Well that's all we have time for today — thanks for following along. Be sure to join us again next week Tuesday when we'll be back for more.

Here's a quick preview of the earnings preview of key companies reporting next week and what to look out for...

• In the tech sector, AI darling Nvidia is expected to offer a glimpse into the ongoing impact of the artificial intelligence (AI) hype on the semiconductor industry, potentially revealing whether enthusiasm for AI is translating into tangible growth.

• Meanwhile in London, financial services firm Prudential will show investors if it has managed to turn around its performance. Shares in the company have slumped amid less than stellar performance of the Hong Kong and China economies.

• CrowdStrike will also report its results in the cybersecurity arena, with investors eager to see how the company behind the recent global outage is performing.

• In the sneaker fashion world, Foot Locker is seeing analysts upgrading its stock ahead of earnings but Wall Street still expects a quarterly loss.

Read more here: Stocks to watch next week: Nvidia, Prudential, CrowdStrike and Foot Locker

Have a great bank holiday weekend all!

CME FedWatch suggests traders have shifted their bets slightly towards a 0.5 percentage point cut on 18 September, but the consensus is still for a 0.25 percentage point cut.

The probability of the latter is at 67.5%, down from 71.5% earlier, according to probabilities implied by derivative transactions.

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy, said:

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Fed Reserve chair Jerome Powell said in his keynote speech at the Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

“The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

“My confidence has grown,” he said, “that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%.”

According to the Fed’s preferred measure, inflation fell to 2.5% last month, far below its peak of 7.1% two years ago and only slightly above the central bank’s 2% target level.

He added:

"The labour market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state. We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labour market conditions."

Markets are now pricing in a 74% chance of the Fed cutting rates by a quarter percentage points at its September meeting.

This is according to the CME FedWatch tool, which showed traders backing away from bets on a big half point cut.

Overall, they see combined one percentage point rate cut over the next three meetings.

Some analysts think markets are being far too aggressive and could be disappointed if Jerome Powell is more cautious.

Orla Garvey, senior fixed income portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, said:

Research from Deutsche Bank...

Two years ago, the arrival of the energy crisis at a time when labour markets were still very tight left a sharp disconnect between how negatively UK consumers felt about the wider economy and how (comparatively) stable they felt about their own employment prospects. As our chart of the week shows, this gap has now entirely closed, with UK households now once again linking their future employment prospects with the health of the general economy (and vice versa).

Today's confirmation that energy bills are set to rise (by 10%) in the autumn may be a dampener to confidence, though to some extent this could be offset by the current fall in fuel prices. On the employment side, it's interesting that consumers have generally felt even better over recent months despite a fall in vacancies and a tick-up in the unemployment rate. Going forward, it will be worth monitoring whether we are past this peak of (relative) optimism.

There are no obviously notable gainers on the FTSE 100 day, with no major trading updates scheduled.

However, Melrose (MRO.L) is the biggest faller in London, down more than 6% after investment bank UBS steeply cut its target price for the stock.

UBS said that Melrose’s model of sharing in revenues from parts it makes is not as valuable as it has said.

Oil prices rose on Friday, up on rate cut speculation, escaping a weekly loss after hitting the lowest close since January this week.

It comes amid a challenging demand outlook, sinking product prices, and US efforts to secure a ceasefire in Gaza.

Brent crude traded above $77 a barrel, less than 1% higher this week, while West Texas Intermediate was near $73. Data this week showed US manufacturing contracting at the fastest pace this year, as well as signs of labour market softness.

Meanwhile, in Europe, futures for diesel, a workhorse industrial fuel, have retreated to the lowest level in 14 months.

Oil has almost shed its year-to-date gains as the impact of OPEC+ supply curbs has been overshadowed by a poor economic outlook in major economies, with China showing signs of weakness along with the US.

The cartel led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has previously said it aims to ease some output curbs in the fourth quarter, crude’s slide makes that plan more challenging.

“In the short term, Brent prices have declined ahead of fundamentals,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats said in a note.

“However, with demand set to slow after summer, and both OPEC and non-OPEC supply to increase from the fourth quarter, we foresee a softening balance, turning to surplus in 2025.”

