FTSE mixed and US stocks down as traders look to jobs report for rate clues

How major markets are performing on Tuesday

In this article:

The FTSE 100 and European markets presented a mixed on Tuesday following PMI data and a European inflation reading. Meanwhile, US stocks were lower ahead of fresh jobs data on Friday and speeches by Federal Reserve officials which will give insights into the health of the economy.

  • The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was 0.5% higher by the end of the session, while Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) fell 0.6% and the CAC 40 (^FCHI) in Paris lost 0.8%.

  • The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was 0.6% lower following a flash inflation update which showed the estimated Eurozone inflation reading for September came in at 1.8%. Earlier the index had been trading lower.

  • Across the pond the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 1.3%, the Dow (^DJI) lost 0.7% and the Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 2.2% lower as markets wobble ahead of the payroll report.

  • On Monday, Fed chair Jerome Powell put markets on edge with comments that policymakers aren't in a hurry to lower rates even as they strive to keep the economy on a solid footing. This prompted traders to ramp down bets on another 0.5% cut.

  • Commodity prices are volatile on Tuesday due to conflict escalating between Israel and Lebanon. Earlier in the day, Israel said it had started "limited, localised, and targeted ground raids" based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon.

  • Hezbollah said it had started artillery fire close to the Israel-Lebanon border and later added that no direct clashes have yet happened between their fighters and the IDF.

  • Oil prices are changeable, with brent crude futures (BZ=F) and crude (CL=F) currently 2.9% and 3.3% higher having fallen earlier in the session.

LIVE COVERAGE IS OVER18 updates
  • Thanks for reading!

    That's all from me — head over to our US site for more market moving news.

  • German bund yield falls to year-to-date low

    Axel Rudolph, senior technical analyst at online trading platform IG, said:

    "Eurozone inflation falling to 1.8%, the lowest since April 2021, led to a sell-off in the German Bund yield which slid to 2.01%. Given heightened tensions in the Middle East, US factory activity remaining subdued and job openings beating expectations only played second fiddle on Tuesday."

  • Gold prices volatile

    Naeem Alsam, chief investment officer of Zaye Capital Markets, said:

    Gold prices are volatile today as traders are much paying attention to economic data and trying to make sense of what the Fed will make out of this. Yesterday, the Fed chairman surprised market players with his words when he said that the market players should not expect an interest rate cut of 50 basis points in future meetings. Gold traders have enjoyed the rally in gold prices on the back of the weakness in the dollar index, and if we begin to see an improvement in the dollar index’s price, we could see a totally different reaction among traders, which could translate into a new trend that bulls may not like.

  • Microsoft stock lower as it unveils AI updates

    Here's our US team with the latest:

    Microsoft (MSFT) is bringing major updates to its Copilot artificial intelligence platform for Windows, expanding the software's capabilities with a number of new features, and introducing the ability to speak directly to the AI helper.

    The announcements, which the company made at a press event at its Microsoft Experience Center in New York on Tuesday, also include a context-aware Click to Do option that provides you with tools and actions to complete tasks related to what you see on your screen, a refreshed version of Windows Search, the ability to upscale your old photos to up to 8K resolution, and an AI-powered edit tool for erasing or adding objects to your images.

    The company also said it's working on a feature called Copilot Vision, which is able to view your Edge browser screen and understand questions you ask about what you're looking at.

    All of these options come as Microsoft continues its AI push on both the consumer and enterprise sides of its business. The company launched its first wave of Copilot+ PCs in May, including its own Surface line of laptops and devices from partner companies including Dell, HP, and Lenovo.

  • US stocks little changed in early trade

  • Stock to watch ahead of the open: Apple

    Vicky McKeever writes:

    The world's most valuable company, Apple, closed near its all-time high on Monday. The stock ended the previous session 2.3% higher at $233 (£175) per share, just below the high of $234.82 it hit in July.

    This took the tech giant's market capitalisation up to $3.5tn.

    US markets more broadly notched fresh records on the final day of the quarter, with the S&P 500 closing 0.4% in the green.

    Looking at Apple specifically, Barron's reported that a Morgan Stanley note on Monday referred to stabilising lead times for some iPhone 16 models.

    There had been some concern, following the launch of the new iPhone in September, that early demand for the latest model was lagging 2023 levels.

    Other megacap tech companies also ended Monday's session in positive territory, with Google-owner Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) up more than 1% and social media giant Meta Platforms (META) up nearly 1%.

  • Greggs shares dip amid sales slowdown

    Shares in sausage roll-maker Greggs dipped 5% on Tuesday morning, after it reported a slowdown in underlying sales growth in the third quarter.

    The food-on-the-go retailer said like-for-like sales in this latest quarter were up 5%, versus 6.5% year-to-date, and slower than the 7.4% growth it reported in the first half.

    However, Greggs said that it was "acknowledging ongoing economic uncertainty, [and] the board expects the full year outcome to be in line with its previous expectations".

    The British baker also said it expected the overall level of cost inflation for the year to be towards the lower end of the 4% to 5% range that it previously mentioned.

    In terms of new products, Greggs said it had launched a pumpkin spiced doughnut as part of its autumn menu. The chain said it was also on track to open between 140 and 160 net new shops in 2024.

    Mamta Valechha, retail equity analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said: "We continue to like Greggs; the group ranks highly on price perception and quality among coffee shops and quick service restaurants. There is significant growth potential in London and south-east England, and Greggs remains second only to McDonald’s in monthly active app users."

    Despite Tuesday's fall in share price, Greggs is still up 14% year-to-date.

