Five things I care about

Zay Flowers’ key traits

The ability to beat man coverage and create something out of nothing. Those are key traits in Zay Flowers’ arsenal as a wide receiver.

Zay Flowers

WR - BAL - #4

Week 12 v. LAC

5

Rec

25

Yds

1

TD

8

Targets

How many times have you been able to assign those tags to a Ravens wide receiver in Lamar Jackson’s time as the starter? Not often; maybe a brief moment in time for Rashod Bateman to start last season before injuries struck, but that fleeting instant is just about it. Flowers showed off both in a major way in Week 12.

Flowers’ first touchdown came on an in-route at the goal line where he simply took the Chargers cornerback Deane Leonard to the woodshed in coverage. Perhaps Leonard was expecting inside help from someone who bit on the play-action fake but he was utterly overwhelmed by Flowers’ speed.

Flowers has been showing off his ability to beat man coverage in the intermediate area all season. The ball just hasn’t always come his way. With Mark Andrews now out of the mix for a long stretch, more of those plays will go to Flowers. He checked in with a team-high eight targets in Week 12. That was a huge development in his rest-of-season fantasy football outlook. The upside in his range of outcomes is still a bit underrated throughout the industry.

His second key trait and one that should be apparent to everyone who watches him helped ice the game. Flowers ranks quite high on the “moves different” scale. Next Gen Stats helped quantify how special he is in the open field in what was essentially a game-ending touchdown run:

Lamar Jackson has rarely had another player with him who is capable of flipping the field and breaking the math. Flowers is that player. He moves like the gadget players who people get obsessed with at the receiver position. Still, I have much more confidence in his ability to run routes and beat man coverage than any of the other names on the long list of overhyped space players.

The Ravens still win games ugly and lean on their outstanding defense. That stop unit is a needle-moving group capable of being this team's identity. We’ve seen elements of that version of the Ravens before. But we haven’t seen them littered with secondary explosive players who possess the difference-making ability to file in behind Lamar Jackson. Zay Flowers reminded us in Week 12 that this iteration of the Ravens has players like that, so this team’s ceiling is much higher than past renditions.

The Eagles' will to win

There is an unquantifiable portion to football. Try to deny it and throw stats around all you want, some teams just have that will to win. The Eagles embrace and thrive in that mindset because, from their head coach on down to the bottom of the roster, everyone believes they will win.

The Eagles are littered with players who have played in big games. Whether it's grizzled NFL veterans who were around for their last Super Bowl win or younger guys like Jalen Hurts or DeVonta Smith who were recent collegiate stars, they have the experience. They know what this looks like. That’s why it works.

The Eagles also get to have this mindset because they have great players. Their guys are more than likely better than your guys. And best of all? Those are the players they get the ball to with relentless abandon.

Jalen Hurts carried the ball 14 times and threw it 31 times. D’Andre Swift touched the ball 15 times, the other running backs combined for six. DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown had eight and nine targets, respectively, while no other pass catchers cleared three.

All of that is a fantasy football manager’s dream but it’s also a key to the Eagles’ success and their belief that they will win close games. It breeds confidence when the best players know they’re featured. The guys are selfless when the ball doesn’t come their way on a couple of plays because they know A) the guy who got the touch probably deserves it and B) it’s probably coming back their way very soon.

Football is simple sometimes. The team that has the better players is probably the team that’s going to win the game. The Eagles have better players than just about everyone else and that’s why they both win these games and have complete confidence in the result before it happens.

Throw out any quantifiable result you want to try and denigrate this 10-1 team, but this one matters more.

Jaguars overcome low moments

There were several legitimately low moments for the Jaguars in Week 12.

Calvin Ridley couldn’t come down with a 50-yard touchdown on a go route in the first half. The run game was stuck in the mud. The defense couldn’t close out a handful of potential sacks against C.J. Stroud. They were funneling targets to Evan Engram, which was quite a good and bad journey.

Plenty of things could have dragged Jacksonville down in this game. But they escaped with a win thanks to one of the best games we’ve seen from Trevor Lawrence.

