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Right or wrong? Calling back Tennessee football predictions from before 2023 season

Last August, I made five bold predictions about Tennessee's 2023 football season.

Now that it’s over, how did I do?

Well, they’re called bold predictions for a reason. So maybe two out of five ain’t bad.

Looking back, here’s what I got right and wrong.

Tennessee will play in a Florida bowl: Right

UT needed to post a record of 8-4 or 9-3 to play in a Florida bowl – the Gator (Jacksonville), ReliaQuest (Tampa) or Citrus (Orlando).

I thought that was an easy pick, and I was right. Late in the season, the Vols projected to each of those three bowls at different points.

Their 8-4 regular-season record should've put them in the Gator Bowl or ReliaQuest Bowl. But they were fortunate to land in the Citrus Bowl because LSU, which had a better record, played there last season.

Vols will score 500 points again: Wrong

The Vols scored 511 points in 2021 and 599 points in 2022. I thought they’d get to 500 points again and average at least 38 per game.

But UT fell short of that, averaging only 31.8 points and scoring 413 total. It was emblematic of a season-long frustration on offense, which never fully found its rhythm.

Compared to 2022, UT downgraded at quarterback, offensive line and wide receiver. And that disparity showed.

The Vols should’ve scored more points in wins over Austin Peay (30), UTSA (45) and Texas A&M (20). And they underwhelmed in losses to Florida (16), Missouri (7) and Georgia (10).

Defense will close gap with offense: Right

The offense was bound to be worse than its No. 1 ranking in 2022. And the defense had steadily improved, so I figured that trend would continue.

I was right on both counts, but by a bigger margin than I ever imagined.

UT was actually better on defense than offense in 2023. It ranked No. 22 in scoring defense and No. 35 in scoring offense.

That’s balance, but not quite what the Vols wanted. They’ll expect the offense to get back into the top 10 next season as former five-star recruit Nico Iamaleava takes over at quarterback.

Three receivers will reach 750 yards: Wrong

Tennessee wide receiver Squirrel White (10) celebrates Tennessee wide receiver Ramel Keyton (9) during a football game between Tennessee and Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023.
Tennessee wide receiver Squirrel White (10) celebrates Tennessee wide receiver Ramel Keyton (9) during a football game between Tennessee and Vanderbilt at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023.

The idea was that UT would have more balance in this receiving corps. So Bru McCoy, Squirrel White and one other receiver would gain 750 yards receiving.

White had 803 yards. Ramel Keyton was just short at 642 yards. And McCoy suffered a season-ending injury, and his replacements never approached that output.

Admittedly, I fell into the trap that Josh Heupel’s offense can pile up yards with any wide receiver. It turns out that Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman aren’t so easily replaced. Lesson learned.

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More than one turnover per game: Wrong

UT fans should be elated that I missed this one.

The Vols committed only 24 turnovers in 26 games in their first two seasons under Heupel, which is an astonishing low number of errors. I thought they would slip slightly in 2023, but they instead kept up that disciplined play.

UT committed only 12 turnovers in 13 games this season. It was one of 15 teams in college football to average less than one turnover per game.

This is now the norm under Heupel, so I won’t make this mistake again.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Calling back Tennessee football predictions from before 2023 season