Tourney Bracket 101: Tips on how to make your picks with $1M on the line
The passion, the pageantry, the MADNESS — there is no greater sporting event in the known universe than the NCAA Tournament.
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So, if you’re an inexperienced bracketeer with hopes of dominating the office pool and securing your chance of becoming a millionaire, hit the books. To get you started, below is an educational primer detailing basic terminology and tips that encompass the Big Dance.
Lace up your PG 2.5 signature shoes, and tightly, gamer.
It’s time to boost your bank account.
BRACKET BASICS
To get familiar with the lingo, below are common words and phrases associated with the greatest sports event on the planet. Consider each bold-faced text. Have a highlighter handy.
What is the NCAA basketball tournament?
The tournament, nicknamed the “Big Dance,” is a single-elimination postseason playoff between 68 Division I college teams. Games are played round-by-round over a three-week period until a single champion is crowned. The opening slate, dubbed the “First Four” (code for, “You probably would’ve played more games in the NIT”), features four teams, two from high-major conferences and two from mid-majors.
The winners of those games are slotted into positions ranging from the No. 9 to No. 16 seeds, establishing the traditional 64-team bracket (Note: First Four games will NOT be scored in Yahoo’s Tourney Pick ‘Em game). From that point on, each winner advances onto the following round, whittling the field down. After Round 1, 32 teams remain; Round 2, 16 teams (dubbed the Sweet 16); Round 3, eight teams (Elite Eight); Round 4, four teams (Final Four) and Round 5, two teams (national championship).
What is March Madness?
This phrase — coined by H.V. Porter, an official with the Illinois High School Association in the late 1930s — references the excitement, passion and general zaniness the tournament creates. Upsets, buzzer beaters and raucous celebrations typically ensue. Submit to the “Madness” and you’ll surely relish every riveting second.
How is the tournament field selected?
The process of selecting who plays in the tournament is arbitrary and explicit. Teams earn berths two ways: 1) By winning their conference tournament, an automatic berth (32 teams punch tickets this way); 2) By being handpicked by the committee, an at-large bid (36 teams). How the latter is determined is very complex. Think of a lengthy crossword puzzle without an answer key. Committee members scrutinize schools based on a variety of factors: NET ranking (NCAA Evaluation Tool), strength of schedule, predictive/results-based analytics, road/neutral court wins, Quadrant 1 wins (Home W over a NET team ranked 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Road 1-75), overall level of play, full body of work, etc. (See a team sheet example here.)
Other extreme factors such as major injuries to notable players and coaching absences are also taken into account. Suffice it to say, it’s a complicated process. For more info, feel free to thumb through the thoroughly confusing NCAA’s principles and procedures manual. Calculus will seem like a walk in the park.
What is ‘seeding?’
A seed is the position a team stands within a bracket. It has nothing to do with horticulture. Each region (four in total) houses teams ranked 1 (perceived best) to 16 (worst). In Round 1, the highest seeded teams are matched up with the lowest seeded team possible (e.g. 1 plays 16, 2-15, 3-14, 4-13, etc.). As the Committee puts it, the top priority for seeding is “to achieve reasonable competitive balance in each region of the bracket.” Generally speaking, teams from smaller conferences, often called mid-majors, are ranked lower than teams from high-major or power conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, etc.).
How do I ‘HULK SMASH!’ the competition with my bracket
Signing up and participating in the Best Bracket Millionaire is easier than throwing a pepperoni pie into the oven. First, sign into your Yahoo account. If you don’t have one, start here. Second, create a free entry within the game. Be creative. Give it a flashy, playful name (e.g. Forever Trae Young). Third, select the winner of each game round-by-round by simply clicking on the school’s name. Remember, First Four games are not counted. That’s it.
COMMON STRATEGIES THAT COULD NET YOU $1 MILLION
Now that you’ve graduated from dance school, it’s time to smack down the competition. Below are five tips chock-full of pertinent info that could help you buy a seemingly endless supply of ramen noodles.
1. Top dogs don’t necessarily pack the most vicious bite - Since the tournament expanded to its current capacity in 1985, just over 59 percent of No. 1 seeds have advanced onto the Final Four. During that span, only once have all four top seeds made it to the Mecca of college hoops (2008). Yes, elite squads have more favorable odds of making a deep run. This year, Duke owns the best odds (+205), per Vegas, to win the whole enchilada. But sage players aim for variety when penciling in teams on bracket lines.
It’s important to zig when others zag. Typically, the Final Four features two No. 1s and two lower seeded teams from the Nos. 2-4 range. Last season’s Final Four, however, was rather unusual. It featured two No. 1s (Villanova and Kansas), a No. 3 (Michigan) and, for the fourth time in history, a No. 11 (Loyola-Chicago).
2. Don’t fall in love with too many Cinderellas - Selecting upsets is a bragging exercise. Everyone wants to boast to their buddies they had the courage to pick a team from the Ivy League. But becoming enamored with the unheralded can bloody your bracket in a hurry. Shocker specials do and will occur, but not nearly as often as many would lead you to believe. Approximately 17-18 percent of top seeds per season are bounced early. That trend, though, is rising.
Over the past six years, right around 21 percent of big boys (6 seeds or better) have gone home crying in Round 1. Last season, due to knockouts levied by Marshall, Buffalo, Loyola-Chicago, Syracuse and, unforgettably, UMBC, the upset bug bit at a 20.8 percent clip. Obviously, don’t pick by the book. Be mindful that underdogs only occasionally topple regional favorites, especially over multiple rounds.
Here’s a breakdown of Round 1 winning percentages for teams seeded No. 11 or lower since 1985 (Note: 11s and 12s are the most likely to wear a glass slipper): No. 11s (51-85, 37.5%); No. 12s (47-89, 34.5%); No. 13s (28-108, 20.6%); No. 14s (21-115, 15.4%); No. 15s (8-128, 5.9%); No. 16s (1-135, 0.007%).
3. When you do court Cinderella, think offense - Defense may win championships, but when it comes to the NCAA tournament, offense most often defines upsets. Among teams seeded No. 11 or lower over the past 12 years, roughly 55 percent of schools that wore a glass slipper had an offensive efficiency rank of No. 75 or better. Consult KenPom.com to see what little guys qualify before deciding.
4. Hit the books - Upon graduation you may have vowed never to enter another classroom, physically or virtually, again. But research favors the champion. In this age of endless convenience, accessing information is just one click away. Immersing in columns/videos on Yahoo Sports is the first step for success. For the advanced, numbers-rich sites like Kenpom.com, KPISports.net and TeamRankings.com are invaluable resources. Pools can be won accidentally, but increasing your knowledge on the subject matter only increases your chances.
5. Team balance wins championships … most of the time - If you comb through the NCAA tournament annals, one key predictive metric stands out among Final Four participants: A small differential between offensive and defensive efficiency. Well-rounded teams that force turnovers, guard the glass, generally frustrate opponents and score the basketball consistently are, predictably, difficult to eliminate.
According to the ridiculously addictive KenPom.com, the average efficiency differential (offense-to-defense) of championship teams from 2002-2018 was -1.4. The average offensive efficiency rank was 7.24, defensive was 8.64. It’s also important to note, the last 11 title winners finished top-20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Of this year’s batch of single-digit seeds ranked inside the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency, Virginia, Gonzaga, Duke, Michigan St., Kentucky, North Carolina and Maryland have the tightest separation in those categories.