This isn’t to say Lawrence was without warts in Week 12. You can nitpick a couple of his throws on one second-half drive where he was a little too late, including on what would have been a gimme touchdown to Engram. At the same time, you almost have to excuse his interception altogether considering the refs missed a blatant hold on Engram that prevented him from being where Lawrence expected him.

Frankly, the officiating was questionable on both sides all afternoon.

Ridley was blanked in the first half but came alive in the second. Jacksonville used Ridley from some condensed alignments for the second straight game and threw him some in-breaking routes.

These were some of the things those of us on the outside were holding their coaching staff to the fire over a few weeks ago. It was clear these were missing pieces; huge reasons why they weren’t getting the most out of their top wide receiver and why he’d become a volatile player to trust in fantasy football. The coaching staff made the necessary adjustments mid-stream, bringing a new ceiling to this passing game. Ridley was meant to be the guy who elevated what was a good passing game last season. With some help from the coaching staff, he’s been allowed to be that guy over the last two weeks.

Throughout the first half of the season, the Jaguars were winning games but felt like they were leaving meat on the bone. They’re now ripping that meat off in large chunks, and just in time, too. It was a big factor in why they defeated the surging Texans and kept their grip atop the AFC South.

The Steelers' offense breaks out … for them

I’m sure you’ve heard the stat by now; the Steelers never accumulated more than 400 yards of offense under Matt Canada’s watch. They did it in one game after firing him coming out of Week 11.

Canada’s exit isn’t going to fix everything — we’re talking about a team that scored 16 points in Week 12, after all. However, it was clear years ago that his offensive design was simply not up to snuff for the NFL.

There was at least one significant departure from the Canada offense in Week 12.

Pat Freiermuth was the engine of the passing game against the Bengals. He made several big plays up the seams and presented a reliable target over the middle for Kenny Pickett.

Canada’s offense was nearly allergic to throws over the middle. That is foolish for a number of reasons, especially since those throws are some of the most efficient available in today’s game. Freiermuth being deployed to perfection and giving Pickett those layups and chunk plays was critical.

There have been few big plays over the middle the last three years in Pittsburgh unless it was a miracle play by a receiver on a catch and run. Even Diontae Johnson had a would-be touchdown on a deep in-route that was incorrectly called on the field and inexplicably not challenged by Mike Tomlin.

You can still take sideline shots. You should rip those throws when you have a weapon like George Pickens on vertical routes:

But those go-routes and hitches just can’t be the basis of your passing game in the NFL. They were under Canada, so that offense was and has been dead on arrival.

The Steelers aren’t perfect and are still a tough offense to trust. However, Canada’s offense was a net negative and the further they get away from that, the better everyone involved will be.

Chris Olave

It’s a shame Chris Olave left the game with a concussion early in the third quarter because he was on his way to a signature performance. The second-year wideout amassed 100 yards in the first half, dominating the game despite his quarterback throwing a back-breaking red-zone pick-six.

Chris Olave

IR

WR - NO - #12

Week 12 v. ATL

7

Rec

114

Yds

0

TD

9

Targets

The Saints let the game slip away after Olave’s exit. With the way he was playing, you have to wonder if his presence may have made a difference. For now, it provides an excellent time to reflect.

There’s no doubt Olave has had a weird season. His chemistry with Derek Carr has been a consistent source of conversation. Week 12 was a reminder of why that shouldn’t be an issue. These two were consistently on the same page against Atlanta. Carr was drilling high-degree-of-difficulty out-breaking throws in the intermediate and deep areas to Olave. He hit those plays on the regular with Davante Adams last year, but it hasn’t always been there with his Saints' running mate. We finally saw it for one glorious half.

However, Carr hasn’t been the only one at fault for the letdown season. I don’t think Olave has played poorly this year but he’s made mistakes, not run his routes all the way through and left plays on the field. Basically, he’s been a top-20 receiver in the NFL when I think he has the potential to be a top-10 player at the position.

