OXFORD — Ole Miss baseball needs a miracle at the 2024 SEC Tournament to save its season.

After being swept in a decisive series at LSU to close out the regular season, Ole Miss must now reckon with the prospect of missing a regional for the second consecutive season – an unhappy feat the Rebels have never managed since coach Mike Bianco took over the program for the 2001 season.

Set to begin tournament play in a single-elimination game against Mississippi State (36-19) on Tuesday (8 p.m., SEC Network), Ole Miss (27-28) needs a deep run in Hoover, Alabama, to give the selection committee something to consider, or win the tournament and claim the automatic bid that comes with the trophy.

Can the Rebels do it? Here are cases for and against.

Why Ole Miss baseball can make an SEC Tournament run

Most of the other SEC programs want to win games at the conference tournament. The Rebels need to, and lots of them. While their opposition might be tempted to protect their pitching staff with their NCAA Tournament status secure, Ole Miss will be fighting for its season each time it takes the field.

Recently, that dynamic hasn't translated into success – 11 and 12 seeds are 3-7 in their opening games since 2018. Still, the potential difference in priority is worth mentioning.

While it still doesn't have elite-level starting pitching to compare with some of the teams in the top half of the SEC standings, Ole Miss does seem to have figured it out on the mound to some degree.

The Rebels own a 5.95 team ERA that ranks 12th in the league. That metric has been almost a full run better over their last 10 games.

A portion of that is owed to Ole Miss' success in finding reliable arms in the bullpen who can pitch multiple innings – something that is often key in tournament formats. Freshman lefthander Wes Mendes has been a revelation. In his last 9.1 innings of work – all against SEC opposition – Mendes has allowed just one run and struck out 13. His season-long numbers are ugly, but he's turned a corner. Josh Mallitz has been lights out lately, too, having returned from an injury. He last allowed an earned run on April 27.

Though they didn't produce much in a vital series against LSU, Ole Miss has bats in the middle of the order who can mash in Andrew Fischer and Jackson Ross. Slugging outfielder Ethan Lege is set for another X-ray on his fractured thumb on Monday. If the Rebels can add him, too, it would be a boost.

LSU SERIES: Unpacking another ugly SEC campaign for Ole Miss baseball after LSU sweep

Why Ole Miss baseball can't make a run in the SEC Tournament

You've read the rosiest possible interpretation of what's been another bad season for the Rebels, who rank in the conference's bottom two in runs scored and runs allowed. Here's what the flipside looks like.

The Rebels are among the worst power-conference teams in the country when it comes to simply catching the baseball, owning a .966 team fielding percentage that ranks 215th nationally.

Ole Miss' pitching staff has walked more batters this season than anyone else in the conference. Between the errors and the free passes, this team has offered few reasons to believe that it won't beat itself.

The Rebels finished where they did in the SEC standings for a reason. The underlying numbers say it was no fluke.

Furthermore, they never demonstrated an ability to sustain success in conference play. Ole Miss never won more than two SEC games in a row in 2024. Making the kind of run that the Rebels need would require immediate and drastic change.

David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.

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This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Why Ole Miss can — and can't — make a run in 2024 SEC baseball tournament