Mississippi State baseball’s last trip to the NCAA Tournament ended with a celebration at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha, Nebraska. After defeating Vanderbilt, MSU ended the 2021 postseason by securing its first national title.

Getting back to the pinnacle this year will feature a tougher path. The Bulldogs won’t have the comfort of Dudy Noble Field to host postseason games.

Instead, Mississippi State is a No. 2 seed in the Charlottesville Regional. Virginia (41-15), the No. 12 overall seed, is the host while St. John’s (37-16-1) is the No. 3 seed and Penn (24-23) is the No. 4 seed.

Here’s a look at why the Bulldogs − who open play Friday (6 p.m., ESPN+) against the Red Storm − will, or won’t, make it to a super regional.

Why Mississippi State will win Charlottesville Regional

To win the Charlottesville Regional, Mississippi State will likely have to go through Virginia. That means facing the ACC’s top offense.

UVA led the conference with a .339 batting average and 546 runs scored while ranking second with 114 home runs. Florida State (501) is the lone other ACC team with more than 500 runs scored this season. The Cavaliers are led by Bobby Whalen who is hitting .399 and Harrison Didawick whose 24 home runs are tied for second in the ACC.

However, Mississippi State poses a threat at halting the UVA offense. The Bulldogs’ 4.15 team ERA – which ranks fourth in the SEC – would be best among ACC teams.

“I feel good with our staff,” MSU coach Chris Lemonis said Monday. “I think we have one of the better staffs in the country.”

Mississippi State’s time at the SEC tournament adequately prepared the Bulldogs for a regional. MSU played four games in Hoover, Alabama, with wins against Ole Miss and Texas A&M before losses against Vanderbilt and Tennessee.

The conference tournament marked MSU’s first stretch of four games in four days this season, which simulates how a regional would pan out if it went to a decisive Game 7.

“I doubt many people want us showing up at their regional," Lemonis said. "That atmosphere − what we have gone through, our journey – has prepared us to go and play our best baseball anywhere.”

Why Mississippi State baseball won’t win Charlottesville Regional

The Red Storm earned an automatic bid as the Big East champion, but they’ve proven their success extends beyond a two-bid league.

St. John’s opened its season with a win at Florida, showing it can defeat an SEC foe.

“It’s just tough, hard-nosed, New York kids,” Lemonis said.

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MSU enters the NCAA Tournament with struggles on the offensive side. Slugger Hunter Hines has one hit since May 11 while potential first-round pick Dakota Jordan had one hit at the SEC tournament.

St. John’s had the best ERA (4.03) in the Big East, posing a threat to an MSU lineup looking to regain momentum.

“We’ve got a good lineup,” Lemonis said. “They’ve hit all year. They’ve had weeks where they haven’t hit, and they’ve come back and hit.”

Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.

This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Why Mississippi State baseball could win Charlottesville NCAA Regional