Reassessing LSU football and its College Football Playoff outlook after three games
BATON ROUGE — A quarter of the 2024 regular season has been played. And for LSU football, a team that appeared to be a fringe College Football Playoff team entering the season, there's been some up-and-down moments through the first three weeks.
The No. 16 Tigers (2-1, 1-0 SEC) dropped their season opener 27-20 to now No. 11 USC in the waning seconds of the game on Sept. 1 in Las Vegas. It was Brian Kelly's third straight season-opening loss as LSU's coach and the program's fifth straight defeat to the start a season.
LSU handled business against FCS instate opponent Nicholls, 44-21, in its home opener the following weekend before this past Saturday pulling a escape act in rallying from 17 points down early to knock off South Carolina on the road, 36-33.
With three games down and nine more to go over the next two-plus months, let's reassess where LSU stands in the CFP race and what it needs to do to lock up a playoff berth come season's end.
WHY ITS CFP OR BUST FOR LSU IN 2024 Why anything less than College Football Playoff for LSU football in 2024 will be a bust
LSU TIGERS IN FOOTBALL RANKINGS Updating LSU rankings in college football polls after South Carolina win in Week 3
Where LSU football currently stands in College Football Playoff picture
There wasn't much wiggle room for the Tigers coming into the season. Per preseason rankings, Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, Alabama and Missouri were all ranked higher, meaning LSU was not the betting favorite to win the SEC coming into 202. Winning a Power Four conference locks up a top-4 seed in the new 12-team CFP field.
And none of those teams have not lost thus far. Plus, Tennessee is now ranked No. 7 and undefeated with a win over the ACC's North Carolina State on a neutral field.
Taking that into account plus LSU currently being ranked No. 16, the highest-ranked one-loss team, LSU is firmly on the outside looking in for the playoff picture at the moment. But it could very well change that.
LSU must win either Ole Miss, Alabama games
Taking care of business against UCLA this Saturday (2:30 p.m., ABC) at Tiger Stadium and South Alabama next Saturday (6:45 p.m., SEC Network) won't move the needle much for the Tigers. With the loss in the opener against a team that right now projects to make the CFP, LSU is going to need to beat at least one team that's projects in.
Therein lies upcoming home games against No. 5 Ole Miss (Oct. 12) and No. 4 Alabama (Nov. 9).
LSU must pad its resume now and the only way it's going to be able to do so is by knocking off either the Rebels or Crimson Tide, at minimum. Winning both games would be a resounding statement and would easily place the Tigers in playoff contention.
Other games matter on the schedule but, after the USC loss, the dates to circle are Ole Miss and Alabama for LSU.
Other games LSU Tigers shouldn't discount include Arkansas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Outside of the two big marquee SEC games, there remain some other CFP landmines along LSU's path.
The matchup at Arkansas following what'll be a high-emotion game against Ole Miss is a tricky spot for the Tigers. Five of the last six meetings between LSU and Arkansas have been decided by a touchdown or less and the last three games in Fayetteville have all been one-score games. The Tigers have won seven of the last eight over the Razorbacks but most of those haven't been easy.
Look, for whatever reason, LSU just can't seem to find a win at Texas A&M's Kyle Field right now. The Aggies have beaten LSU three straight times at home. The Tigers can't suffer the same fate if they want to make the playoffs this season.
Oklahoma is new to the SEC and the unfamiliarity provides plenty of allure to this regular season finale matchup that potentially could have a ton on the line.
HAROLD PERKINS Why Brian Kelly says LSU football 'made progress' with Harold Perkins at Sam linebacker
CADEN DURHAM After two TDs at South Carolina, did Caden Durham do enough to be LSU football's RB1?
Cory Diaz covers the LSU Tigers for The Daily Advertiser as part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow his Tigers coverage on Twitter: @ByCoryDiaz. Got questions regarding LSU athletics? Send them to Cory Diaz at bdiaz@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Lafayette Daily Advertiser: Where LSU football stands in College Football Playoff picture
