) is set to grow by 1.1% in 2024, faster than previously thought thanks to falling inflation and lower interest rates helping to drive spending. This is up from 0.7% in July.

It is then expected to grow by 1.5% in 2025, with the IMF maintaining its prediction from earlier in the year.

National Pension Tracing Day calls on 27 October this year where we are urged to spend the extra hour gained from the clocks going back looking for our lost pensions.

With an estimated 2.8 million pension pots worth around £26.6bn lost in the system it could be an hour well spent. Even that tiny pension you lost track of early in your career could have grown to become a sizeable sum that could make a real difference to your retirement.

Losing a pension is easily done. We move around jobs and homes several times during our lives and if we don’t keep our contact details updated then we can easily lose track. However, help is at hand with a call to the government’s Pension Tracing Service.

It’s an important but underused service. A recent Freedom of Information (FOI) request showed that it received well over 276,000 calls since January 2019 and demand is growing. However, with millions of pensions lost, it’s clear the service is still barely scratching the surface of the issue. The advent of the much-delayed Pensions Dashboard will help but it is a few years away yet.

Read the full article here

Professional job roles decreased by 5% globally in September in what is typically recruitment’s ‘busiest month’

The US, UK, Singapore, Germany, and Australia reported the biggest declines, with low business confidence the overriding factor.

Europe experienced the traditional September ‘surge’ but this was more muted than previous years, the figures showed.

Meanwhile, Mexico and the Philippines benefitted from offshoring and creation of shared service centres

Financial services lead the way in job volume, and professional services reported a 17% increase in September. Deal flow is expected to return as interest rates lower.

Tech roles continued to decline month-on-month, but China, Mexico and India bucked global trends.

Toby Fowlston, CEO of global talent solutions business Robert Walters, said:

The latest market insight from London lettings and estate agent, Benham and Reeves, has found that whilst many buyers have been deterred from purchasing due to higher interest rates, the recent base rate reduction seen in August has brought renewed enthusiasm, with 61% of buyers planning to take the plunge in 2025.

The survey of 1,203 current UK homebuyers found:

• First-time buyers currently account for 68% of those looking to climb the property ladder.

• 49% have been house hunting for six months or longer, with 43% of those having been searching for over a year.

• House price affordability ranks as the key reason that many buyers are yet to make their move, with a lack of stock within their desired area and the ability to accumulate a suitable deposit also proving to be some of the biggest barriers.

• However, when questioned specifically about the current landscape with respect to interest rates, 59% of those surveyed said that the peak in interest rates since August of last year to 5.25% had been a key deterrent.

• 61% of those surveyed said they plan to purchase within the next year, suggesting the UK property market could be about to benefit from a substantial boost in buyer activity.

• 67% stated that they are hoping to see some for on home buying initiative introduced in the Autumn Statement this month, such as stamp duty holiday or the relaunch of a Help to Buy scheme.

• Just a quarter of those surveyed said they had considered a low deposit mortgage product, such as a mortgage deposit scheme, or the recently launched Nationwide mortgage offering loans of up to six times income with a 5% deposit.

Gold (GC=F) prices rose 0.4% during the session on Tuesday, hovering just below the all-time high reached the previous day.

Throughout this year, demand for the precious metal has surged, fuelled by expectations of central bank rate cuts that make non-yielding gold more attractive to investors.

Large central bank purchases and haven demand, driven by geopolitical instability, particularly in the Middle East, have also supported price gains.

Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said:

Halfords has warned that UK consumers are avoiding big ticket purchases, after reporting no sales growth in the last six months.

Like-for like sales dipped 0.1% in the half-year to 27 September, following “the UK’s wettest spring since 1986”.

It was also due to there being significantly stronger demand during 2023, particularly for its garages which saw a big jump in vehicle-servicing sales.

It also said its short-term outlook remains “uncertain”, despite pockets of improving consumer sentiment.

Graham Stapleton, chief executive officer of Halfords, said:

Luxury handbag maker Mulberry has decided to rebuff the higher £111m proposed takeover from Frasers in favour of focusing on boosting its business performance.

It said this also takes into account the view of its largest shareholder, Challice – a group controlled by Singaporean entrepreneur Christina Ong and husband Ong Beng Seng – which has already rejected the approach, saying it does not plan to sell to Frasers.

Mulberry said: “After careful consideration with its advisers… the board is unanimously of the view that the possible offer is untenable and that the company should focus its attention on driving the commercial performance of the business.”

Sports Direct owner Frasers, which owns a 37% stake in Mulberry, tabled the fresh approach on 11 October.

It offered to pay 150p per share for the rest of the business it did not already own in order to take control.

It came after a previous 130p per share move, which valued Mulberry at £83million, was rebuffed earlier this month.

Crude oil prices edged higher on Tuesday amid renewed diplomatic efforts by the US to broker a ceasefire in the Middle East and concerns over slowing demand growth in China, the world’s largest oil importer.

Brent crude futures advanced 0.9% to $74.94 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (CL=F) crude gained more than 1% to $71.29 per barrel during early European trading.

The rise comes as US secretary of state Antony Blinken arrived in Israel, launching a Middle East tour aimed at reviving talks to end the Gaza conflict and preventing further escalation in Lebanon.

