Talk about pressure: The current field of 12 playoff drivers vying for the 2024 Cup Series title will soon be trimmed to just eight — all hinging on what goes down at a unique 2.28-mile road-course/oval hybrid in Charlotte, where five different winners have emerged in the six races that have been held there.

So let‘s buckle up and dive into the numbers on the state of the championship race, with a particular focus on which drivers have the inside track to advance and what they need to do to make that happen. As a guide, we use my NASCAR playoff odds model, which simulates the rest of the playoffs 10,000 times and tracks how often each driver makes the Round of 8, the Championship 4 and, ultimately, wins the title at Phoenix.

After last Sunday‘s typically tumultuous finish at Talladega, here is the current forecast:

At the top of the Round of 12 advancement odds, we have points leader William Byron at 100 percent, locked into the next round — his 74-point cushion over the elimination line mathematically insulates him from dropping outside the top eight, no matter what happens at the Roval. A few others have all but clinched as well: Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson are both at least 52 points on the good side of the line at a race where only two drivers have ever broken the 50-point barrier (Ryan Blaney, with 51 in 2018, and Chase Elliott, with 52 in 2019). While still technically possible, it would be extremely unlikely for Bell or Larson to do poorly enough — and for one or more drivers currently below the line to do spectacularly enough — to leave either outside the Round of 8.

A few more names on the list have odds in excess of 95 percent: Denny Hamlin and Alex Bowman, both of whom scratched out solid finishes amidst the chaos at the end of Sunday‘s race.

Hamlin is 30 points above the line and would have to drop below five drivers in order to fall out of the next round. It‘s not impossible, but in the simulations where Hamlin failed to advance, he scored an average of just 4.2 points with an average finish of 33.2 — compare that with his career average finish at the Roval of 16.8, finishing outside the top 20 just once. Barring a terrible finish, plus a win from a driver beneath him in the standings (which happened in 53% of simulations where he didn‘t advance) and/or a few other strong runs from drivers below him, Hamlin ought to make it to the next round.

A similar story goes for Bowman, who‘ll carry a 26-point cushion into one of his best tracks on Sunday. To get knocked out, he‘d have to run poorly — his average finish in non-advancing simulations was 31.8 — at a place he‘s never finished lower than 10th, while a handful of drivers below him in the standings simultaneously have stellar days. It could happen, but it‘s not very likely. Here are the chances for advancement for Hamlin and Bowman based on how many points they score at Charlotte in our simulated races:

Below that duo, we shift into the realm of drivers who are still in decent shape — between 80% and 92% to move on — but need to make sure they take care of business on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney, Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott all have a clear path to move on, despite each getting caught up in the carnage at Talladega. Blaney, for instance, finished second-to-last a week ago, but his leftover 25-point cushion over ninth place in the standings is a nice insurance policy. Given that, plus his good (if not great) résumé on road courses, he would need something wild to happen to get locked out of the next round.

For Reddick, it‘s all about cashing in on the opportunity to close out the round at one of his bread-and-butter track types. He‘s one of the favorites at the Roval whether we look at the betting odds or the statistical history; he has four top-eight finishes in five tries there, and has never finished worse than 12th. When Reddick finishes top 15 in our simulations at Charlotte, he makes the Round of 8 at a 98% clip. The exact same thing can be said for Elliott, who was once the Cup Series‘ clear-cut best road racer — he has two career wins at the Roval and has finished worse than 12th just once in six career starts.

That‘s not to say we‘re not also in the range of drivers where the pressure is building to high levels, however. Using the forecast model, I have a measure of “leverage” for each driver in a given race, based on how much their odds figure to swing (relative to their current state) depending on how they finish. Here are those rankings for this weekend‘s race:

Despite their solid odds, Blaney, Reddick and Elliott are also among the drivers facing the highest pressure. And they‘re very much joined in that group by a pair of playoff drivers currently sitting below the line: Joey Logano and Daniel Suárez.

(This note comes with apologies to Austin Cindric and Chase Briscoe, who are both below 5% to advance, according to the model, and probably need wins to make it through. Conditional on not winning, Cindric only has a 2.9% chance to move on, while that number for Briscoe is just 1.3%.)

Logano and Suárez are the wild cards that will determine the entire playoff picture on Sunday. In simulations where Joey finishes top 10, his odds of making the Round of 8 rise from their current level of 27% to 71% — making him the single driver who most benefits from a strong run. (Suárez is second by that measure, rising from 11% to 42% with a top 10 at Charlotte.) And Logano, in particular, will be the nemesis of every driver hovering above the cutline. In simulations where at least one of Hamlin, Blaney, Bowman, Elliott or Reddick fail to advance, Logano has an average finish of 12.5; in simulations where they all make it, Logano‘s average finish is 21.5.

This isn‘t to say Logano completely controls the destiny of both himself and every other driver on the bubble for the Round of 8. He can have a strong run and still miss the next round, depending on who else does well. But each of their chances of advancing are negatively correlated with Logano‘s, and most likely, they can‘t all make it through.

That means everyone among that pack must know where Joey is at all times (and vice-versa) in order to maximize their odds of staying in the championship hunt on Sunday.