Why a CFP berth is the fair expectation for Alabama football in 2024 | Goodbread
Make the playoffs.
It's a time-tested mantra for sports fans placing expectations on their teams, from the pros to high schools, spanning any sport you want to name. It's a benchmark for competitiveness, and sometimes a make-or-break demand on coaches whose seats are getting a little warm.
And for at least one year — this year alone — it's the right barometer to measure the success of new Alabama football coach Kalen DeBoer's debut season.
BAD BLOOD: Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa says former coach Brian Flores told him 'you suck' every day
PRESEASON HONORS: Two Alabama football players named preseason first-team All-Americans
That wouldn't be the case if the four-team College Football Playoff field that former UA coach Nick Saban's teams pursued were still in place. Even at Alabama, where tolerance for losing is scant, a first-year coach who dealt with transfer upheaval like DeBoer did deserves a more reasonable divider between success and failure than a national top-four finish. It could be argued that making the four-team field each year was too high an expectation for Saban, too, even though he made a routine of it.
All of which makes the advent of a 12-team CFP field a perfectly-timed change for DeBoer. He'll be competing for an invitation to bigger party now, one that in theory won't penalize him for a highly difficult schedule. One that should be more forgiving if the Crimson Tide proves to need a growing-pains Saturday or two. And one that, for the sake of revenue, is opening its doors wider than ever before. Simple math says it's three times easier to qualify for the CFP now, and with the talent DeBoer has returning, it's not unreasonable to expect Alabama to be one of the nation's 12 best teams.
The defending SEC champion Crimson Tide returns a starting quarterback in Jalen Milroe, most of its offensive line, and just enough key pieces on defense to buy younger defenders some time to develop. The edge rushers and cornerbacks will need to grow up quickly, but there is genuine optimism on the coaching staff for how the defense has progressed in fall camp. Throw in what should be an outstanding tandem of specialists in kicker Graham Nicholson and punter James Burnip, and Alabama has the look of a playoff-caliber squad.
Does it have the look of a champion? Check back after about a month of game action — long enough for the Crimson Tide to tangle with visiting Georgia on Sept. 28 — before we even begin to shape a conclusion on that front.
Qualifying for the 12-team playoff, however, isn't setting the bar too high.
Beyond 2024, expectations on DeBoer's program can and should be re-examined. After all, just making a 12-team playoff without success beyond that isn't going to satisfy Alabama fans in the long-term. Nor should it.
For this season, however, CFP qualification is as good a measuring stick as any.
Tuscaloosa News columnist Chase Goodbread is also the weekly co-host of Crimson Cover TV on WVUA-23. Reach him at cgoodbread@gannett.com. Follow on X.com @chasegoodbread.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Why a CFP berth is the fair expectation for Alabama football in 2024