India’s silver imports are forecast to nearly double this year off the back of surging demand from the country’s solar panel and electronics manufacturers.

Investors are betting that the precious metal will give better returns than gold due to industrial demand from the world’s biggest silver consumer.

India imported 3,625 metric tons of silver last year, but has already imported 4,554 tons in the first half of 2024, according to trade ministry data.

Chirag Thakkar, chief executive of silver importer Amrapali Group Gujarat, told Reuters that total purchases this year could hit 7,000 tons.

UK households are always looking for ways to make their money go further amid the cost of living crisis and savings accounts can help.

After years of low rates, high-yield savings accounts are having a moment even as the Bank of England cut interest rates from a 16-year high of 5.25% to 5%. While homeowners face higher mortgages, there is a silver lining in higher borrowing costs and consumers can now find UK savings accounts offering higher than inflation rates.

The UK rate of inflation came in at 2.2% in July, the first increase of the year, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It was at 2% in June and May.

Savers should shop around to find the best deals and check what rate they are on — as they could still be sitting on a product that does not beat inflation. Providers might also start to lower rates as interest rates fall, so consumers need to check if their money is well placed for higher returns.

Read the full article here

The total venture capital (VC) funding raised by the US-based start-ups improved by 2.4% year-on-year during January to July 2024 despite a 41% decline in VC deal volume.

The country continues to lead the global VC landscape with a significant gap over its peers, leading both in deal count and funding value, driven by a surge in more than $100m deals, GlobalData revealed.

The US saw the announcement of a total of 4,675 VC deals of worth $70.6bn during January-July 2023 compared to 2,759 VC deals of worth $72.3bn during January-July 2024.

Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData, said:

Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG.L) slipped after opening on Friday, down more than 3%, after it flagged a mistake with its solvency figure for 2023. The ratio was been revised lower to 188%, still above the target range of 140%-180%.

The error means Direct Line is more solvent than it had initially said publicly.

The company said: “A miscalculation has been identified within the Group's audited Solvency II own funds for the year ended 2023. “Correcting for the miscalculation, the solvency capital ratio (post-dividend) at year end 2023 was 188%, which was above the Group's risk appetite range of 140% to 180%.”

Hargreaves Lansdown analyst Matt Britzman said:

Hiscox (HSX.L) was in focus today as it announced the appointment of senior independent director Colin Keogh as interim chair. It comes following the death of Jonathan Bloomer earlier in the week in the sinking of the Bayesian on Mike Lynch’s luxury yacht.

Bloomer was confirmed dead on Thursday after five bodies were found by divers after the Bayesian sank off the coast of Sicily. He was also the chairman of US bank Morgan Stanley International.

Mr Keogh previously held executive roles at Premium Credit, M&G and Virgin Money. His wife Judy was also confirmed dead yesterday by the Italian Coast Guard.

In a statement on Thursday, Hiscox chief executive Aki Hussain said:

A survey out this morning from GfK showed that UK consumer confidence stayed stable in August, as improving sentiment towards personal finances was offset by the first fall in economic expectations in six months.

The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer came in at -13, in line with the July reading and up from -25 in August of last year.

Three of the five sub-indices of the survey measuring people's personal finances improved in August while two measuring sentiment towards the economic environment worsened.

Notably, the sub-index measuring sentiment towards people's personal financial situation over the next 12 months jumped by three points to +6, which GfK client strategy director Joe Staton said could be due to the recent Bank of England interest-rate cut "and hopes of more to come".

Meanwhile, the major purchase index, which tracks the public's confidence in making major purchases such as furniture or electrical goods, improved to -13 from -16.

"The three-point jump in the major purchase index is great news for retailers with more shoppers agreeing that now is a good time to buy big-ticket items," Staton said.

However, two sub-indices measuring consumers' views on the economic situation both declined further into negative territory, with economic sentiment for the coming year falling four points to -15 - the first drop since February.

Nevertheless, Staton said that all the key numbers this month are "significantly more encouraging" than 12 and 24 months ago. "But as we move into autumn and winter, how much further will this slow improvement in the mood of the nation run?

