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Where FAU's March Madness resume stands for 2024 NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday

BOCA RATON — Florida Atlantic had the chance to answer a lot of questions headed into the American Athletic Conference Tournament.

Instead, the Owls (25-8, 14-5) await their fate on Selection Sunday with more uncertainties than they started with.

Before falling to 11th-seeded Temple (16-19, 5-13) in the AAC Semifinal on Saturday, FAU was locked into an NCAA Tournament top-9 seed by most major outlets. But the 74-73 loss marks their third Quad 2 loss of the year, and members of the selection committee will be sure to notice.

One thing isn't uncertain, however. Despite social media whispers of not deserving an at-large bid, the Owls are most likely not done playing basketball.

Most bracketologists have had FAU locked in for a long time. Additionally, the selection committee had voted in a majority of their at-large bid selections before the Owls even played Saturday.

"So we have 35 at-larges out of the 36 that have been voted into the field," said NCAA Senior Vice President Dan Gavitt in an interview with NCAA.com on Saturday afternoon. "That would make it seem like there is only one team left to choose, and that is true. However, we will choose many more than that because among those 35 that are on the at-large board right now are several that will win their conference and become automatic qualifiers, thus opening up an at-large spot."

FAU center Vlad Goldin (50) battles with Temple's Jordan Riley during Saturday's AAC semifinal in Fort Worth, Texas.
FAU center Vlad Goldin (50) battles with Temple's Jordan Riley during Saturday's AAC semifinal in Fort Worth, Texas.

So the Owl faithful can take a deep breath. It's unlikely FAU gets the cold shoulder on Selection Sunday - but this is March when anything is possible.

Here's where FAU's resume stands as the NCAA Selection Committee decides its fate:

As of Saturday night, ESPN's Joe Lunardi has moved the Owls down to a Last Four Bye. With their third Quad 2 loss of the year coming at such a consequential time, expect FAU to fall at least to a No. 10 seed, but more likely a No. 11 spot.

Unlike many of their Power-5 counterparts, the Owls have just as many Quad 4 losses as they do Quad 1 wins. As a matter of fact, 69 out of the top 70 NET teams in the country do not have multiple Quad 4 losses. The Owls (ranked No. 33 in NET) are the lone program with two.

There are just four teams in the nation's top-50 NET rankings with two or fewer Quad 1 wins; Auburn (No. 5, 1-7), Indiana State (No. 30, 1-4), FAU (No. 33, 2-2), and Wake Forest (No. 44, 2-8).

Knowing this, it will be hard for the Selection Committee to slate the Owls into a top-10 seed. More than likely, FAU will be handed anywhere from a No. 11 to No. 13 seed.

Could Owls be headed for a play-in game?

Another scenario to approach is a play-in situation for FAU. Indiana State is the most likely play-in at the No. 11 spot should it be handed an at-large bid. St. John's is also on the bubble, and Lunardi has the Red Storm as a Last Four In after falling to Connecticut in the Big East Semifinals. Indiana State is ranked No. 30 in the NET, but has a worse Quad 1 record and fewer Quad 2 wins than the Owls.

Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May calls out a play during the Owls' loss to Temple in the AAC semifinals Saturday in Fort Worth, Texas.
Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May calls out a play during the Owls' loss to Temple in the AAC semifinals Saturday in Fort Worth, Texas.

But three bubble teams stole an automatic qualifier on Saturday night, opening the door for a wild bubble scenario.

New Mexico won the Mountain West over San Diego State, jumping out of the bubble and into an automatic qualifier spot, as did North Carolina State with its upset of North Carolina in the ACC title game. Oregon, a squad Lunardi had as a Last Four Out, downed Colorado in the Pac-12 title game. So there will be more automatic bids handed to bubble teams, and more programs vying for at-large bids with better NET resumes than the Owls.

More: Can Florida Atlantic make another run to the Final Four? Here's what two analysts say | D'Angelo

Last year's Final Four run may be enough for FAU to not have to play-in. The Owls have the same expectations and pedigree within the program, but as their resume proves, this is a much different year. With all of Saturday's upsets, we'll see how the committee responds to the Temple loss soon enough.

The Palm Beach Post will keep you updated throughout the weekend and the rest of the tournament on the Owls' outlook, including on Selection Sunday, with matchup predictions, analysis and information on how to watch and how to purchase tickets.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: FAU's March Madness bracket predictions for 2024 NCAA Tournament