St. Louis Cardinals 2024 offseason preview: What's next for Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Co.?
The 2024 Cardinals were average in run prevention and below average in run production
2024 season: Eliminated on Sept. 20, 3rd in NL Central
Let's take a look at the season that was for the 2024 St. Louis Cardinals, the questions the team must address this winter and the early outlook for 2025.
Read more: 2024 MLB offseason previews: What's next for the White Sox, Reds, A's and more?
Things that went right
The 2024 Cardinals were average in run prevention and below average in run production, and few of their players stood out. But there were still a few bright spots.
Ryan Helsley battled Emmanuel Clase all season for the major-league lead in saves. Helsley has been a terrific reliever for three straight years, and the key to his 2024 success was moving past a 2023 forearm strain while maintaining the velocity on his fastball and slider.
Sonny Gray was another bright spot, as he gave the team the workhorse it sought when signing him to a three-year, $75 million contract last offseason. He didn’t rank among baseball’s ERA leaders but led the Cards in many key pitching statistics.
On the offensive side, Willson Conteras and Alec Burleson were key contributors. Contreras dealt with two stints on the injured list but logged an OPS over .800. And Burleson took a significant step forward in his third season, showing an improved ability to hit for average and power while becoming the team’s regular No. 2 hitter.
Things that went wrong
The team’s two lineup centerpieces, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, experienced notable decline. Arenado reached base at a similar rate as 2023 but provided less power. The decline for Goldschmidt was more significant, and 2024 marked the second straight year that he took a big step backward.
Nolan Gorman is less essential to the Cards than Goldschmidt or Arenado, but he let the team down, nonetheless. Gorman has never been a high-average hitter, but this year he consistently struggled to keep his average over .200, and his power numbers took a turn for the worse as well. He was optioned to the minors in late August.
St. Louis ranked near the bottom of the league in rotation ERA this season, as no starter fared better than expected. Veterans Miles Mikolas, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn all produced uninspiring results, and Erick Fedde failed to give the team a spark after arriving at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, the Cards got exactly what one would expect from a rotation largely made up of mediocre, aging innings-eaters.
Offseason plans
This is a pivotal offseason for an organization that is trying to retool rather than rebuild.
Most of the infield is set. Arenado has three more years and $52 million left on his contract and will return as the third baseman. Masyn Winn has arrived as a terrific defender and viable leadoff candidate at shortstop. Brendan Donovan can be the second baseman, unless Gorman shows in spring training that his swing is back on track, in which case Donovan can spend more time in the outfield. The team is set behind the plate with Contreras, and first base is wide open with Goldschmidt heading to free agency. Management could seek a first baseman on the free-agent market, or the Cards could turn to Burleson, who has primarily played in the outfield but at times filled in for Goldschmidt.
In the outfield, St. Louis has plenty of options but few certainties. Burleson could fill one spot if he doesn’t shift to first base. Lars Nootbaar is coming off a disappointing, injury-impacted season but should get an opportunity for a full-time role in a potential bounce-back year. A pair of former prospects, Jordan Walker and Victor Scott II, are trying to show that they belong in the majors but have yet to make a real impact. Scott has thus far looked overmatched at the plate, but he has plenty of potential, thanks to his superior speed on the basepaths and in center field. Michael Siani is another center-field option who didn’t hit well in 2024.
More than anything, the Cardinals need to add a starter. Gray gives them one impactful arm, with Fedde and Mikolas also able to hold down rotation spots. Andre Pallante could be the fourth or fifth starter, and Steven Matz will attempt to earn a role after being plagued by injuries during the initial three seasons of a four-year deal. Gibson and Lynn were pitching on one-year contracts, and the organization would be wise to aim higher in free agency this year. Whether president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch target an ace such as Corbin Burnes or drop down a tier to someone such as Luis Severino, this team needs a talented hurler to pair with Gray at the top of the rotation.
Most of the Cardinals’ key relievers, including Helsley, are under contract for 2025. That said, the team will need to replace Andrew Kittredge, who was a valuable setup man and is heading to free agency.
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Prospects on the horizon
The bad news is the Cardinals’ farm system is average at best. The good news is the team’s best prospects should impact the club in 2025.
There are a few hurlers who could add youth to the rotation. Quinn Mathews is the most exciting of the bunch, as he rose through four levels this year after being selected in the 2023 MLB Draft. The left-hander posted dominant numbers and should be considered for the 2025 Opening Day roster. Mathews is famous for having thrown 156 pitches while pitching for Stanford in a College World Series game. Also, Tink Hence has fared well throughout a four-year minor-league career, albeit without throwing a large volume of innings. He mastered Double-A in 2024 and could debut next summer.
Thomas Saggese arrived in the Jordan Montgomery trade in the summer of 2023. He was much more effective offensively last year in Double-A than he was in Triple-A level this season. With Gorman having flopped as the second baseman and Donovan capable of playing multiple positions, the door is open for Saggese to earn a shot in the majors.
Eventually, this organization will need to figure out what to do with Jimmy Crooks, who produced excellent offensive numbers in Double-A this season and is also a strong defender behind the plate. Crooks is blocked at the big-league level by Contreras and Iván Herrera, which means he should spend most of next year in Triple-A.
Goals for 2025
With all due respect to the Brewers, the NL Central is wide open. Milwaukee deserves credit for winning the division three of the past four seasons, but the Brewers’ roster doesn’t look like that of a dynasty, and every other team in this division has the potential to post a winning record.
For the Cardinals to emerge from that group next year, the front office will need to add some upper-end talent to the roster. Youngsters such as Mathews and Scott should help the team next season, but a couple of talented veterans — one in the rotation and one in the batting order — would really have St. Louis nipping at Milwaukee’s heels.
Fantasy focus
Gray and Helsley will be the first Cardinals selected in 2025 fantasy drafts. Gray will be regarded as a No. 2 starter in mixed leagues, which puts him into play in the range of Round 5. Helsley should be selected in a similar round, depending on how much a given league values elite closers.
Contreras will be the team’s most appealing hitter, with Arenado also having plenty of value as a boring but dependable middle-round pick. Winn and Burleson will be valuable in the second half of drafts, and Scott and Mathews could turn strong springs into being popular sleepers in the final rounds.
