Week 15 Care/Don't Care: It's time to have 'the conversation' about Trevor Lawrence
Five things I care about
A signature Lamar Jackson game
Cris Collinsworth said it best late in the game when discussing Lamar Jackson and his MVP candidacy. It’s hard to quantify what Lamar Jackson brings to this Ravens offense. There are very few teams where you watch the offense and the entire vision of what the unit is even trying to do crumbles if you imagine a different man under center. The Ravens and Lamar Jackson are in that small circle.
Rarely does fake football perfectly describe how a player performs on the field and that’s definitely the case for Jackson. He has had a verifiably hilarious fantasy football season. Well, at least the folks who didn’t roster him can muster a chuckle.
Every week it seems like you’re watching Jackson avoid sacks, whip throws into impossible windows at wild arm angles and make some of the best decisions scrambling in the open field … and then you check the fantasy box score and he has a mere 15 points or so. It’s been a mystifying season.
Week 15 was another entry in that diary. Jackson was not perfect but he added so much to the offense nonetheless.
Almost any other quarterback comes out of that Week 15 game with five to seven sacks. Jackson took just three and kept a number of drives alive to help this team win. His evolution as a scrambler continues to be so impressive. He’s probably not as fast as he once was but even still, Jackson almost never runs at full speed like he did in 2019 or 2020 because he’s now far better at setting runs up, allowing blocks to develop and creating lanes with his vision. Several of his fourth-quarter runs against the Jaguars were beautiful examples of this development.
The passing stats were a little underwhelming in Week 15. If you’re trying to put him in the MVP race, it’ll be tough to measure his aerial resume against a Brock Purdy type. That’s why these conversations about quarterbacks have to be so much more nuanced. The 171 passing yards just don’t begin to tell the whole story of his play.
For my money, that win against the Jaguars was a signature one for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. And he’s not all that’s great about that team. The defense is as suffocating as ever and Todd Monken has changed how the scoring unit does its work. Yet, when you watch the Ravens play, so much of what they’re able to pull off is thanks to having No. 8 at quarterback.
James Cook adds a new dimension
How many times the last few years have we come out of a Bills' blowout win and Josh Allen isn’t the story? I can’t remember many instances but that’s the case coming out of Week 15.
Josh Allen threw for 94 yards in the #Bills 31-10 win.
“I felt like the kid that didn't do anything in the class project and got an A."
😂😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/xUj21NWdMC— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) December 18, 2023
I’d hardly say Allen didn’t do anything but I get the sentiment. The defense put up a monstrous showing against an offense that’s been on a pure heater for the better part of two months. And on offense, Allen took a backseat to James Cook.
The second-year back was beyond electric against Dallas. He took his 25 carries — easily clearing his previous career-high — for 179 yards and a score while hauling in a pair of catches for 42 yards and another score. The passing-game usage continues to feel so much more intentional and well-designed under Joe Brady, but it was the rushing performance that was a true revelation for Cook.
He’s been running well of late but this was a different level. Cook’s vision to find cutback lanes was on full display. That’s some high-level, bell-cow type of rushing from a guy who is typecasted as a space back. That vision combined with the explosiveness Cook has in his legs is simply an unfair combination.
Cook’s emergence as a critical force has been a huge win for those rostering him in fantasy down the stretch. It’s changed the equation for this Buffalo offense. This group hasn’t had a traditional running game to lean on to close games out, much less be the counterpunch they’ve so desperately needed to Allen and the passing game. Cook is becoming that guy. It’s changed the complexion of this offense and is just another reason this team is so dangerous — if they are able to get into the postseason.
David Njoku took over the game
I know I’ve talked about some of the receivers getting more quality downfield throws from Joe Flacco. That’s all still true but tight end David Njoku has been the primary beneficiary of Flacco’s run as Cleveland's starter.
Over the last two weeks, Njoku has 22 targets to his name and has scored three times. On Sunday, he enjoyed his first 100-yard game since Oct. 10, 2021. He flashed the type of elite talent that made him such a tantalizing prospect all the way back in 2017, the talent we knew was simmering just below the stretch.
Njoku averaged just 5.8 air yards per target, per Next Gen Stats. He’s been a factor underneath all season but because Flacco has shown you need to respect the whole field when he’s under center, the short area is much less congested. That allows the hulking tight end to break tackles and slice through open lanes.
