The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: The frustrating arc of Terry McLaurin’s career
A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.
Terry McLaurin’s season (and career) is a lie
McLaurin is averaging just 59.6 receiving yards with three touchdowns this season, ranking as the No. 40 fantasy WR in points per game. Sam Howell leads the league in pass attempts (and McLaurin leads in routes run), but his 19.3% target rate is 59th among wide receivers. Scary Terry has just four catches in the red zone this season.
McLaurin had a 25.5% target rate as recently as 2021, so we know he earns them when not being misused. After another quiet 50+ minutes with Howell last week, McLaurin exploded for 93 yards and nearly two touchdowns in less than a quarter with Jacoby Brissett, finishing the week top-five in WR fantasy usage (and No. 3 in actual scoring). Unfortunately for McLaurin’s fantasy managers, Howell remains the Commanders’ starter for now.
The list of quarterbacks McLaurin has played with since entering the league looks like this: Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Carson Wentz and Howell.
McLaurin’s run of back luck continued last week: getting tackled at the one, drawing a DPI penalty in the end zone and getting no credit for an amazing catch. Hopefully, Washington gets him a real quarterback and system soon. A Reception Perception favorite, McLaurin is a terrific route-runner who could be a legit top-10 fantasy receiver in a different setup.
Trey McBride’s 8.3 fantasy points per game are a lie
McBride ranks a solid 11th in fantasy points per game among tight ends this season, but it also vastly undersells his future. He played behind Zach Ertz over the first seven 2023 games, averaging just 3.0 targets and 24.3 receiving yards over that span. McBride has averaged 9.1 targets and 77.4 receiving yards over seven games since Ertz went on IR (and was subsequently released). He’s been the No. 2 fantasy tight end and ranks first at the position in target share, targets per route run and yards per route run since taking over Arizona’s starting role.
McBride has a 31% target share from Kyler Murray since the QB’s return in Week 10, as the tight end’s usage has been equivalent to a top wide receiver. McBride was a Mackey Award winner and has an impressive college resume. He’s the real deal and whether it’s Murray or a top draft pick playing quarterback in Arizona next season, McBride has a strong argument to be the top fantasy tight end off the board in 2024.
Justin Fields’ Week 15 stats were a lie
Fields wasn’t a top-25 fantasy QB last week when he managed just 4.2 YPA and threw two interceptions. His modest seven rushing attempts after averaging 14 over his previous three games were a fantasy disappointment (and a surprise against a man-heavy Cleveland D that turns its back to the QB), but Fields’ passing stats were extremely misleading.
Robert Tonyan dropped a perfectly thrown dime on a potential 74-yard touchdown, while Tyler Scott failed to haul in another pass downfield. Both of Fields’ picks came during Hail Mary attempts at the end of halves, with the first later showing a replay of the ball clearly hitting the ground. His second interception should’ve been caught by Darnell Mooney to win the game.
Fields also lost a rushing touchdown thanks to a false start penalty by Cole Kmet, although the two connected for a score on the next play thanks to another terrific play by the quarterback. Chicago also recorded a pick-six, which is the worst outcome for a fantasy QB. Moreover, Fields’ opponent was allowing an NFL-low 3.5 yards per play at home and ceding the fewest passing yards per game.
Fields deserved better Sunday, and his reward is two favorable upcoming home matchups (Arizona and Atlanta) during fantasy championship weeks.
Patrick Mahomes’ Week 15 stats were a lie
Mahomes threw for 300+ yards for the first time in seven games but once again failed to finish as a top-12 fantasy QB last week. He hasn’t been a top-five QB since Week 7, but his stats versus New England were misleading. Mahomes was throwing darts all game in a tough road matchup, finishing with a completion percentage over expectation (+10.5) in the 87th percentile (while attempting his second-most red-zone passes (9) in a game this season).
He got no help from his rushing attack (2.8 YPC), lost a touchdown pass to Jerick McKinnon and watched Kadarius Toney turn an easy catch into a brutal interception instead yet again. Travis Kelce also couldn’t secure a potential touchdown in the third quarter, so Mahomes’ fantasy day could’ve been much bigger last week.
Expect a strong finish from Mahomes with two upcoming home games (Las Vegas and Cincinnati) in favorable matchups.
