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Why Wisconsin can reach the Sweet 16 in our 2024 March Madness predictions

MINNEAPOLIS − After enduring an ugly stretch in February, winning just two of eight games, Wisconsin enters the NCAA Tournament with momentum and confidence.

After losing to Illinois in the Big Ten title game on Sunday, the Badgers were seeded No. 5 in the South Regional. They face No. 12 James Madison in the opening round on Friday at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. Tip-off is set for 8:40 p.m. (Central).

The winner faces either No. 4 Duke or No. 13 Vermont on Sunday, tip time to be determined.

A look at the tournament hopes of the Badgers, who have won three of their last four games.

How can the Badgers reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since the 2017 tournament?

UW shared the ball and scored well from both outside and inside the three-point line while winning 16 of its first 20 games.

As UW coach Greg Gard noted, the offensive execution masked the team’s defensive issues. When the offense sputtered in February, the defense wasn’t good enough to close out games.

The Badgers blew a 16-point halftime lead before falling in overtime at Nebraska, struggled to stop dribble penetration in a 4-point loss at Michigan and allowed Rutgers to hit 10 of 17 three-pointers in a 22-point loss.

There were fewer defensive breakdowns toward the end of the regular season and in the league tournament.

Wisconsin's AJ Storr shoots against Illinois's Terrence Shannon Jr.
Wisconsin's AJ Storr shoots against Illinois's Terrence Shannon Jr.

If the Badgers can shoot the ball efficiently, particularly from three-point range, and play solid defense in the tournament, they could make it to the second weekend.

Consider their first game in the Big Ten tournament, an 87-56 victory over Maryland.

UW hit its first 6 three-pointers and hit 10 of 13 in the first half to build a 21-point lead. The Badgers finished 16 of 25, with eight players hitting at least one three-pointer.

UW led by as much as 42 points in the second half and the 31 points was UW’s largest margin of victory in a Big Ten tournament game.

“I’ve got a really unselfish team,” Gard said after the victory over Maryland. “When we’re clicking, we’re really hard to guard because we’re unselfish and we have so many guys that are versatile and can put the ball in the basket.”

One player to watch is Steven Crowl. When the junior looks to score as much as he can facilitate the offense, UW is a better team and more difficult to defend.

Will UW suffer an early exit from the tournament?

The Badgers battled several issues when they lost eight of their final 11 regular-season games.

UW didn’t defend well enough, particularly late in games when stops were critical, and the three-point shooting trailed off.

The Badgers shot less than 31% from three-point range in five of those losses – Purdue, Michigan, Rutgers, Indiana and Purdue.

UW’s offense more often than not generates open looks from the perimeter, thanks to crisp ball/player movement.

When the Badgers hit three-pointers to complement their inside game, they can contend with most teams in the country.

HOW TO BUY: Wisconsin basketball tickets in 2024 NCAA Tournament

But will their perimeter shooting hold up?

Another area of concern is the health of several players.

Chucky Hepburn sat out one game in the Big Ten tournament because of a tender knee. Tyler Wahl is battling a knee injury and almost sat out the semifinal game against Purdue. Max Klesmit has been playing through a groin injury. John Blackwell has been hampered by an ankle injury.

"He's a little banged up," Gard said of Wahl. "But now we've got time to continue to freshenhim back up."

Prediction: How far will Wisconsin go?

The Badgers are playing well again and could advance to the Sweet 16 and possibly deeper in the tournament.

PREDICTION: Wisconsin basketball vs James Madison in first round of NCAA Tournament

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Wisconsin in Sweet 16 in March Madness predictions 2024. Here’s why