You sorta look familiar. The Texas men's basketball team would clearly love a reunion with their former coach, Rick Barnes, because that would mean the Longhorns would at least win one NCAA Tournament game. Barnes spent 17 seasons in Austin and took Longhorns teams to a Final Four in 2003 and a pair of Elite Eights. But he failed to reach the Sweet 16 his last seven years and was let go in 2015. Barnes has resuscitated Tennessee, which has never been to a Final Four, and the Longhorns could meet up with Barnes if they get by the Virginia-Colorado State winner in the first round.

Here are two reasons why Texas can make it to the Elite Eight:

Stumble aside, Texas enters NCAAs playing well

Unless Texas catches fire — and it could — the Elite Eight may be the ceiling for this wildly inconsistent team.

But Texas was playing its best basketball of the year until it stumbled badly in the first game of the Big 12 Tournament against Kansas State and actually goes into the postseason with a confident mindset after beating teams like No. 3 seed Baylor, No. 6 seed Texas Tech and No. 9 seed TCU, the last two on the road, and pushed No. 1 seed Houston to overtime at home.

If Texas can get by Virginia or Colorado State, it did gain an advantage with its No. 7 seed by avoiding the 8-9 pairing and being forced to go up against a 1 seed in the second round.

Dylan Disu, Max Abmas have been there before

Secondly, if Dylan Disu and Max Abmas get hot at the same time — and they both have tasted success in this tournament before, Disu with the Longhorns last year and Abmas at Oral Roberts, the team’s capable of stringing together a couple of wins.

Texas made it to the Elite Eight last year, helping Rodney Terry land the permanent head coaching job after finishing the 2022-23 season as interim coach.

And here are two reasons why the Longhorns can't make the Elite Eight:

Texas needs to get defensive

Two reasons. Tough draw. And streaky defense. Plus the Longhorns have never won more than five games in a row this season.

The Longhorns have almost never had that effective, third scoring option beyond Disu and Abmas. But their undersized guards and occasional lack of urgency on defense has frequently gotten them in trouble.

Texas’ defense ranks a lowly 88th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.

With Tennessee, Texas should be careful what it wishes for

Beating Virginia or Colorado State in the first round wouldn’t be a walk in the park, and Tennessee represents a huge potential stumbling block in the second round even though the Vols aren’t entering the tournament on a peak.

The SEC regular-season champs lost their last two games against Kentucky in the regular-season finale and then to Mississippi State in a shocking blowout. Still, with Naismith Award candidate Dalton Knecht and Barnes’ affinity for strong defense, the Vols figure to have too much for Texas in a second-round battle.

Prediction: How far will Texas go in the NCAA Tournament?

Texas surprisingly earned a higher-than-expected No. 7 seed, credit to an offense ranked 18th nationally and star power in Disu and scoring machine Abmas, a threat anywhere past midcourt. It hurts that the Longhorns face the survivor of a play-in game and won’t know their opponent for two days and then will probably have to play Tennessee in Charlotte, a 3½-hour jaunt from the Vols’ Knoxville campus. Here’s betting Texas puts aside the naysayers and wins its first game against Colorado State, then loses a heartbreaker to Barnes' Vols in the second round.

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Texas in Elite Eight in March Madness predictions 2024. Here’s why