Week 15 Fantasy Football Sleeper Picks
It was a middling set of results for the Sleeper Page last week. Isaiah Likely was terrific between the Baltimore raindrops, and Cade Otton and Parker Washington at least offered touchdown deodorant to offset otherwise quiet games. On the flip side, Jonathan Mingo absorbed nine targets but nothing much came of it (Bryce Young missed him on a sure touchdown), Roschon Johnson was ignored in the Chicago backfield, Elijah Moore had a modest 42 yards and the Joshua Dobbs story expired.
And now we're onto Week 15.
Although it's the money weeks of fantasy football, the playoffs, I hope this page is less critical for your plans. Here's hoping you've built a Superteam and the starters practically pick themselves. But we know leagues come in all shapes and sizes — with unique challenges — and it's probably the deep-league managers who need these ideas the most.
WR Curtis Samuel at Rams (35% rostered)
Somehow Sam Howell is having a strong fantasy year (QB6) but there's not a big winner downfield. The Commanders don't have a single wideout inside the top 35 for the year, and that's despite good health and plenty of high-scoring games. Terry McLaurin has been a mild disappointment, Jahan Dotson a major one.
Samuel is no savior, but he's been busy lately, absorbing a quarter of Washington's targets and 38.6% of the team's receiving yards over the last two games. The matchup against the Rams is gettable; Los Angeles ranks 22nd in pass defense DVOA, and the game has a juicy total of 49, the second-highest on the slate. Samuel runs quickly-defined routes that Howell is likely to target, and that should lead to a playable line in Week 15.
RB D'Onta Foreman at Browns (43% rostered)
This might be more of a case of stashing and holding rather than using Foreman this week. Cleveland's defense is a problematic matchup; it ranks third in run defense DVOA and is the second-stingiest defense when it comes to handing out points to running backs.
Foreman should be a lot more fun next week, up against that green light Arizona draw.
But let's first take a look at the usage trend. The Bears had all of their backs healthy last week in the win over the Lions, and Chicago appeared to make its choice: Foreman. He collected 11 carries and three targets; Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson had just four carries between them, and neither was targeted. Foreman's main competition for carries here is probably Justin Fields, not the other tailbacks. I'm still surprised Foreman's roster tag is so low, especially with Arizona lying in wait for Week 16.
TE Chigoziem Okonkwo vs. Texans (34% rostered)
Okonkwo was on plenty of sleeper lists this summer, and that already goes down as a loss. We're into the middle of December and Okonkwo still doesn't have a touchdown, and the Titans are not a proactive passing team. But say this for Okonkwo, he's become the team's second-most important target, averaging four catches for 51 yards over the last three games.
And with two Houston matchups coming (this week, and in two weeks), the finish could be fun; the Texans are the fourth-friendliest defense to opposing tight ends. You'd have to be in a pinch to start Okonkwo in a playoff game, but at least the last three weeks show a consistent trend. He's still the rare tight end who has the ability to win on deeper routes.
Superflex Sleeper: QB Nick Mullens at Bengals (3% rostered)
I want to make it clear this is a call for the Superflex crowd. If you are in a league that only requires one quarterback (and you find yourself needing to add someone), Jake Browning would make more sense, and Joe Flacco's floor is also higher than Mullens'. But desperate times call for desperate measures; in one of my 14-teamers, with C.J. Stroud in jeopardy of not playing (and Davis Mills was already rostered!), Mullens became my forced pivot.
Mullens has been around the block; he's logged 17 starts over a seven-year career, and he's been inside the Minnesota building for almost two years. His time in San Francisco wasn't bad: 16 starts, 25 touchdowns, 22 picks, a 7.7 YPA. Kevin O'Connell is something of a quarterback whisperer, and Minnesota has legitimate downfield weapons. Cincinnati has been a top-10 defense to target with respect to fantasy points allowed. Maybe Mullens can come through with a holiday miracle.
ALREADY PLAYED: WR Quentin Johnston at Las Vegas (21% rostered)
Charger fans don't want to look back at the 2023 NFL Draft, because Johnston already looks like a possible mistake. He was the 21st overall pick in the spring, right before Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison. Flowers looks like the early winner here, and Addison has posted more splash plays than Johnston. When you think of Johnston, you first remember the soul-crushing drops.
But Johnston's had his moments, too. His last two weeks have marked his best yardage games of the year, and two of his three grabs last week were long completions from new quarterback Easton Stick (one for 57 yards, one for 22 yards). If nothing else, we can take heart in some obvious chemistry between Johnston and Stick.
The Raiders defense is a negative draw, and the Chargers face a difficult pass-defense schedule for the fantasy playoffs (Raiders, Bills, Broncos), but Johnston could have 6-10 targets in his back pocket this week. When in doubt, we need to follow the opportunity.