It’s all coming together.
I was a little concerned that Njoku might be asked to stick inside and do some extra blocking this week with Cleveland down to the third-string right tackle and backup left tackle. The 14 targets clearly indicate otherwise. Kevin Stefanski knew this was going to be a pass-heavy game plan against a stout Bears run defense and with those injuries on the line. And if that was the case, there was just no way you could do that and not involve a guy playing like Njoku has been of late.
David Njoku looks like one of the right answers at the tight end position this fantasy season and so much of it is because the offense has blossomed into its true form under Joe Flacco.
What a sentence.
Jaylen Waddle dominates without Tyreek Hill
We’ve all marveled at the production of Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins offense. Rightfully so. But usually, when someone has that type of season, either the entire offense is setting records or a teammate is producing under expectations.
The latter has been the case for Miami, and Jaylen Waddle has been the victim.
Waddle was a near-universal Round 2 pick in fantasy football back in August. He hasn’t been a disaster or anything like that but he’s a fringe top-20 receiver on the year. That certainly counts as a disappointing season.
It’s worth digging deeper about how much of this is simply due to Hill being an unstoppable force this season. It’s hard to blame the Dolphins for building the plane of the offense around Hill when he’s a walking easy button. Let’s also acknowledge Waddle has been dealing with multiple injuries this season. Waddle’s lack of production may be nothing more than circumstance. At the same time, I think it is fine to wonder if Waddle was at fault for some portion of it. In my opinion, Waddle is a really excellent No. 2 receiver — not really the true 1B-type that his summer ADP labeled him. That’s fine, not really a knock at all, but it might speak to some of what’s happened this year.
If Week 15 was any indication, it could all be simply circumstance.
With Hill out for the first time this season, the Dolphins blew out the hapless New York Jets and Waddle dominated in the passing game. Waddle had a season-high 142 yards on nine targets. No other Dolphins player had more than 32 yards or four targets.
Waddle averaged 8.6 air yards per target, per Next Gen Stats. He owned a ridiculous 91.2% share of Tua Tagovailoa’s air yards. Waddle was the passing game on Sunday.
While Waddle has speed for days, he’s not the same level of separator against man or press coverage as Hill, who is a ridiculous route runner in addition to being the fastest man in the sport. He does nearly match Hill in the run-after-catch game. Waddle averaged 9.2 yards after the catch per reception on Sunday.
For a team that suffered a major stumble just last week and walked into this week without its best player, having the young star receiver step up in this fashion must have been a welcomed sigh of relief. Those dynasty managers who have Waddle ranked inside their top-10 long-term receivers likely experienced the same comfort.
The Bucs offense
After a crucial win over the Green Bay Packers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers now have an 81% chance to make the playoffs and a 66% chance of winning the NFC South, per the New York Times playoff simulator. That feels right at this stage.
No one coming out of the NFC South will be a true contender. All three of the Falcons (more on them in a bit), Saints and Bucs are deeply flawed teams. But among these teams, the Bucs have the most compelling offensive unit. It pairs well with a defense that invites high-scoring affairs, making for compelling games, albeit rocky ones for Tampa Bay.
Baker Mayfield is not a long-term solution for this team behind center. Still, he’s a gutsy player who is a competent distributor for the variety of playmakers on this roster. We know the type of player Mike Evans is at his best and he’s turning in a fantastic season ahead of a possible run in free agency. Evans scored his 11th touchdown of the season in Week 15. Chris Godwin has had a quiet season, taking the backseat to his future Hall of Fame teammate, but he turned in a dominant game with 155 yards. He consistently ripped apart the Packers on crossing routes and made plays with the ball in his hands.
We knew those guys could ball but the most significant development has come in the backfield.
The Bucs stuck with Rachaad White when he wasn’t running well to start the season. He’s turned his season around and has averaged more than four yards per carry in each of the last four games. He handled another 20-plus carries in Week 15 and hauled in both of his targets for 50 yards and a score. White has held down a gold-mine fantasy football role and is continuing to progress as a player.
We have to watch one of these NFC South teams in Round 1 of the NFL playoffs. All things considered, I’ll take this Bucs offense with a chance to make things interesting. That’s all we are looking for.
