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Rangers projected lineup: Is this really the 'last crack' for Blueshirts' core?

PITTSBURGH - Is this really "the last crack for this core," as Rangers captain Jacob Trouba deemed it to be on the opening day of training camp?

It depends how you look at it.

No team remains untouched from one year to the next, not with players coming and going via free agency and salary cap considerations often squeezing others out. But the Blueshirts have had far more continuity than most, a reality that isn't lost on the guys in the locker room.

"That's the way the NHL is," defenseman Braden Schneider said. "Guys move on. It's a terrible thing to think, and you don't want that, but that’s why you want to win right now. And with the group that we have right now, in this moment, I think we have a great opportunity in front of us. You can't predict the future going down the road, but we definitely need to put our best foot forward."

Of the 24 players who broke training camp with the team − that includes injured veterans Ryan Lindgren and Jimmy Vesey − 21 suited up for New York at some point last season. Forwards Sam Carrick and Reilly Smith are the only true newcomers, with surprise rookie defenseman Victor Mancini coming up through the system and set to make his NHL debut Wednesday in Pittsburgh.

Roster finalized: One thought for every player who made the cut

It's hard to envision a scenario in which the Rangers return that many familiar faces next season, but the best way to ensure minimal turnover is simple.

Win.

They've done plenty of that in recent seasons, with trips to the Eastern Conference Final two of the last three years and a 2023-24 Presidents' Trophy to prove it. But the glow of those accomplishments has quickly dimmed in the eyes of a fan base that's thirsting for its first championship in over 30 years.

If anything, getting so close and coming up short has intensified the collective desire to end the drought.

"Every time you get further in the playoffs and lose, it hurts a little bit more," center Vincent Trocheck said Wednesday morning from PPG Paints Arena. "It adds some fire. We're motivated to get back to where we were and take it further."

Sep 24, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba (8) celebrates a goal with center Vincent Trocheck (16) during the third period against the New York Islanders at Madison Square Garden.
Sep 24, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba (8) celebrates a goal with center Vincent Trocheck (16) during the third period against the New York Islanders at Madison Square Garden.

This Rangers' team will be judged by whether or not they can win it all, but there are 82 games to go between now and the playoffs, beginning with Wednesday's 7:30 p.m. season-opener against the Penguins.

They can't afford to look past that six-month grind, with a head coach whose intent on using that time productively.

"There's an expectation − there was last year, and probably before I got here − for this team to be successful," Peter Laviolette said. "Ultimately, you have to go and build that through the regular season. You have to do the work. You’ve got to put yourself in a position to have a good regular season, to carry that in the playoffs. I don't think any of that changes. I don't know if it's necessarily pressure. It's just, that's what we expect. That's what we want to achieve here in New York, but that doesn’t change. We’ve still got to keep moving forward, take more steps. There are some good things that we did (last season), but we’ve got to take more steps."

Laviolette and most of his players have been vague about exactly what those steps entail, but it's become increasingly obvious in recent seasons.

The Rangers have the NHL's best combination of goaltending and special teams. Many consider Igor Shesterkin the top netminder in the world, while both their power play and penalty kill ranked third in the league last season.

That led to franchise records in wins (55) and points (114), but it may be a flawed formula come playoff time. The eventual champion Florida Panthers thoroughly outplayed them in five-on-five situations, registering a 62.15% xGF with a 77-40 advantage in high-danger scoring chances through six conference final games, according to Natural Stat Trick.

Those cracks in the armor were evident during the regular season, as well, where the Rangers' 48.98% xGF ranked 22nd out of 32 teams. But they've pushed back on the narrative that their 5v5 play is holding them back, noting that their special teams' dominance often changes their even-strength approach.

"Everybody just looks at the stats," Trocheck said. "If we're up 3-1 in a game, and we have three power-play goals and don't have any five-on-five goals and we win the game, it's still a win, right? You take the rest of the game after you score three power-play goals, and you're playing differently. You're playing safer at five-on-five. Maybe it's not as aggressive with your D (joining the rush). There are too many things that go into it to look at just the stats."