That’s what made Week 12 so great. You saw that potential in Olave and Carr played in a fashion that allowed it to shine through. Sadly, right in theme with the Saints season, it didn’t go from start to finish — it didn’t come to full fruition.

Five things I don't care about

Keenan Allen’s catches

Let me be clear: Keenan Allen is one of the best receivers of this era and is having a truly outstanding season, perhaps the best of his career at 31 years old. So I care about every target, every play and every moment he gets to show what a fantastic player he is.

Keenan Allen

WR - CHI - #13

Week 12 v. BAL

14

Rec

106

Yds

0

TD

16

Targets

My problem is the lack of noise from anyone else in the Chargers' pass-catching corps, which makes Allen’s production almost a moot point. You know he’s going to get his but they cannot trust anyone else to make plays when Allen is taken away.

By the end of the game, Allen had collected a target on a whopping 36.4% of Justin Herbert’s throws. Perhaps even more damning, he was responsible for 48% of Herbert's completions and 49% of his yards. Gerald Everett and Austin Ekeler picked up the rest of the meaningless scraps while none of the wide receivers did anything of note. Quentin Johnston was in the middle of another ghostly performance prior to leaving the game with an injury. It also appears the coaching staff made the choice to bench him the rest of the game, not the medical staff, for whatever that’s worth. Mining for sleepers on this team is akin to pulling rotted roots from a long-dead garden.

The Chargers used to be a dynamic watch, even if they were due for multiple maddening finishes per season. Well, the latter element is still right in place with this team. You knew a frustrating finish was on the menu when you saw them in the Sunday Night Football slot. The problem now is this truly one-dimensional — as in, only one quarterback-to-receiver connection — offense is nothing short of a slog to watch. There is nothing joyous about this Chargers squad, only sadness, frustration and the folly of faux hope.

The season is all but over for this poorly constructed roster. We’ll be on to the next phase of Justin Herbert’s career. Here’s to hoping he has some other dimension to rely on beyond the 2024 version of Keenan Allen.

The Bills’ playoff chances

Buffalo seems to find new ways to rip its fans’ hearts out on a weekly basis. Some of its losses have been excruciating, from its overtime loss in Week 1 to the Jets on a punt return to the 12 men on the field against the Broncos and so much in between. It has been a nightmare.

Week 12 was just another chapter in the Greek tragedy.

The Bills had a lead in multiple key portions of this game. An interception here, a drop there, a near miss or two all brought the Eagles back into the game. And still, the Bills should have had Gabe Davis streaking into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown in overtime, but he read the situation wrong and took the route outside despite Josh Allen being under pressure from a cover-zero look. So the pass fell to the ground, Buffalo kicked the field goal and never saw the ball again as Jalen Hurts took it into the end zone about three minutes of game time later.

Just another brutal loss. Add it to the list, as the Bills' playoff chances dwindle to a light whisper.

As we stand today, the Bills are the 10th seed in the AFC playoff picture. The New York Times playoff predictor gives them a 15% chance to make it in.

There’s a part of me that doesn’t want to give up on this team. A group with Josh Allen that can go toe to toe with a good team like the Eagles is abundantly interesting. They have a chance to go on a run, probably more so than some of the teams with better odds of making it in the AFC.

Yet, with a daunting schedule coming out of their bye with little to no “gimme” games and so many missed opportunities on their resume, it’s impossible to trust them. Right now I just don’t care about even thinking about them in the playoffs. Something has felt off about this group all season, even if some of it is due to injuries and factors beyond their control.

The Joe Burrow injury made it official that 2023 was not the Bengals’ year, a feeling that, to me, had hung over this team since Week 1. I can’t help but wonder if this particular AFC contender is in the same bucket, no matter the odds.

“Injuries allowed Rashee Rice to break out!”

Mecole Hardman (IR) and Kadarius Toney missed Week 12. Rashee Rice played a season-high 75% of the snaps and turned in the best game of his young career. Those two things are not mutually exclusive — or at least, they shouldn’t be.

