Scouting report: Xavier Musketeers seeking Quadrant 1 win vs. No. 19 Creighton

shelby dermer, cincinnati enquirer

Fri, Feb 9, 2024, 8:19 PM·6 min read

When ESPN's latest Bracketology projections are released on Friday, expect the Xavier Musketeers to be well within the mix of an at-large NCAA Tournament berth.

That's how big Wednesday's 56-53 win over Villanova was at Cintas Center. Villanova entered the matchup as one of ESPN's last four teams out of the tournament, and a win improved Xavier's Quadrant 2 record to 5-1.

Xavier was able to win with defense against Villanova, forcing tough shots at the basket, forcing turnovers and swarming in the final seconds of regulation to keep the Wildcats from attempting a game-tying 3-pointer before the buzzer went off.

More: 'We won because of our defense.' 5 observations as Xavier Musketeers hold off Villanova

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More: Xavier Musketeers guard Quincy Olivari named Big East Player of the Week

"Defense wins championships. At Cintas Center, it's what brings the fans to the stands. You all love gritty, hard-working people. That's what defense is about," Xavier guard Quincy Olivari said.

Xavier will need another stellar defensive performance on Saturday afternoon in another Big East matchup with NCAA Tournament implications. It's a Quadrant 1 opportunity for Xavier when No. 19 Creighton visits Cintas Center. It's a rematch from late-January, when Creighton pulled away from Xavier in the second half for an 85-78 win in Omaha.

Here's everything to know about Saturday's matchup.

Xavier vs. No. 19 Creighton scouting report

Tip: Saturday, 12:30 p.m., Cintas Center (10,224)

TV: FOX

Ratings: Xavier is up to No. 37 in KenPom while Creighton is No. 18. The Musketeers are No. 50 in the NCAA Net Rankings while Creighton is No. 19.

History: Xavier holds a 22-18 all-time series lead over Creighton. Xavier went 2-1 against Creighton last season, splitting a pair of regular-season contests before the Musketeers cruised in the Big East Tournament, 82-60.

Creighton guard Trey Alexander had 27 points in an 85-78 Bluejays' win over Xavier on Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024, in Omaha, Neb.

Creighton Bluejays scouting report

Record: 16-7 (7-5 Big East)

Head coach: Greg McDermott (316-157 at Creighton, 14th season)

Offense: 80.8 ppg

Defense: 69.6 ppg

Overview: Creighton is coming off back-to-back Big East losses for the second time this season. Creighton lost to Butler, 99-98, at home Feb. 2 before dropping an overtime decision at Providence on Wednesday. Creighton's defense, which is No. 38 in KenPom and ranks No. 17 in defending shots from inside the arc, allowed Butler and Providence to combine to shoot 50.7% from the field (72-of-142).

By now, it's no secret that Creighton's offense starts from the perimeter. The Bluejays live by the "Let it Fly" mantra they adopted a few years ago, ranking 10th in the nation and first in the Big East in three-point attempts per game (29.1). Creighton's ability from beyond the arc helped them rally to defeat Xavier the first time around. Creighton was 3-of-12 from the perimeter in the first half but recovered to knock down 50% (8-of-16) over the final 20 minutes.

Creighton guard Baylor Scheierman makes a 3-pointer during the Bluejays' 99-98 loss to Butler at CHI Health Center Omaha last week. Scheierman leads Creighton with 18.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.

Guard Baylor Scheierman, who is shooting 37.7% from 3-point range, leads Creighton at 18.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game. Scheierman had 20 points (hitting five treys) and didn't come out of the game against Xavier in the first meeting. Guard Trey Alexander killed Xavier with a game-high 27 points on 10-of-18 shooting. He's averaging 17.2 per game and 7-foot center Ryan Kalkbrenner is averaging 16.5 points and 7.6 rebounds a night.

Creighton's offense ranks No. 5 in effective field goal percentage and is No. 3 at shooting from two-point range.

Projected lineup

(Pos., Height, Stats)

Steven Ashworth (G, 6'1", 10.4 ppg)

Trey Alexander (G, 6'6", 17.2 ppg)

Baylor Scheierman (G, 6'6", 18.6 ppg)

Mason Miller (F, 6'8", 6.0 ppg)

Ryan Kalkbrenner (C, 7'0", 16.5 ppg)

Xavier Musketeers guard Dayvion McKnight (20) drives on Villanova Wildcats guard Brendan Hausen (1) in the second half of the NCAA basketball game between Xavier Musketeers and Villanova Wildcats at the Cintas Center in Cincinnati on Wednesday, Feb. 7, 2024.

Xavier Musketeers scouting report

Record: 13-10 (7-5 Big East)

Head coach: Sean Miller (160-67 at Xavier, seventh season)

Offense: 76.2 ppg

Defense: 72.1 ppg

Overview: Xavier checked a few boxes in its win over Villanova. For starters, it pulled out a hard-fought win despite its surging offense shooting just 34.4% from the field and 22.2% from 3-point range. It also got production from its bench, with five big first-half points from Sasa Ciani and Dailyn Swain coming up big in the second half, finishing with 8 points, 5 rebounds and 2 assists.

Lastly, Xavier center Abou Ousmane was able to stay on the floor. The North Texas transfer has struggled with foul trouble this year. Ousmane was part of offsetting technical fouls in the second half but played a season-high 31 minutes. Though he was only 1-of-7 from the field, Ousmane had 9 rebounds and tied a season-high with 5 blocks as the primary defender against Villanova leading scorer Eric Dixon (5-of-15 shooting).

Xavier's defense is up to No. 29 in KenPom and ranks well in major metrics including effective field goal percentage (No. 42) and defending 2-point shots (No. 36).

How Xavier's defense got the final stop

For the second time in its last three Big East home games, Xavier had to get a stop on the final possession of the game to secure a win and delivered. On Jan. 19 against Georgetown, Xavier, leading 92-91, sent a half-court trap at Hoyas' guard Jayden Epps with under 10 seconds left. It forced the ball out of his hands, and Georgetown's game-winning attempt missed its mark.

On Wednesday, Xavier stood firm on the perimeter and refused to give Villanova a quality look to tie it up. Miller called a timeout after Olivari's free throws made it 56-53, making sure the defense was on the same page to switch on every Villanova screen and not worry if the Wildcats drove to the rim.

Xavier Musketeers guard Desmond Claude (1) celebrates with fans after the NCAA basketball game between Xavier Musketeers and Villanova Wildcats at the Cintas Center in Cincinnati on Wednesday, Feb. 7, 2024. Xavier Musketeers defeated Villanova Wildcats 56-53.

"It is something (switching) in that situation we do," Miller said. "That's really not our base defense. That's why we elected to call timeout."

Desmond Claude added: "That was the thing: no 3s. We executed and they didn't get up a shot. I was shocked. That's a testament to everybody out there and coach Miller making that adjustment."