Moving away from the energy price cap news... traders will have their focus on a speech from US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell later today at Jackson Hole.

The theme of this year’s event is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy”, and Powell’s speech simply has the title “Economic Outlook”.

Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank (DB) said:

DB said that it would be difficult for Powell to pre-commit to a particular trajectory at Jackson Hole. But they do think his comments will imply that the Fed can begin dialling back the degree of restraint soon, opening the door to a rate cut next month.

Yesterday brought a raft of Federal Reserve speakers, who didn’t lean into the rapid pace of cuts that was being priced by markets. Boston Fed President Collins said that she didn’t see any “big red flags”, and Philadelphia Fed President Harker said that “I think a slow, methodical approach down is the right way to go”.

Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that he wanted to see more data, saying that “Before we act — at least before I act, or recommend acting — I think we need to see a little bit more.”

Financial advice expert Martin Lewis has said that the lack of a cost of living support payment, as well as the scrapping of the winter fuel payment, would leave pensioners worse off than last year.

He told BBC Radio 4 this morning:

He acknowledged that energy rates are cheaper than they were last winter but said some 880,000 pensioners may be missing out on pension credit. He urged pensioners to check if they are eligible.

Energy secretary Ed Miliband said the energy price cap rise was “deeplying worrying”.

In a statement, he said:

Here's a breakdown of the specific changes to come...

• Gas prices will be capped at 6.24p per kilowatt hour (kWh), and electricity at 24.5p per kWh – up from 5.48p and 22.36p respectively now. A typical household uses 2,700 kWh of electricity a year, and 11,500 kWh of gas

• Households on prepayment meters will pay slightly less than those on direct debit, with a typical bill of £1,669

• Those who pay their bills every three months by cash or cheque will pay more, with a typical bill of £1,829

• Standing charges – a fixed daily charge covering the costs of connecting to a supply – will go up to 61p a day for electricity and 32p a day for gas, compared with 60p and 31p respectively now, although they vary by region

Energy bills are set to rise by an average of £149 a year from October under the new price cap, it has been revealed.

Ofgem announced it will hike the price cap to £1,717 per year for an average household, due to rising prices on the international energy market, adding £149 to average annual energy bills, or an extra £12 per month.

While this is an increase on the July to September period, the new cap will be 6% (or £117) cheaper compared to the same quarter last year, when the average bill was capped at £1,834.

The energy regulator blamed higher international energy prices, due to geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events, which are driving higher competition for gas. Ofgem said these factors were behind 82% of the increase.

Ofgem CEO Jonathan Brearley said:

Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight as the yen rose after Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda signalled it is still on the path to raise interest rates.

The Japanese currency rose as much as 0.7% against the dollar, while government bond futures fell.

In replies to politicians, Ueda said the BOJ’s stance had not changed, provided inflation and economic data continue in line with its forecasts.

The comments come after his deputy had sought to reassure markets that further hikes would also depend on the state of the market, after the central bank’s increase in July trigger a massive selloff in global equities.

The Nikkei (^N225) rose 0.4% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 0.2% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.2% down by the end of the session.

It came as Japanese inflation data exceeded forecasts. Consumer prices in July rose 2.8% from a year earlier, the same as the prior month and higher than the 2.7% expected by economists.

Meanwhile, equities in Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea declined, echoing Thursday’s selloff in the US as traders wait on Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later on Friday.

Across the pond on Wall Street, all three major American stock indexes lost ground last night, weighed down by technology shares, as US Treasury yields rose on easing recession fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 0.4%, to 40,712.78. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) lost 0.9%, closing at 5,570.64, and the Nasdaq (^IXIC)dropped 1.67pc, to 17,619.35.

The yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 3.86% from 3.80% late on Wednesday.

Good morning, and welcome back to our live markets blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets and happening across the global economy.

Here's a quick look at what's on the agenda for today...

• 12:0am: GFK Consumer Confidence

• 9am: EU PMI Services

• 9:30am: UK PMI Services

• 3pm: US New Homes Sales