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Why Detroit Tigers signing prospect Colt Keith makes great sense, for player and team

Imagine somebody put an envelope in front of you and it contained a winning lottery ticket worth $28.6 million.

Granted, you would collect it over six years.

But it’s yours — fully guaranteed.

And what if it was tied to your job, and if you did your job well, as everybody expects, the value in that envelope could soar to $82 million over nine years.

Would you take it? Even if you might be leaving the potential for an even bigger payday on the table? Like, mind-blowing money.

Imagine declining that first envelope, living off $700,000 a year and waiting for the potential for an even bigger payday — so much money it could impact your family for several generations.

Yeah, I know, everything is relative. A million is a lot in my world and $28.6 million is staggering.

But I’m talking about the difference between a yacht and a mega-yacht that comes with a helicopter.

Does having the chance for that much money matter to you, even if it comes with tremendous risks? Because it could all disappear if your get hurt and aren't able to work, or if you struggle and don't produce at a high enough rate..

Because this is all tied to your performance.

What would you do?

Colt Keith, the Detroit Tigers' No. 2 prospect (and No. 22 in all of baseball) according to MLB Pipeline, just took the first option.

Detroit Tigers’ Colt Keith (2nd from left) poses with his father Troy Keith, his fiancé Kait Vickers, and his mother Mary Keith, during a press conference at Comerica Park in Detroit on Jan. 30, 2024.
Detroit Tigers’ Colt Keith (2nd from left) poses with his father Troy Keith, his fiancé Kait Vickers, and his mother Mary Keith, during a press conference at Comerica Park in Detroit on Jan. 30, 2024.

He signed a long-term deal with the Tigers and became an instant millionaire, even though he has never played in the majors. He is getting guaranteed money but giving up his arbitration years and a chance to become a free agent and get truly astronomical money (if he’s great) in his 20s.

“There's positives and negatives and risks on both sides,” Keith said Tuesday at a news conference conference at Comerica Park. “I think at the end of the day, you know, worst case for both of us, the organization and myself, is that I don't pan out and I end up with security financially for me and my family for the rest of our lives.”

But the best case?

Well, it’s remarkable to think about.

“Best-case for both of us is that, you know, all the option years are exercised, we win a couple World Series and bring it back to Detroit,” he said. “I make myself a boatload of money and I'm still a free agent at 31.”

Yes, Tigers fans would take that.

MORE FROM SEIDEL: Behind the scenes of Tigers prospect Colt Keith's amazing debut for Triple-A Toledo

A creative, different kind of deal

This contract situation is just fascinating.

“I'd like to thank Chris Ilitch, who was very supportive of this from the moment I shared the idea of a nontraditional contract for Colt,” Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris told a roomful of reporters.

Yes, it’s nontraditional all right, so give Ilitch and the Tigers’ front office credit for thinking outside the box.

Why would the Tigers lock up a player with no MLB experience?

In my eyes, it was a no-brainer.

First of all, they truly believe in Keith — the proof is in that contract — and they are locking him up for nine years at a cost-certain salary.

It's risky, but the cost is pretty low. At worst, they are getting Keith for six seasons around the cost of one year of Javier Baez ($25 million).

And if Keith is a great player, or even really good, his contract will become an incredible bargain for three more seasons.

The Tigers could wait for Keith to make his debut and see how he does, but that could drive up the price even more.

The Detroit Tigers’ president of baseball operations Scott Harris talks about Colt Keith, who they signed to a six-year contract that guarantees him $28,642,500 during a press conference at Comerica Park in Detroit on Jan. 30, 2024.
The Detroit Tigers’ president of baseball operations Scott Harris talks about Colt Keith, who they signed to a six-year contract that guarantees him $28,642,500 during a press conference at Comerica Park in Detroit on Jan. 30, 2024.

What if he gets hurt, or what if he flames out?

Yes, those are the risks on the Tigers side.

But it’s a small risk. Because he is so talented.

From what I’ve seen after spending time around Keith and his family, I firmly believe he’s going to be special. He is talented and driven, a hard worker, comes from a great family with strong work ethic and there’s no doubt in my mind he is going to hit.

When I look at Keith, I feel the same way I felt about Riley Greene when he was moving through the minors.

“His talent and his performance speak for themselves,” Harris said. “He has a combination of contact, power and discipline that's hard to find for someone his age.”

Will he be a superstar? You never know. But at worst, he’s going to be a very good MLB player.

So, I get why the Tigers signed him to this deal.

“We are looking for great teammates who have strong work ethic, who make themselves better and make the people around them better," Harris said. “We are looking for people who care about winning, who care about the Tigers winning and who are competing as hard in the in the gym and on the dirt in early work as they are in the in the batter's box. That's what we saw, what we get to see in Colt every day.”

That’s not spin.

That’s who Colt Keith is.

Everything came together

There are just so many layers to this situation.

It all begins with where he was drafted. The Tigers — give props to former GM Al Avila and his scouts — took Keith in the fifth round in 2020 and signed him for just a $500,000 bonus.

If he would have turned down that money and gone to Arizona State and become a high first-round pick, he would have several million in the bank already, and I’m not sure if he would take this deal now.

Some agents might say this is a bad deal for Keith. He’s giving away arbitration and a shot at free agency in his 20s.

But when players hold out for more money, or play to the end of their deal and elect for free agency, most of them are already millionaires.

Keith isn’t.

MORE FROM SEIDEL: Hype for Colt Keith grows: 'I never seen anybody hit the ball harder'

Will this put extra pressure on Keith?

The Detroit Tigers introduce Colt Keith, who they signed to a six-year contract that guarantees him $28,642,500 during a press conference at Comerica Park in Detroit on Jan. 30, 2024.
The Detroit Tigers introduce Colt Keith, who they signed to a six-year contract that guarantees him $28,642,500 during a press conference at Comerica Park in Detroit on Jan. 30, 2024.

No.

I think it takes all the pressure off him.

He has nothing to worry about, and he’s the leading candidate to be the Tigers' second baseman on Opening Day. Best of all, there is no shot of the Tigers messing around with service time, holding him in Toledo until late April or May.

This was a brilliant move by the Tigers, actually.

This puts the Tigers in such a great position moving forward. They have locked up a player they believe is a foundational piece at a reasonable cost, which should make it easier to sign some of their other young players in the future, just having a cost-certain player.

“For me, money's not the main concern,” Keith said. “The main concern is me getting on a big-league field and playing in the big leagues.”

When some players say that, it comes off sounding empty.

But Keith just proved it. What a refreshing perspective.

Even though this debate comes down to being a millionaire versus having the chance to become a gazillionaire, I don’t feel too bad for him.

His financial future is certain, and he can still buy a yacht.

More from Seidel: Tigers prospect Colt Keith has incredible bulk — in his body, his bat and his confidence

Contact Jeff Seidel at jseidel@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @seideljeff.

To read Seidel's recent columns, go to freep.com/sports/jeff-seidel.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Why Detroit Tigers signing Colt Keith makes sense, for player, team