  • Read our full take on Eurozone inflation here

    EZB-Präsidentin Christine Lagarde bei der Pressekonferenz der Europäischen Zentralbank in der EZB in Frankfurt. Die Europäische Zentralbank senkt die Zinsen im Euroraum weiter um 0,25 Prozentpunkte auf 3,5 Prozent. Frankfurt, 12.09.2024 Hessen Deutschland *** ECB President Christine Lagarde at the press conference of the European Central Bank at the ECB in Frankfurt The European Central Bank cuts interest rates in the eurozone by a further 0.25 percentage points to 3.5 percent Frankfurt, 12 09 2024 Hesse Germany Copyright: xChristophxHardtx

    READ MORE: Eurozone inflation estimate below ECB's 2% target in September

  • Eurozone rate cut locked in?

    Here's what Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at Ebury, thinks:

    “The September Euro Area inflation report has effectively sealed the deal for a second consecutive interest rate cut from the European Central Bank at its next meeting later this month. Both the main and core rates of inflation eased relative to August, particularly the former, which collapsed to its lowest level since April 2021 and below the ECB’s target for the first time in more than three years.

    “While President Lagarde indicated to markets at the last meeting that an October cut was not in the bank’s baseline scenario, we think that macroeconomic data since then is highly likely to force the bank’s hand. Not only is inflation continuing to come down nicely, but the Euro Area economy appears to have practically stagnated in the third quarter of the year, at least according to last week’s dismal set of business activity PMI figures.

    “We see another 25 basis point cut as set in stone this month, with Lagarde likely to both express greater confidence on inflation and warn over the state of the bloc’s economy. This would likely tee up a third straight rate reduction at the bank’s December meeting, which is now fully priced in by swap markets following today’s data.”

  • Energy price drop brings Eurozone inflation to 1.8% in September

    Inflation in the Eurozone is expected to have fallen to 1.8% in September, its lowest level since April 2021, according to new estimates. This is a four percentage point decrease from 2.2% in August.

    The reading is below the bloc's target of 2%.

    Energy prices fell 6% and inflation slowed to 4% for services, while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly.

    Despite evidence that overall inflation headed below the ECB's target rate of 2% in September, the core rate of inflation — which strips out more volatile measures — still came in above target at 2.7%.

  • EU inflation estimates below 2% in September

    Here are the latest flash inflation figures from the Eurozone:

  • UK business confidence hits nine-month low despite manufacturing bounce

    The latest S&P Global PMI manufacturing release says:

    The UK manufacturing sector saw a further solid increase in production volumes at the end of the third quarter. Output and new orders both continued to rise, as the domestic market remained the main propeller of growth.

    There were signs of a wait-and-see approach entering decision-making, however, with the forthcoming Autumn Statement in particular leading to slower gains in both production and new business and a dip in future expectations to a nine-month low.

  • EU manufacturing output at nine-month low

    The latest EU manufacturing PMIs are out and the data shows activity in September hit a nine-month low in the sector.

    The bloc recorded a score of 45 — anything below 50 indicates contraction and anything above indicates growth. August's reading was 45.8.

    Eurozone goods producers also downwardly adjusted their inventories as business growth expectations slumped to a ten-month low.

    Notably, the survey’s headline index fell to its lowest level in the year-to-date and was below the average seen across the current 27-month downturn.

  • Clothes and furniture lead price cuts for UK retailers, as price deflation hits for second month

    Shop price inflation is now at its lowest level in over three years, according to the British Retail Consortium, with non-food inflation hitting -2.1% in September, further down from -1.5% in the preceding month. This is below the three-month average rate of -1.5%. Furniture and clothing were the categories with the biggest reductions.

    Meanwhile, food inflation picked up to 2.3% in September, up from 2% in August. This is above the three-month average rate of 2.2%. The annual rate continues to ease in this category and inflation remained at its lowest rate since November 2021.

    “Easing price inflation will certainly be welcomed by consumers, but ongoing geopolitical tensions, climate change, and government-imposed regulatory costs could all reverse this trend," said Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC.

  • Overnight in Asia

    It was another volatile day in Japan as central bank twitchers continue to watch for moves by the Bank of Japan. The Nikkei (^N225) finished 1.9% higher.

    Meanwhile stock markets in China were closed for the Chinese holiday.

    Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets writes:

    "In Asia, while market volume remains somewhat subdued due to the Chinese holiday, traders continue to pay close attention to the measures taken by the PBOC and the fresh economic data from other important economies in Asia, such as Japan.

    "Today, the Tankan Manufacturing index and non-manufacturing numbers have both produced readings that have been better than expectations, and this alone has lifted spirits among traders. Traders want to see improvement in the economic numbers, especially when it comes to Japan and China, and when they do actually witness these numbers, their spirits lift and they have more appetite for riskier assets."

  • Here's how US indexes are faring in premarket

    The market's not been open long, but major US indexes seem to be rading almost flat in premarket. More on that later.

  • Monday trade in the US

    Our US team writes:

    US stocks bid farewell to the month and the quarter with fresh records as investors reacted to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowing to do what it takes to keep the economy humming, while signaling he won't rush future rate cuts.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 0.4% to close at a new record, while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained close to 0.4%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) finished just above the flatline, securing its latest all-time-high.

    Typically the cruelest month for stocks, Wall Street indexes recorded monthly wins to close out the last trading day of September. Notably, the S&P 500 notched its best year-to-date performance at September's end since 1997. The S&P also enjoyed its best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2021.

    Over the last three months, the Dow led the major indexes' gains, up 8.2%. The S&P gained 5.4%, and the Nasdaq added nearly 3%.

  • Good morning!

    Hello from London. Lucy Harley-McKeown here ready to bring you the markets news of the day.

    Baker Greggs is reporting results this morning and traders will be looking to the EU flash inflation update for clues on the European Central Bank's rate path.

    There will also be PMI data coming out of the UK, US, Europe and Asia.

    Let's get to it.