Tight End Shuffle Up: Chris Herndon looks like a fantasy draft steal
Before the salaries, we add the boiler-plate disclaimer section:
A few caveats upfront. The salaries are unscientific in nature, merely used as a way to compare players within their position. I do not compare salaries outside of position — the salary of a tight end is only meant to be considered within his positional class. I am generally far less expectant with injury-returning players, so don’t be surprised when I like them less than you do.
Every Shuffle Up is done from scratch. I think it’s counterproductive to justify an old, dated list.
Previously, we shuffled the quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers.
Players with the same salary are considered even. Assume a half-point PPR scoring system.
The TL;DR Takeaway for Tight Ends: You can do well at almost any salary. I believe in Tyler Higbee more than most, Gronk less than most. Do a deep studying of the guys outside the Top 10; there are tons of young, emerging, breakout candidates.
The Big Tickets
$33 Travis Kelce
$33 George Kittle
$28 Mark Andrews
$27 Zach Ertz
If I make a plan for a vanity tight end, I’m more likely to go modified rip with Andrews, whose salary is a little cheaper than the two undeniable gods listed above him. Every so often you’ll see Andrews roaming uncovered down a seam or in a secondary, wondering how he got so wide open. That’s OC Greg Roman at work, and the dual-threat wizardry of Lamar Jackson certainly doesn’t hurt. Andrews had a modest snap share and unreal efficiency metrics last year; even if the latter goes down, a snap bump should cover the difference. A highly recommended target.
Plausible upside, but they’re not cheap
$21 Darren Waller
$18 Tyler Higbee
$18 Jared Cook
$16 Evan Engram
$16 Hunter Henry
Although Waller is technically the TE5 on this list, I hope his salary is low enough that you understand my reluctance with him. I don’t trust Jon Gruden or Derek Carr, and Oakland has an overflowing group of pass-catchers. Waller likely is due a touchdown bump after an unlucky year there, but Carr has never struck me as any kind of king-maker . . . I’ve talked up Higbee plenty this summer; there’s signature significance to his late-season run, and I trust Sean McVay is not putting the genie back in the bottle. A shift in the Rams offense was signaled when they traded Brandin Cooks, setting a curious league record (dead money absorbed through a trade) in the process . . . Cook’s a tricky guy to evaluate when you consider the upside-down shape of his career; his two best seasons came in his 30s. I wish his quarterback were a little younger, but the continuity of the Saints is enough to allay fears and keep Cook in my reasonable draft plans . . . Engram’s been a high-attrition player through his career, and he’s really more of a jumbo wideout than a true tight end. That last trait could be spun as a feature, not a “but,” but the Giants also have a crowded group of talented wideouts . . . Henry had a special connection with the departed Philip Rivers. Now he hooks up with Tyrod Taylor, who doesn’t have a history of elevating his tight ends.
Choose your own mid-round adventure
$13 Mike Gesicki
$11 Rob Gronkowski
$11 Hayden Hurst
$11 Austin Hooper
$10 Noah Fant
$10 Chris Herndon
$9 Jonnu Smith
$9 T.J. Hockenson
You might be concerned about Norv Turner’s modest history with tight ends, but Gesicki could turn into a de-facto wideout as the Dolphins deal with an injury and opt-out-depleted depth chart. And Gesicki’s elite athleticism was on full display during his strong finish in 2019 . . . Fading Gronkowski comes with a tinge of sadness, but he hasn’t seen a full season since 2011, and obviously he didn’t play at all last year. The Bucs have plenty on the flanks; they’ll probably let Gronkowski focus on blocking and goal-line work. He’ll need a healthy touchdown season to return his likely ADP, but that’s no sure thing. He only had three spikes in 2018. Most of the time, I will be reluctant to buy into a 30-something player heading into a reboot season . . . I understand all the Adam Gase angst and I’ve written a few words on that, too. But Sam Darnold still shows plenty of promise, and he’s got all sorts of room for improvement — heck, he’s younger than Joe Burrow. And the Jets offense turned journeyman Ryan Griffin into a fantasy staple late last year. Nothing fell right for Herndon in his second year — some of it his own fault — but every upside piece we wrote about him last year still applies now. The ADP has been appealing. Go get him . . . Fant is going to be a Pro Bowler someday, but Denver’s usage tree looks crowded and no one knows if they solved their quarterback problem. I might be a year late on him, but you can’t overlook the surroundings . . . Smith’s improvement has been gradual, but the Titans are weak at receiver after A.J. Brown, which expands opportunity. You can talk yourself into a fourth-year breakout here; Delanie Walker is gone, and OC Arthur Smith looks like a rising star.
Plausible upside, but might need a break
$8 Dallas Goedert
$8 Blake Jarwin
$6 Eric Ebron
$5 Jack Doyle
$4 Ian Thomas
$4 Irv Smith
I feel like Smith could be a 2021 breakout, but maybe the cycle will come a year ahead of time. The Vikings will give him every opportunity to show he’s more hybrid wideout than true tight end . . . I would be more interested in Thomas if not for the three dynamic pass catchers (McCaffrey, Moore, Samuel) already on the roster. Carolina looks like a carnival team for 2020; a young and lousy defense will probably force a lot of second-half passing volume on the offense.
Bargain Bin
$3 Greg Olsen
$3 Dawson Knox
$3 O.J. Howard
$2 Jace Sternberger
$2 Jimmy Graham
$2 Tyler Eifert
$1 Kyle Rudolph
$1 Will Dissly
$1 Gerald Everett
$1 David Njoku
$1 Vance McDonald
$1 Cameron Brate
$1 Darren Fells
$1 C.J. Uzomah
$0 Devin Asiasi
$0 Cole Kmet
$0 Dan Arnold
$0 Jason Witten