Rashee Rice

IR

WR - KC - #4

Week 12 v. LV

8

Rec

107

Yds

1

TD

10

Targets

While Rice is a much better player than both, he has played a similar role to those of Hardman and Toney. Those guys are more pure gadget receivers, but Rice has operated from the slot and won on screens and slants/crossing routes over the middle. That was where most of his big plays occurred on Sunday.

We got at least two more 15-plus-air-yard receptions from Rice on top of the YAC work. The more he shows, the better. It’s clear that the coaching staff wants to see more of him beyond what they already know he excels at. But it’s time to take the limits off.

He should be a 75% snap player every single week. Toney and Hardman are contributors but they aren’t weekly needle-movers by any stretch. Their absence shouldn’t be the reason Rice breaks out.

C.J. Stroud’s rookie mistakes

Two thoughts occurred to me late as the Texans were driving to try and win or tie the game in the fourth quarter.

First, I had this game on my iso TV. There was a moment where the “Wow, this is the Texans we’re talking about here” crossed my mind as I watched C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins hook up for a huge reception. It’s just a stunning turnaround from where this franchise was 12 months ago. They were beyond irrelevant the last two years; now, they’re must-see TV in a consequential divisional matchup late in the season. That’s how much of a transformative effect Stroud and DeMeco Ryans have had on this team.

My second thought was that we’ve seen some rookie mistakes and plays left on the field from Stroud. That was true late in the game. They have been rare occurrences in his inaugural NFL campaign, but they popped up in this one. Maybe some of those plays would have made the difference in winning this game, we’ll never know — even if I would have kept the game in Stroud’s hands rather than trying the long field goal at the end. It’s hard to care about those.

C.J. Stroud

QB - HOU - #7

Week 12 v. JAX

72.2

Comp Pct

304

Yds

2

TD

0

Int

116

QBRat

This was one of those games where I was so dialed in that I didn't look at the box score until it was over. So it was pretty hilarious when, despite acknowledging those rookie mistakes and misses, I opened up to see the end-of-game results for Stroud included a 72% completion rate, 8.4 yards per pass attempt, 351 yards of total offense and three touchdowns.

That’s what C.J. Stroud does, even when he’s off on a few plays. Everything is so good about this Texans team right now. Collins and Tank Dell are on fire as a beautiful duo to pair with Stroud for the long haul. The defense is flying around and puts opponents in chaos.

This is just the beginning of the Stroud vs. Lawrence wars that will produce classics for years to come.

Non-front-line Falcons players

Drake London and Bijan Robinson’s talents were on full display in Week 12. They are the two front-line players in the Falcons' offense; everyone else is a supporting actor. That certainly includes the quarterback.

Drake London

ATL - WR

Bijan Robinson

ATL - RB

Week v. NO

5

Rec

3

91

Yds

32

0

TD

1

7

Tgt

6

Desmond Ridder committed a couple of turnovers, which will undoubtedly frustrate head coach Arthur Smith and the fan base. This is just who Ridder is, and that’s not changing. He just needs to make a few plays and get the ball to his front-line players to help make the turnovers worth living through. He did just enough in Week 12.

Coming out of the bye, Robinson took a commanding lead in the backfield work, garnering 22 opportunities to 10 for Tyler Allgeier and eight for Cordarrelle Patterson. That’s totally fine. Those guys are good players who can give you positive results on their touches. They just can’t be at the expense of Robinson.

Robinson and London combined for a whopping 62% target share. The overall volume wasn’t high because they ran the ball well but that’s where the share needs to be going forward. Robinson hauled in a dynamic fourth-quarter touchdown as a receiver; he’s quite dangerous in that regard. London was also electric against New Orleans. He looked like a man amongst boys multiple times, getting wide open and making difficult catches. London has all the skills and traits of a No. 1 receiver and can enjoy that level of impact when he’s featured.

The other players filled their roles as supporting actors and the stars shined for the Falcons' offense. It won’t ever be pretty but that’s the way this unit thrives the rest of the season.