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Vegas leans toward Hamlin, Larson yet again, but in the NASCAR return to the Indy oval, should you?

It's been a while, four years in fact, since the NASCAR Cup Series raced on the Indianapolis oval.

Instead, since 2021, the Brickyard has been contested on the Indy road course.

But that changes this week for the first time in the Gen-7 car era and it's hard to know what, or who, to expect.

So when in doubt, Vegas decided to lean on the usual suspects, putting Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson atop the initial odds boards.

But are they the smart plays with your money this week? Not necesssarily.

Allow us to explain as we unveil our favorite picks for this weekend:

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - SEPTEMBER 08: Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Mobil 1 Ford, leads during the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on September 08, 2019 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - SEPTEMBER 08: Kevin Harvick, driver of the #4 Mobil 1 Ford, leads during the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on September 08, 2019 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

NASCAR odds this weekend

  • +375: Denny Hamlin

  • +600: Kyle Larson

  • +750: Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney

  • +1000: Chase Elliott

  • +1100: Tyler Reddick, William Byron

  • +1200: Christopher Bell

  • +1300: Martin Truex Jr.

  • +1400: Joey Logano

  • +1600: Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher

  • +3000: Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman

  • +4000: Josh Berry

  • +6000: Erik Jones, Austin Cindric

  • +7500: Daniel Suarez

  • +10000: Michael McDowell, Noah Gragson

  • +15000: Carson Hocevar, AJ Allmendinger, Todd Gilliland

  • +20000: Chase Briscoe

  • +25000: Zane Smith, Austin Dillon, John Hunter Nemechek, Justin Haley

  • +50000: Jimmie Johnson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ty Dillon, Corey LaJoie, Ryan Preece

  • +100000: Daniel Hemric, Harrison Burton

  • +250000: B.J. McLeod, Cody Ware

Best bet

Ryan: Going to Group 3 this week and that's where we find Joey Logano at +250 against Martin Truex Jr. (+240), Chris Buescher (+260) and Ty Gibbs (+275). Truex and Gibbs may have more initial raw speed but I don't trust either of them to bring it home. I expect an Indianapolis oval race to look a lot like last week's at Pocono and Logano finished fifth there, ahead of these other three.

Watch out for Joey Logano and Team Penske this weekend.
Watch out for Joey Logano and Team Penske this weekend.

Ken: Looking at the team odds, Gibbs (+150) and Hendrick (+200) are 1-2, but sitting there third is Roger Penske's three-headed Ford at +450. We'll explain this a little more down below, but for the odds, give me Team Penske for the win.

Top 10

Ryan: There's not a whole lot of history on the oval, and none in the Gen-7 era, but Bubba Wallace did have two straight top 10s there and he's plus odds (+125) to do it this week. I'll take that.

Ken: Give me Austin Cindric at +220. Noticing a trend yet?

Top 5

Ryan: In his last eight races, Reddick has seven top-eight finishes with four of fourth or better and two sixths. Point is, he's in or hovering near the top five every week, yet he's +145 to finish there at Indy.

Tyler Reddick has been red hot lately.
Tyler Reddick has been red hot lately.

Ken: Kyle Busch is +425. Would've seemed absurd a few months ago. Might be absurd now. But there is a lot of elbow room at Indy, so less chance of Kyle getting taken out by some ham-handed mid-packer. Plus, eventually, there has to be a Sunday where things don't go off he rails. I'll take him at that number. And probably lose, but hey, it's called gambling.

Driver to fade

Ryan: Brad Keselowski is third on the board, I'm guessing because he's more experienced than most here, and while I don't think he'll be a complete bust on Sunday, that's a little high for my liking. There are quite a few others below him I like better for the win this week.

Ken: Earlier in the week I was high on Kyle Larson because he has a score to settle with the Brickyard after his Indy 500 misstep. But racetracks don't have feelings and can't be bullied. Also, Little Kyle hasn't even led a lap in a month of Sundays, doesn't have a good record on the historic oval, yet he's second on the odds board behind Hamlin. As Delbert McClinton would say, "Thanks but no thanks, baby, I've already got more trouble than I need."

Winner

Ryan: Heck with it. Bubba Wallace at +3000. This is a good track for him, or at least it was, and boy does he need a win.

LEBANON, TENNESSEE - JUNE 29: Bubba Wallace, driver of the #23 Columbia Sportswear Company Toyota, enters his car during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway on June 29, 2024 in Lebanon, Tennessee. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
LEBANON, TENNESSEE - JUNE 29: Bubba Wallace, driver of the #23 Columbia Sportswear Company Toyota, enters his car during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway on June 29, 2024 in Lebanon, Tennessee. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

Ken: Back to the opening theme. Roger Penske owns Indy. No, seriously, he literally owns it. And last week, his IndyCar teams swept an Iowa doubleheader while his NASCAR team was winning at Pocono. I smell a fuel-mileage race, which means Joey Logano wins it.

NASCAR DFS lineup

  • Denny Hamlin ($10,500): Needs this crown jewel for the resume. Had a great car last week, no reason to think he won't this week.

  • Tyler Reddick ($8,800): Has been the best and most consistent driver in the sport the last six weeks. He's here until further notice.

  • Joey Logano ($8,600): There are only a handful of drivers with significant experience on the Indianapolis oval and Logano is certainly one of them. His mark of 10.8 is the best average finish of anyone with more than one start here.

  • Bubba Wallace ($7,800): Good run last week and this is a similarly good track for Bubba.

  • Daniel Suarez ($7,400): Among drivers with three or more starts, Suarez is fifth in average finish at Indy, averaging a 14th-place showing.

  • Carson Hocevar ($6,800): Our automatic 15th-20th-place plug and play. Can't beat it for the price.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds, best bets, picks, and DFS lineup advice for Indianapolis