The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Will the Jake Browning magic continue?
A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.
James Cook’s 45% snap rate over the last month is a lie
Cook hasn’t seen higher than a 46% snap rate during any of the three games since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, but the move has been a big help to his fantasy value. Cook has averaged 114.3 yards from scrimmage, 19.7 opportunities and the sixth-most RB fantasy points over that span. He still doesn’t have a role at the goal line, but Cook’s 31% target per route run rate with Brady is elite.
Cook gets two of the league’s toughest run defenses (Dallas in Week 15 and New England in Week 17) in between a favorable one (@LAC) during the fantasy playoffs, but his involvement as a receiver will help. Cook can be a top-12 fantasy RB down the stretch despite limited snaps (and GL work) while getting 20 opportunities per game on a top-five offense.
Jake Browning being fantasy’s QB4 over the last two weeks is a lie
Browning threw 91 touchdown passes as a senior in high school and deserves credit for winning back-to-back games, but his fantasy production has been a mirage. He’s benefitted from Joe Mixon getting stopped at the 1-yard line three times over the last two weeks, with the QB punching in two scores at the goal line. Moreover, Browning somehow already has the most passing yards on backfield screens among all quarterbacks this season, as he owes Chase Brown for last week’s big play. Browning’s air yards per attempt would rank last in the league by a mile if he qualified.
Browning also faced a couple of highly favorable matchups (Jax & Ind) over the last two weeks, and his schedule takes a hard turn during the fantasy playoffs. The Bengals get an incredibly stingy Minnesota D this week before traveling for road games against two defenses (Pit & KC) that rank top-12 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The Vikings have allowed just one opponent to hit their implied team total over their last 10 games and have averaged the sixth-fewest combined plays since losing Kirk Cousins.
Browning has proven to be an above-average backup who won’t sink the Bengals’ offense, but his run as a fantasy starter ends during the playoffs.
The Bears allowing the 12th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks is a lie
The Bears were ceding the eighth-most fantasy points to QBs before shutting out Detroit in the second half last week, and their ranking should continue to improve. Chicago has been a top-five defense in the league since trading for Montez Sweat, allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game (180.6).
Da Bears had allowed the third-most passing ypg (262.3) over the season's first eight weeks before Sweat arrived. Chicago leads the NFL in takeaways (11) since Week 11 despite having a bye, recording more than they had totaled (10) before the trade. No quarterback has reached 17 fantasy points against Chicago since Week 8.
The Bears get home matchups against the Cardinals and Falcons during fantasy championship weeks. Kyler Murray has struggled passing since returning from knee surgery, while Desmond Ridder has taken 20 sacks while throwing just two touchdowns over six road games this season. Chicago’s D/ST is a sneaky fantasy add for the playoffs.
Jonathan Mingo’s 4.6 fantasy points per game are a lie, BUT …
Mingo is averaging just 31.4 receiving yards and has yet to score a touchdown this season, but the rookie’s production is sure to increase down the stretch given his role. He’s playing 90% of the snaps and has seen 19 targets over the last two games, including one at the goal line. But Mingo has a Bryce Young problem, as the rookie wideout has the third-most air yardage lost from uncatchable passes when open this season. Young missed a wide-open Mingo for a 45-yard touchdown last week, when the QB finished with a -21.2 completion percentage over expectation in the second percentile.
Moreover, the Panthers are seemingly running out the season, so Mingo has to overcome a bad quarterback on a team refusing to pass. Mingo has emerged as Carolina’s No. 1 WR (and a possible DFS punt), but it’s not going to make a huge difference in fantasy leagues for now.
Zack Moss being fantasy’s RB36 over the last two weeks is a lie
Process and usage won’t win fantasy leagues, but patient Moss managers should be rewarded if Jonathan Taylor remains out this week. Moss has killed fantasy teams (and DFS lineups) while averaging just 7.2 fantasy points over the last two weeks. But he’s averaged 21.5 opportunities over that span, playing 92% of the snaps while getting a whopping nine carries inside the 10-yard line. Moss has four carries inside the 5 over the last two games and lost a 10-yard touchdown run last week thanks to a shaky holding penalty. Despite the recent outcomes, Moss should stay in Week 15 fantasy lineups if Taylor remains sidelined.