Yoshida noted that the market could see upward momentum if China’s economic recovery shows clearer signs of progress, potentially bolstered by Beijing's stimulus measures and an improvement in the US economy following potential interest rate cuts.

However, persistent uncertainties around the global economic outlook are likely to cap gains, he cautioned.

Water bills are set to go up by more than expected over the next five years, the BBC has reported.

It comes as regulator Ofwat is in the process of deciding how much customer bills will be allowed to rise in order to fund higher costs and more investment.

In July, Ofwat provisionally agreed to allow bills to rise by an average of £19 per year between 2025 and 2030, totalling a £94 increase, or a 21% rise, over that period.

It is unclear by how much more bills will rise instead, but the watchdog will make its final decision at the end of the year.

Investors are waiting to hear from Andrew Bailey and other Bank of England policymakers about the potential path for interest rates.

The Bank of England governor will give a speech in New York later, while fellow policymaker Megan Greene will be on a panel at the Atlantic Council.

Their speeches come after UK inflation dropped further than expected to 1.7% in September, paving the way for more interest rate cuts from Threadneedle Street

Figures published by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) this morning, show inheritance tax receipts hit £4.3bn in the six months from April to September 2024.

This is £400m higher than the same period in the previous tax year and continues the upward trajectory over the last two decades.

Last full tax year inheritance tax raised £7.499bn and currently just one in 20 estates are liable. But that may be about to change dramatically if the budget rumours are to be believed.

No-one knows what changes will be announced, but most agree there will be some attempt to milk more revenue from estates.

Nicholas Hyett, Investment Manager at Wealth Club said:

HSBC has announced an overhaul of its bank, separating its UK division from its business in Asia amid growing geopolitical tensions between China and the West.

The lender said on Tuesday that it will be “simplifying” its geographical governance structure, splitting its business into eastern and western markets.

Eastern markets will contain the Asia-Pacific region and the Middle East while western markets will contain its UK and continental European and Americas businesses.

It comes as Georges Elhedery, HSBC's chief executive, is under pressure to navigate these tensions, as well as cutting costs and increasing profits.

The bank also announced the appointment of Pam Kaur, its first female finance chief in the company's 159-year history. She has worked at the bank for more than a decade and is currently its chief risk and compliance officer.

Darren Jones, chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “We have inherited a £22bn black hole in the country’s public finances, including no plan to fund pay deals for millions of public sector workers.

“Strikes cost at least £3bn last year, so it was the right thing to do to end those damaging disputes.”

Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, said: "This demonstrates the constraints on the chancellor’s ability to increase day-to-day spending in the budget next week without raising taxes.

“Indeed, we expect her to increase current (i.e. excluding investment) spending by a net £25bn a year and to fund that by raising taxes by £25bn.

“However, if the chancellor changes the measure of debt her fiscal rule targets, she may be able to borrow to increase public investment by up to £53bn. For what it’s worth, we think she will raise borrowing and public investment by £18bn in 2029/30.”

Public sector debt was estimated to be at 98.5% of GDP, four percentage points higher than the same period last year.

The interest the Treasury has to pay on government debt rose from £4.6bn a year ago to £5.6bn last month, according to the ONS.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said:

Reeves will deliver her autumn statement speech on 30 October.

UK government borrowing reached £16.6bn in September, marking the third-highest level for the month since records began, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The figure was £2.1bn higher than the same month last year, leaving chancellor Rachel Reeves in a difficult fiscal position ahead of the autumn budget. Meanwhile, the public borrowing figure for August was revised down from £13.7bn to £13bn.

While the borrowing figure came in below the £17.5bn forecast by many economists, concerns remain over the wider fiscal picture. Since the start of the financial year, total borrowing stands at £79.6bn —£1.2bn more than the same period in 2023 and £6.7bn higher than projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK’s independent fiscal watchdog.

The ONS also noted a decline in central government benefit payments for the first time since early 2022. This drop was attributed in part to Labour's recent policy decision to means-test the winter fuel allowance.

ONS deputy director for public sector finances Jessica Barnaby said:

Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight with the Nikkei (^N225) falling 1.4% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) was treading water in Hong Kong.

The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.5% up by the end of the session following a cut to interest rates that took effect on Monday.

Indices outside of China, including in Australia and Korea, declined in cautious trading ahead of earnings reports both in the region and overseas, after Wall Street’s long, record-breaking rally ran out of steam.

Across the pond on Wall Street, the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) declined 0.2% to 5,853.98. The Dow Jones (^DJI) finished 0.8% lower at 42,931.60, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index (^IXIC) advanced 0.3% to reach 18,540.01.

In the bond market, the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes rose to 4.206% from 4.086% late on Sunday.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets, and all that's happening across the global economy.

Here's a quick look at what's on the agenda for today:

• 7am: Trading updates: InterContinental Hotels, Halfords, Virgin Wines, Petra Diamonds, Mothercare, ShoeZone

• 7am: UK public finances for September

• 7am: European Union car sales for September

• 2pm: IMF to publish World Economic Outlook

• 2.25pm: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey gives a keynote address at the Bloomberg Global Regulatory Forum

• 3pm: US Existing Home Sales

• 3.15pm: IMF to publish Global Financial Stability Report