There's surely some truth to that, but if the power-play goals dry up the way they did against the Panthers, when New York's PP was held to a measly 1-for-15 showing, then they're going to need to find other ways to generate offense.

Trocheck's line with Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafrenière was the only consistent source of 5v5 scoring, but the Rangers are hopeful they'll have more help this season.

That starts with their other top line, where Smith is being counted on to stabilize the right-wing position next to Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad, the latter coming off what was easily the worst 5v5 output in his eight years with the Blueshirts. It extends to the bottom six, where Filip Chytil's secondary scoring was dearly missed while he sat out 72 games due to a Nov. 2 concussion and Jan. 26 setback. And it also includes the D corps, which should benefit from former Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox having a healthy right knee.

If all, or at least most, of those things fall into place, then it's feasible to believe this core can elevate to a Stanley Cup level. But if they fall short, then drastic changes will be considered.

Some may be inevitable, regardless of this season's outcome.

The two big dominoes are Shesterkin and Trouba. The former rejected the Rangers' offer of eight years and $88 million, and although most believe New York will do what it takes to get him re-signed, the threat of free agency next summer looms larger than ever. As for the captain, he seems well aware he could become a cap casualty after this season to make room for Shesterkin and others.

Who else could be facing their last dance with the Blueshirts? Lindgren and Vesey are both entering the final years of their deals, as is Smith. All three could be gone by this time next year, but many others should be back. Fox, Kreider, Panarin, Trocheck and Zibanejad have large contracts that likely aren't going anywhere, while retaining pending RFAs Lafrenière and K'Andre Miller will be high priorities.

So, it won't be the massive overhaul some have made it out to be − that's probably another year or two down the line, especially given some of the cap constraints they'll be dealing with in 2025-26 − but the roster will also never look quite the way it does right now.

The only way to make it last forever is to etch their names into the Cup as champions.

"You never know how many chances you're going to get," Zibanejad said. "We’ve had the same group for some years now, but we realize it's a new year. Everyone's starting from zero again, and we’ve got some work to do. Is there added pressure? I don't know. It’s a new situation. It's a new season, so you don't really know the other teams, your team. You don't know all those things. The only way you can go about it is to prepare yourself as best you can. I think we've done that throughout the training camp so far, and we’ve just got to keep going and get focused on starting with a win."

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 24: Mika Zibanejad #93 of the New York Rangers handles the puck against the New York Islanders during the second period at Madison Square Garden on September 24, 2024 in New York City.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 24: Mika Zibanejad #93 of the New York Rangers handles the puck against the New York Islanders during the second period at Madison Square Garden on September 24, 2024 in New York City.

NY Rangers (0-0) projected lineup: Game 1 at Pittsburgh Penguins (0-0)

When: Wednesday, Oct. 9 at 7:30 p.m.

Where: PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh

TV/Radio: TNT and MAX/1050 AM

Forwards

Top line ⊳ Chris Kreider (LW) ⋄ Mika Zibanejad (C) ⋄ Reilly Smith (RW)

Second line ⊳ Artemi Panarin (LW) ⋄ Vincent Trocheck (C) ⋄ Alexis Lafrenière (RW)

Third line ⊳ Will Cuylle (LW) ⋄ Filip Chytil (C) ⋄ Kaapo Kakko (RW)

Fourth line ⊳ Adam Edström (LW) ⋄ Sam Carrick (C) ⋄ Jonny Brodzinski (RW)

Defensemen

Top pair ⊳ K'Andre Miller (L) ⋄ Adam Fox (R)

Second pair ⊳ Braden Schneider (L) ⋄ Jacob Trouba (R)

Third pair ⊳ Zac Jones (L) ⋄ Victor Mancini (R)

Goalies

Starter ⊳ Igor Shesterkin

Backup ⊳ Jonathan Quick

Healthy scratches: F Matt Rempe and D Chad Ruhwedel

Injured reserve: D Ryan Lindgren (upper body)

Long-term injured reserve: F Jimmy Vesey (lower body)

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Rangers lineup: Is this really the 'last crack' for Blueshirts' core?