Throwing Darts: NFL picks against the spread for Week 4
It's been a rocky start to the Darts Season for 2023. We ran 6-8-1 in the opening three weeks, then opened Week 4 with some Luke Musgrave promotion (unfortunately, he would suffer a mid-game concussion on TNF) and a Packers ticket (loss).
So it goes. This is the capper life we have chosen. It's a long season.
Here are the remaining four Darts for Week 4. Let's see what we can cobble together. If you're looking for the historical records and pick logs from this column, please click here.
Dolphins +3 at Bills
One angle I forgot to punch last week was the "Europe looming" angle — teams often don't have their full attention on the week at hand when the out-of-routine trip to Europe is waiting the following week. Both Atlanta and Jacksonville gave a stinker performance in Week 3.
Obviously Buffalo is never looking past Miami after what's happened through three weeks — this is the game of the month, perhaps the game of the year — but even if both teams play close to their theoretical means, I like starting with the three points.
Titans +2.5 vs. Bengals
I get it, why would anyone want to punch a Titans ticket after they were swamped by the Cleveland defense last week (94 total yards, six first downs)? But one of my reliable fantasy angles is to take a well-coached team after they're embarrassed, also taking heart in the fact that outlier performances rarely repeat — everything tends to whirlpool back to the middle in short order. And Cincinnati still has problems of its own; we can all see Joe Burrow isn't healthy yet. Put your trust in Mike Vrabel.
Cowboys -6.5 vs. Patriots
New England is all defense, no offense right now, and that is a bad mix against a Dallas team with an implied total of around 25 points. A strong team off an embarrassing upset loss is generally a good play the following week, especially when they're still a decided favorite. I don't blame anyone who prefers to push Dallas into some teaser legs, but I'm fine laying the points as well.
Tell me one thing, anything, you like about this New England offense. I'll wait.
Panthers +4.5 vs. Vikings
Carolina is a little pluckier with Andy Dalton under center (Bryce Young could return though), and the Vikings haven't earned the right to spot this type of number on the road to anyone, even the winless Panthers. This game should be in the balance for three hours; start with the generous points.
Last Week: 1-3-1
This Week: 0-1