5 things I don’t care about
The Jaguars' theoretical upside
Perhaps I’m slow to adjust. Maybe everyone else has long since given up holding out hope for the Jaguars to reach the optimistic end of their season-long projections. With a loss to another AFC playoff team in Week 15, I’m officially closing up shop and calling it quits on hope.
The Jacksonville Jaguars offense will go down as one of the most disappointing units in the NFL this season.
Many things are going wrong with this unit. There isn’t just one thing that’s got them in this hole. The offensive line has been a broken unit all season. Forget what any metric tells you, this group absolutely cannot pass protect long enough for plays to develop downfield. Don’t look at Travis Etienne’s fantasy football ranking, this has been one of the least efficient rushing teams all season.
Brutal stat of the night: take out Lawrence's 41 rushing yards and the Jaguars are being outgained 204-41 on the ground
— John Shipley (@_John_Shipley) December 18, 2023
The receiver room has dealt with injuries all season and isn’t a consistent unit. Doug Pederson passing play-calling duties off to offensive coordinator Press Taylor was a mistake at the time and never got turned around. That may have been the most critical error and doomed the season before it began.
All that said, I’m ready to have “the conversation” about Trevor Lawrence.
He’s likely playing with some level of an injury — the Jaguars also put him in the concussion protocol following the SNF loss to the Ravens — after getting bent in half against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. However, many of the mistakes he made on Sunday were right in line with his whole season.
Lawrence commits far too many errors. The fumbles are beyond an issue at this point. It’s a back-breaking reality of his game. He often feels like he’s playing either too fast or he’s delivering passes super late which causes open windows to slam shut. Ball placement and accuracy were debilitating problems on Sunday Night Football. That’s been the case all season. He’s not a bad player but I don’t see the argument that he’s been a teammate elevator to the same degree many of the great quarterbacks in the game are.
For a team that had all the upside in the world heading into this season and checked all the boxes of an ascendant operation, this season is a massive disappointment. The AFC South divisional crown shouldn’t be in question and yet here we are. The Jaguars have no one to blame but themselves — and the blame starts all the way at the top.
Fighting over Brock Purdy’s MVP odds
Run from it. Hide from it. Brock Purdy creating distance in the MVP race comes all the same.
Purdy enjoyed another wildly productive game with 9.7 yards per attempt and four touchdowns. Especially in the context of what happened to the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott in Buffalo, this is just another resume-padding moment for Purdy. That’s true regardless of opponent.
On the topic of that resume, quarterbacks with this type of on-paper resume usually win MVP every single time, as Dalton Del Don was eager to point out last week.
Expect Purdy's odds to win the award to increase following Week 15 and you just have to avoid fighting it. Go outside. Read a book. Don’t get dragged into the muck and the mire. Remember, the odds don’t mean anything and the season is not over. We still have several weeks for the story to be finished and the true winner of this award to emerge, if you’re that adamant Purdy shouldn’t take it home.
On that note, Purdy took time to cast his vote after this game:
“I think Christian should be MVP” - Brock Purdy. I asked Purdy to make a case for Christian McCaffrey, his answer on that👇🏽plus Purdy’s thoughts on his own candidacy. pic.twitter.com/RajTiGtzzy
— Omar Ruiz (@OmarDRuiz) December 18, 2023
I can’t disagree with him. There’s no question Purdy has changed the 49ers' offense and gotten more out of it than his predecessors. He’s inarguably a darn good quarterback. However, it’s not a coincidence that the rise of Purdymania almost perfectly overlaps with Christian McCaffrey’s arrival and full integration into the offense. He is, was and has been the straw that stirs the drink.
Before you want to argue against McCaffrey’s candidacy because of the position he plays, please check your dogma at the door. He impacts the game in ways no other player with “RB” next to their name can dream of achieving. Unique is the bare minimum of describing his influence.
The problem is, this award has seemingly devolved into “quarterback on the best team.” That’s why Purdy will continue to be at the center of the discussion. He’s played so well in his own right that it’s hard to argue he shouldn’t be one of the first names mentioned as favorites. So, don’t.
Any reason to keep playing Kadarius Toney
Rarely do I advocate for someone losing their job but for the life of me, I cannot understand why the Chiefs continue to play Kadarius Toney.
