Revisiting predictions: Where I was right, wrong about Detroit Tigers in 2024 season
In early January, I made 10 predictions for the Detroit Tigers in 2024.
I didn't predict the Tigers would make the playoffs, but I did predict the Tigers would win 84 games. Maybe I should've kept that in mind when I booked my October honeymoon on the day before the Tigers began their 31-11 run to clinch a spot in the postseason.
The Tigers finished with 86 wins.
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As for my predictions, I posted a 5-5 record — still better than the Tigers in every season from 2018-23. Hopefully, the Tigers will stay above .500 for years to come. I'll try to follow their lead with my predictions in the future.
Here are my 10 predictions as published Jan. 4, 2024, with wins and losses used to show if I was right or wrong:
WIN: Javier Báez continues to struggle
This was the easiest prediction.
Not only did Javier Báez continue to struggle, but he continued his downward spiral in his third season with the Tigers. This time, the 31-year-old hit .184 with six home runs in 80 games for a career-worst campaign. His OPS has dropped from .671 in 2022 to .593 in 2023 to .516 in 2024.
Record: 1-0.
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LOSS: Spencer Torkelson hits .250 with 40 home runs
Spencer Torkelson hit .219 with 10 home runs.
I thought Torkelson would develop into a well-rounded hitter (thus increasing his batting average) while continuing to slug homers. Instead, the Tigers demoted a struggling Torkelson to Triple-A Toledo midway through the year for the second time in three seasons, creating an uncertain future for the former No. 1 overall draft pick.
Record: 1-1.
WIN: Tarik Skubal finishes top three in AL Cy Young voting
Tarik Skubal is going to win the 2024 AL Cy Young Award.
The only question is whether or not he wins the Cy Young Award unanimously, but we will find out in mid-November. It wouldn't be surprising if Skubal gets all 30 first-place votes, considering he posted a 2.39 ERA with 35 walks and 228 strikeouts across 182 innings in 31 starts. He led the AL in wins (18), ERA and strikeouts to secure the AL Triple Crown.
Record: 2-1.
LOSS: Riley Greene plays 100-130 games
Riley Greene suffered another lower-body injury, but he missed just three weeks and ended up playing a career-high 137 games in 2024, exceeding his 93 games in 2022 and 99 games in 2023. This season, Greene hit .262 while setting career bests in doubles (27), triples (six), home runs (24), RBIs (74), walk rate (11%) and strikeout rate (26.7%).
A healthy Greene makes everything better for the Tigers. I think he is the best position player on the roster and needs to play more than 130 games every season if the Tigers want to be postseason contenders.
Record: 2-2.
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LOSS: Colt Keith wins AL Rookie of the Year
Colt Keith didn't come close to winning AL Rookie of the Year.
He probably won't get any votes, either.
The 23-year-old tanked his chances to win the award in the first 30 games of his rookie season, hitting .152 with a .399 OPS. (He didn't even hit his first home run until May 23.) Beginning May 6, Keith hit .285 with a .759 OPS in the final 118 games of his rookie campaign. As for the AL Rookie of the Year finalists, keep an eye out for Yankees starter Luis Gil, Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser and Yankees catcher Austin Wells.
Record: 2-3.
WIN: Jason Foley becomes the closer
Jason Foley grabbed hold of the closer role from the onset of the season, stealing the job from Alex Lange. He notched nine saves in March/April and nine saves in September for a strong start and a strong finish, with an additional 10 saves during the inconsistent four months in between.
His 28 saves (in 32 chances) tied for fifth among AL pitchers, trailing only Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader, Kirby Yates and Clay Holmes. He also had a 3.15 ERA across 60 innings in 69 games.
Record: 3-3.
WIN: Reese Olson throws more MLB innings than Casey Mize
Reese Olson (right shoulder strain) and Casey Mize (left hamstring strain) suffered injuries and missed significant time, but Olson still tossed more innings than Mize. Olson threw 112⅓ innings in 22 starts; Mize threw 102⅓ innings in 22 games (20 starts).
Olson and Mize beat out Matt Manning in a three-man competition for two spots in the starting rotating in spring training, but Olson eventually separated himself from Mize (and Manning) based on performance in the regular season. Olson is a lock to make the 2025 rotation, but Mize won't be guaranteed anything in his second year removed from elbow and back surgeries.
Record: 4-3.
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LOSS: Parker Meadows hits below .216
I was wrong about Parker Meadows.
Meadows hit .096 in his first 32 games, leading to an early May demotion to Triple-A Toledo. He returned to the Tigers in early July with a swing change and hit .300 in his final 50 games, all while providing elite defense in center field.
In total, Meadows hit .244 (66-for-270) throughout his 82 games, registering 12 doubles, six triples and nine home runs. If he had 58 hits, rather than 66 hits, he would've finished with a .215 batting average.
Record: 4-4.
LOSS: Jace Jung makes MLB debut in September
So close.
Jace Jung played for the Tigers throughout September, but the former No. 12 overall draft pick made his MLB debut on Aug. 16 against the New York Yankees at Comerica Park. He hit .241 with 15 walks and 29 strikeouts in 34 games but remains in search of his first MLB home run.
He showed impressive knowledge of the strike zone, but the Tigers don't trust his defense at third base. After all, Jung was worth minus-6 defensive runs saved in 190 innings.
Record: 4-5.
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WIN: More than 78 wins
I never predicted playoffs, but I did predict the Tigers would win more games in 2024 than they did in 2023. Specifically, I predicted a six-win improvement from 78 to 84, but the Tigers actually improved by eight.
Keep this in mind: The Tigers were on pace for 75 wins (with a 55-63 record in their first 118 games) before winning 31 of their final 44 games.
Record: 5-5.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers predictions revisited: Where I was right, wrong