Super Bowl odds: Our favorite prop bets for Chiefs vs. Eagles
The Super Bowl is a betting holiday.
It's the one game a year when seemingly everyone, from professional bettor to those who need a quick tutorial on what a point spread means, gets some action on the game. It's the game in which you might get a little crazy, betting on the color of Gatorade dumped on the winning coach or the length of the national anthem.
With that in mind we got the Yahoo Sportsbook team together to share our favorite game props (player props will be coming Thursday), with the odds from BetMGM:
Nick Bromberg: I’m intrigued by a field goal as the first scoring play of the game at +155. Five of the last six Super Bowls have had field goals open the scoring and the only game in that span to start with a touchdown had a field goal as the second scoring play of the game. The Chiefs’ two Super Bowl appearances in the past three seasons have each opened with field goals as well. Throw in a couple of teams getting acclimated to the stage and a Chiefs defense that has played well over the past month and I like those odds a lot. If you want to bet a specific team to kick the first field goals, the Chiefs and Eagles are each at +375.
Peter Truszkowski: I like the Eagles to score over 1.5 touchdowns in the first half at +110. This is a Philadelphia team that has consistently gotten off to good starts all year and then protected the lead and took their foot off the gas a bit. I expect both teams to move the ball in this game, and the Chiefs’ defense struggles in the red zone so I think Philadelphia will be able to punch it in rather than settling for field goals. Philadelphia has seven first-half touchdowns through two games in these playoffs, and I’m backing them to find the end zone at least twice in the first half at plus-money.
I’m also betting no touchback on the opening kickoff at +130. You can find my reasoning here.
Greg Brainos: I believe there’s a good chance we’re getting a free roll on the Gatorade color this year, so I’m placing 46% of my bet on yellow/green (+275), 43% on orange (+300), and 11% on “no Gatorade poured (+1400).”
I’ll also be tailing the opening kickoff prop that Pete wrote about earlier this week.
Sam Cooper: The list of defensive players to win Super Bowl MVP isn’t very long, but it’s hard not to be intrigued by Eagles defensive end Haason Reddick at +3000. He has been one of the best free agent signings in the league, emerging as an elite edge rusher in Philly. He has a whopping 19.5 sacks combined between the regular season and two postseason games. He has 3.5 sacks in the postseason alone and hasn’t had to play very many snaps to do so. He has only been needed for 65 combined postseason snaps, so the rested Reddick could be the game-wrecker the Eagles need to hold off Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. It was crazy Reddick wasn’t a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year, but I think he’d rather win Super Bowl MVP.
Scott Pianowski: This is going to sound goofy, but when it comes to Super Bowl props, goofy is a jumping-off point. I’ll take the Chiefs at +135 to win the third quarter outright. Kansas City is one of the top scoring teams in the third period (it’s also the most efficient Patrick Mahomes quarter), and that makes sense — Mahomes and Andy Reid get into a flow and react sharply to what they saw in the first half. The Eagles have been average in third-period scoring, and it’s the lowest Jalen Hurts YPA quarter. I suspect Kansas City’s Super Bowl experience is also a tiny bit of an advantage here — they’re used to the absurdly long halftime, the Eagles are not. Hey, at least we’re not betting on the coin flip.
Frank Schwab: There are pages and pages of props you can search through, so you can pick off some obscure ones. Here’s one: BetMGM offers a prop on the length of the game’s first touchdown with a line of 6.5 yards. Thanks to a quick search on Pro Football Reference, we can find that 64 of the 120 touchdowns (53.3 percent) scored by the Chiefs and Eagles were six yards or less. When you think of the offenses, they’re really good near the goal line. The Chiefs were second among NFL teams in touchdown percentage in the red zone and the Eagles were third; when they get close, they cash it in. I’ll bet on the under of 6.5.
I’ll also go with no score in the first six minutes, even at -145 odds. Super Bowls often start slow, with some nerves going and both teams feeling the other out. Betting on low-scoring starts is generally going to be profitable in Super Bowls.
Also, don't knock betting the coin flip, Scott. Take tails.