Where did we go wrong this wild fantasy basketball season — and how can we go right in 2023-24?
By Alex Barutha, RotoWire
Special to Yahoo Sports
With the 2022-23 NBA season coming to a close on Easter Sunday, it's a good time to look back and see where we — the collective fantasy community — went wrong this season.
Rather than just listing off 10 players' Average Draft Positions and pointing out why they underperformed, I placed those players in the context of broader mistakes.
These mistakes aren't all unique to this season specifically, but context from 2022-23 will emphasize the issues. Next season, taking these lessons to heart will help us be more informed drafters and managers.
Overvaluing certain stars
While discussing fantasy value, leading with the caveat that different leagues call for different team builds is essential. Playing in a head-to-head categories league, you should strive to win five of the nine categories. Constructing a more balanced team is generally more successful if you're in a roto format. So, when I say we overvalued certain stars, I'm referring to general fantasy value more suited for roto formats.
Typically, overvaluing a star player results from not realizing the weight of their percentages or a lack of defensive contributions. A prime example of the former is Giannis Antetokounmpo. His free-throw percentage (64.6%) is so harmful at 12.2 attempts per game that he's ranked 103rd in per-game fantasy value this season. Drafting Giannis is a one-man category punt, which hurts in roto formats.
One-category-punt builds in roto leagues lock you into a team build that's less than ideal. In this case, you practically have to target other poor free-throw shooters, which has consequences, since those are almost always big men. Suddenly, you have no assists or threes, and now you're punting three categories.
Ja Morant and Zion Williamson fall into this category as well. Zion is a lot like Giannis — poor free-throw percentage and doesn't hit threes. He ranked 68th in per-game value this season. Morant's deficiencies are less extreme, but they add up. Aside from his scoring (26.5) and his passing (8.1), it's relatively underwhelming in fantasy. He only hits 1.5 threes per game and accumulates just 1.4 steals-plus-blocks. He's also a mediocre free-throw shooter (75.3%) at a relatively high volume (8.3 attempts). Add everything up, and he's ranked 87th this season per game.
Undervaluing non-glamour stats
When you sit down and look at fantasy rankings, there are always a few surprises. A considerable chunk of those come in the form of players that, in real-life NBA circles, are not considered stars, but they're among the best fantasy players you can roster.
Often, it's because of their defense, free-throw percentage and turnovers — the non-glamour stats. Understanding the value these players hold can swing your fantasy season.
Here's how the first-round rankings would look if you played in a league that counted just STL, BLK, TOV and FT% (total value):
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Brook Lopez
Jimmy Butler
Mikal Bridges
Fred VanVleet
De'Anthony Melton
Trey Murphy
O.G. Anunoby
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Gary Trent
Alex Caruso
What's interesting about that group is that every player outperformed their Average Draft Position. The lesson: Don't get caught up in chasing points, rebounds and assists.
Not recognizing "Empty Calorie" players
This goes in tandem with the previous section. Plenty of players throughout the NBA can get you points and threes night after night, but their other contributions are hollow. Just as much as fantasy managers ignore defense, free throws and turnovers, they overweigh points.
This season's primary culprits are Keldon Johnson (22 PPG, rank 164), Kyle Kuzma (21 PPG, rank 99), Jordan Poole (21 PPG, rank 141) and Jordan Clarkson (21 PPG, rank 182).
First and foremost, these guys are not getting you defensive numbers. Secondly, their scoring isn't that efficient. Fifty-three players averaging over 20 PPG this season qualified for the true-shooting percentage leaderboard. Johnson is 46th; Kuzma is 47th; Poole is 37th; Clarkson is 44th. And finally, don't be fooled by what the "new normal" is for rebound and assists stats. As the NBA has gotten smaller and more skilled, more rebounds and assists are available for the average player. Five rebounds and three assists may as well be zero rebounds and zero assists. This season, 84 players averaged at least five rebounds, and 85 averaged at least three assists. Ten years ago, 68 players grabbed at least five boards, and 60 handed out at least three assists. So, Johnson averaging 22/5/3 isn't as impressive as the average fan or fantasy manager might believe.
Not paying enough attention to team context
Fantasy managers frequently make the mistake of viewing players in a vacuum. "Player X is young, so he will absolutely get better in his second year" is the primary culprit. But there are instances where the opposite happens, and a player is ignored despite being in a great position.
Examples of the former include Scottie Barnes and Franz Wagner. The hope was that Barnes would become a better shooter, but with Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby still around, there wouldn't be much more usage for Barnes as a sophomore. His ceiling was lower than the average drafter believed.
Drafting Wagner wasn't as much of a burn, but with No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero coming in, especially one who is also a playmaking forward, Wagner's ceiling was lowered. Plus, a nearly full season of Markelle Fultz would take touches away from Wagner as well.
An example of someone who got ignored is Nic Claxton. He was the only viable center on the Nets, but drafters worried he would clash with Ben Simmons. The same could be said for Walker Kessler, though he was less of a known commodity. On the same team, Lauri Markkanen was underdrafted because people thought Collin Sexton would be the No. 1 option, but even if Markkanen was the No. 2 option, that would still open up a ton of shot attempts.