His punt return is a big reason they won the Super Bowl last year. They gave up a third-round pick to get him. He’s electric when you get the ball in his hands.
That last part has been a critical issue this season.
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) December 17, 2023
Toney has been a net negative for the Chiefs far too often this season. He’s handed big plays to the opponent, he’s wiped Chiefs highlights off the board and dropped far too many perfect, routine Patrick Mahomes passes.
You can live with some of these mistakes at the wide receiver position. It happens to everyone in spurts, even some of the best in the league. The problem for Toney is two-fold. For starters, this is a long stretch of mistakes that’s haunted him throughout the course of his career. This is who he is. Secondly, he has never proven himself to be a guy who can do the simple things at the position — running good routes and getting open — to make those mistakes worth living with.
At some point, the Chiefs have to say “enough already” to whatever they theorized Toney would be for them. There aren’t any good answers behind him but he’s become a net negative at this stage and honestly, so much about his film the last two seasons showed this was coming no matter what the GM or anyone from the team tried to sell you this offseason.
Sam Howell’s fantasy season
It was downright hilarious to see Jacoby Brissett finally get some meaningful playing time this season and immediately get the ball to Terry McLaurin down the field. You almost forgot what that looked like.
It was super fun being gaslit all season with "Sam Howell leads the league in passing yards, Terry McLaurin should be producing"
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) December 17, 2023
Sam Howell’s passing production was always nothing more than empty calories. I understand why the team wanted to stick with a young quarterback but it still strikes me as odd this coaching staff never considered Brissett. While not a perfect quarterback, he’s shown to be a competent guy who can keep the ship afloat. They gave him a decent contract this offseason and seemingly never considered he could put a stopper in the drain as this season slipped away from them.
All Washington needed was a steady player like that to get the ball to its great receiver trio and let the whole operation revolve around their Pro Bowl WR1. They were so far adrift from that operation this season and Week 15 was the ultimate proof.
There was a lot on the line for this staff. Ron Rivera probably needed a miracle to save his job under new ownership but driving the team toward a top-five pick didn’t help matters. This was Eric Bienemy’s big audition to show he can run the show away from Andy Reid and put his name deep into the head coaching cycle.
Teams won’t care how good Sam Howell was in fantasy football when making those decisions. You shouldn’t care about it either.
The Falcons
Putting up seven points against the Panthers. "Embarrassing" doesn’t even do justice to the Atlanta Falcons.
This team had every chance to win the NFC South. They got a nice performance from their defense and had the talent on offense to be a dangerous unit. Now, the New York Times simulator gives them a mere 7% chance to make the postseason.
Ultimately, what did them in were the exact things everyone expected would be their demise. Both were on display in their Sunday loss to the worst team in football.
Almost no one believed Desmond Ridder would be good enough to be the unquestioned full-season starter for this team. The only folks who did happened to be the ones making that decision for the Falcons. Ridder spent another afternoon leaving plays on the field for an offense that goes out of its way to get players open and make life easy for the quarterback.
Not offering up any challenger to Ridder may have been Arthur Smith’s biggest blunder but his unwavering commitment to not feature the young stars he drafted along with Terry Fontenot is a close second. What took place with Bijan Robinson against the worst run defense in the league in Round 1 of the fantasy football playoffs was his true "masterpiece."
FINAL: Bijan Robinson + Drake London + Kyle Pitts = 13 touches, 75 scrimmage yards, 0 TDs
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) December 17, 2023
Robinson was already taking a backseat to Tyler Allgeier in Week 15 before the rookie fumbled in the second half. He never touched the ball again after that — barely even played.
If you win games, you can brush off all this as mere whining from fantasy dorks drafting in their mom’s basement. Even if that’s dumb and you’re wasting prime years of guys who should be foundational pieces, hey, those are the rules.
When you lose to the Panthers and fumble away an utterly winnable division, we get to have a real conversation about what’s happening in Atlanta.
I don’t know if the disaster that this season has become is enough to cause management to pull the plug on Smith as a head coach but it’s his third losing season on the job. At a minimum, there need to be some difficult conversations about how this team goes about getting the best out of the players it’s spending significant resources to acquire and an examination of overlooking a real quarterback answer.
Failing at those jobs is textbook for how to build a losing culture.