The Memphis basketball freefall continued Wednesday, further muddying its March Madness outlook.

The Tigers' fourth straight loss came at the hands of the Rice Owls − a team that still has a NET ranking of just 223. After that game at FedExForum, coach Penny Hardaway determined Memphis (15-6, 4-4 AAC) has just one option if it wants to get back to the NCAA tournament.

“Well, I mean, you’ve got to finish the season strong. Then, you’ve got to get into the (AAC) tournament, and you’ve got to win it,” he said. “That’s the position we’ve put ourselves in right now.”

Once penciled in as a 3-seed by some bracketologists, the Tigers (labeled "one of the least predictable teams in the country," by ESPN's Joe Lunardi) are in serious jeopardy of having to earn the AAC's automatic bid just to ensure themselves a spot in the Big Dance for a third straight year.

Here is exactly where Memphis (which hosts Wichita State at noon Saturday) stands on Friday, according to a variety of projections.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN

The Tigers are Dayton-bound, where they will face Seton Hall as an 11-seed, according to Lunardi. He has them at the top of the "last four in" column in his latest bracketology, which was published Friday morning.

"Memphis basketball and a roulette wheel have a lot in common − and here we go again," he wrote. "Where the wheel eventually stops, nobody knows."

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports

The Tigers are completely out of Palm's most recent projection, and they don't appear in his "first four out" grouping, either.

Mike DeCourcy, FOX Sports

DeCourcy has Memphis in as a 12-seed. But, like Lunardi, he's got the Tigers in the First Four at Dayton facing Washington State.

Jon Rothstein, College Sports Today

Rothstein pegs the Tigers as the last team in his "last four out" category, falling behind Gonzaga, Butler and Cincinnati.

Dave Ommen, Bracketville

Memphis also falls under the "last four out" heading in Ommen's latest bracket update, posted Friday.

But Ommen has the Tigers slightly higher than Rothstein, behind only Florida and Washington State in the race to be included in the field of 68.

MEMPHIS BASKETBALL VS. WICHITA STATE: Score prediction for Penny Hardaway's struggling Tigers

USA TODAY Sports

The Tigers fell out of USA TODAY's field Friday, falling past the "first four out." It has Memphis as the top team in the "next four out" category.

Shelby Mast, Bracket WAG

Memphis is in better shape in Mast's mind. He has the Tigers safely in the field as an 11-seed, the No. 41 overall seed in his field. According to Mast's latest projection, Memphis will face Colorado State in Salt Lake City in the first round.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or follow him @munzly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis bracketology update: Latest NCAA bracket predictions for Tigers