Why Auburn football will — and why it won't — win at least 8 games in 2024
AUBURN — Auburn football coach Hugh Freeze admitted it after his team lost to Maryland in the Music City Bowl to cap his first season on the Plains — the Tigers left some wins on the field in 2023.
"I felt like we competed really, really well in some games, and we had some letdowns in others," Freeze said Dec. 30. "(We) didn't complete some games we could've won. We weren't consistent in the level of competitiveness that you have to have to win at this level. ... We can all say we need to improve our roster — and we've said that and we're working on that and we're going to do that — but even with the roster we had, I felt like we could've gotten more out of it if I had done a better job."
Freeze and his improved roster — the Tigers added the No. 10 recruiting haul in the Class of 2024 this offseason to go along with some notable transfers such as former Penn State receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith — will soon have another crack at things. With spring practice wrapped up, all that stands between Auburn and fall camp is the summer. The season opener against Alabama A&M is 114 days away.
The Tigers won six games in 2023. Winning two more in 2024 would be a clear step forward. Here are a couple reasons why Auburn will make that step, as well as a couple reasons why it won't:
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Why Auburn football will win at least 8 games in 2024
Improved receiving corps: Saying the Tigers overhauled at receiver is an understatement. Only two players at the position — Camden Brown and Caleb Burton III — are set to return from last season, and four of the seven newcomers are incoming freshman. In order for the offense to work and rebound from a putrid showing in 2023, former five-star recruit Cam Coleman will need to play as advertised. He seemed capable during the spring game, but the true test will come once SEC play begins in September.
Jalen McLeod is All-SEC caliber: Transferring in from Appalachian State last offseason, buck linebacker Jalen McLeod quickly made it known he was the most talented pass rusher on Auburn's roster, and perhaps the most talented defender period. He notched 48 tackles and 5.5 sacks in Year 1 with the Tigers. He also logged 38 pressures, per Pro Football Focus. Those are good numbers, no doubt. But with a new-look secondary on the backend, McLeod's ability to hurry opposing quarterbacks will be pivotal.
Why Auburn football won't reach 8 wins in 2024
Secondary losses may be too much: Between cornerbacks Nehemiah Pritchett and DJ James and safety Jaylin Simpson getting drafted into the NFL and safety Zion Puckett signing as a UDFA, Auburn lost nearly all of its starting secondary. The lone returner is Keionte Scott, who played in the nickel last season but now plans to play on the boundary in 2024. In response to the shuffle, the Tigers will have to rely on youth — sophomore CB Kayin Lee and redshirt freshman Sylvester Smith, among others — as well as some portal pickups in safety Jerrin Thompson (Texas) and cornerback Antonio Kite (Alabama).
The offense may never get going: To be blunt, Auburn's passing offense was broken in 2023. The Tigers averaged the least amount of production through the air in the SEC per game, and quarterback Payton Thorne rarely looked comfortable against notable competition. Between Thorne, the weapons around him, or lack thereof, and the coaching staff, blame was assessed in all areas. Auburn changed offensive coordinators from Philip Montgomery to Derrick Nix and reset at receiver. Now it's on Thorne to make things different.
Richard Silva is the Auburn athletics beat writer for the Montgomery Advertiser. He can be reached via email at rsilva@gannett.com or on X, formerly known as Twitter, @rich_silva18.
This article originally appeared on Montgomery Advertiser: Can Auburn football win 8 games in '24? Reasons why Tigers will, won't
