Week 17 Fantasy Football Fades & Busts
Just because a player is listed as a “fade” doesn’t mean they are automatic sits. As the adage goes, “Always start your stars.” What a “bust” designation does mean, however, is that you’ll want to consider higher-upside options in the flex.
Welcome to Week 17, (soon-to-be) fantasy football champions. You’ve got your eye on the prize, and all that’s standing between you and that sweet, sweet championship is (hopefully) a few smart lineup decisions. Of course, preparing for potential stinkers in your lineup is key to making those smart decisions, so I’m here to help.
Here are six players to temper expectations for in your Week 17 fantasy lineups.
Bust: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Counting on Tua Tagovailoa to carry your fantasy football teams has been a dicey ask in some weeks throughout the 2023 season. In Week 17? Fuhgeddaboudit.
Not only do fantasy managers have to deal with the fact that Tagovailoa’s heading out on the road, where he’s underperformed this year, but they’ll also have to reckon with a matchup against a terrifying Baltimore Ravens defense. Even worse, he’ll face that terrifying defense without wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who’s trending toward being out with a high-ankle sprain.
The Ravens defense is surging coming off a road outing against the 49ers, having held then-MVP favorite Brock Purdy to just 2.4 total fantasy points on the back of a 255-passing-yard, zero-touchdown, four-interception outing. Baltimore has allowed a league-low 5.6 yards per pass attempt, 2.5% passing touchdown percentage and 9.2% explosive-pass-play rate this season while tied for the 12th-highest interception rate. Beware trusting Tagovailoa in a must-win week as he heads into one of the most challenging road environments in the league at M&T Bank Stadium.
Bust: Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
There might not be a more disappointing fantasy asset than Pollard this year, who was expected to have a monstrous season as he finally assumed the role of a lead back. It hasn’t quite come to fruition, however, averaging a career-low 4.0 yards per attempt, 2.87 yards after contact per attempt and 0.83 yards per route run. Still, fantasy managers have likely had some trouble fading Pollard in any given week, since he’s ranked fifth in the league with 271 scrimmage touches heading into Week 17.
Unfortunately, Pollard won’t see much of a reprieve Week 17. He will face one of his most challenging defensive matchups yet this season against the Detroit Lions, whose rushing defense has been a force to be reckoned with. This year, the Lions have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards in the league, only behind the Bears, Patriots and 49ers, allowing opposing rushers an average of just 3.7 yards per carry and 2.5 yards after contact per attempt. Expect Detroit to keep Pollard in check with an inefficient outing and the potential for a down week if he doesn’t happen to find his way into the end zone.
Fade: Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants
The New York Giants have certainly had their ups and downs in HC Brian Daboll’s second year, now set to start their third different quarterback in the 2023 season here in Week 17. Their general lack of defensive success has put them in some unfavorable positions, too, not allowing much time if any to establish the run, ranked bottom 10 in run play percentage throughout the 2023 season. All of these circumstances have, of course, paved the way for some up-and-down weeks for RB Saquon Barkley, unfortunately for fantasy football managers.
In Week 17, the Giants will host the LA Rams, whose 70.6 PFF run defense grade ranks seventh among all units in the league, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game throughout the 2023 season. That’s in part thanks to having faced just a 36.3% run-play percentage this year, as teams have had to play catchup with Matthew Stafford and his trio of offensive weapons (Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams). Don’t expect any of these circumstances to favor a solid day from Barkley, who’s averaged just 4.0 yards per carry and 0.76 fantasy points per touch (16th fewest among RBs with 100+ rush attempts). Hopefully, Barkley’s target volume will provide him with a safe enough floor to not kill your lineups, but it’s best to temper expectations in a big way.
Bust: Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
London hasn’t been the most reliable of assets in the world, but consider it a riskier venture than usual to deploy him into your fantasy football lineups. The Falcons will desperately need a victory this week to keep their playoff hopes (and Arthur Smith’s future with the team) alive, but this Week 17 matchup against the Chicago Bears won’t offer them much in the way of upside even despite their wide array of weapons. London (and the rest of the Falcons offense) has been particularly volatile on the road. London in particular has struggled on the road this season, with every single one of his five games with more than 55 receiving yards having come at home in Mercedes Benz Stadium. Soldier Field, projected for near-freezing temps with a 10% chance of rain, projects this offense for some similar struggles.
The Bears have notched the fifth-highest defensive success rate on targets to the wide receiver position since Week 9, averaging -0.12 expected points added per dropback on such targets — the third-fewest among NFL defenses. It’s amounted to significantly limited upside, with Amari Cooper and Amon-Ra St. Brown having been the only receivers to score 15+ fantasy points (half-PPR) against them in that span. Considering London’s finished as a WR3 or worse in all but three of his matchups this season, he’s a must-bench in your fantasy football championships against this Bears defense.
Fade: DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
Moore has been a boom-or-bust asset throughout most of the 2023 season, but fantasy managers will want to be cautious in their fantasy football championships, as this could be one of those “bust” weeks! As mentioned, the Bears will host the Falcons in Week 17 — an underrated matchup for opposing wide receivers, as they've allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game this season.
There have been just two wide receivers since Week 9 to have scored 10 or more fantasy points (half-PPR) against the Atlanta Falcons, zero of whom managed to eclipse 15 fantasy points. In that span, the Falcons defense has allowed the fifth-fewest catches, 10th-fewest receiving yards (1,571) and seventh-fewest yards after the catch (732), having given up just a single receiving touchdown to opposing wideouts. All of that has come on the back of the highest contested target percentage in the league (21.2%). Though Moore has generally excelled in contested catch situations in 2023, it’s probably best to temper expectations for Moore’s upside against this surging defense.
Bust: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
Kincaid had a monstrous mid-season breakout, but since the Bills' Week 13 bye, things have been awfully quiet for his fantasy managers. Back in Week 7, Kincaid caught all eight of his targets for 75 receiving yards — a performance that amounted to the highest-scoring fantasy performance any tight end has had against the Patriots all season long. However, since the team fired former OC Ken Dorsey after their Week 10 loss to the Broncos, their passing volume has decreased exponentially, with the second-lowest pass play percentage in the league from Week 11 on.
There’s no question that the Bills are indisputably the better team, but there’s also no doubt that this Patriots defense will still show up to play. Since Week 9, the Patriots have ranked fourth in the league with a 56% defensive success rate on targets to the tight end position, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Those targets have yielded -0.32 expected points per dropback — the second-fewest in the league in that span — amounting to just under seven fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
