Who have been the finest finishers in the Premier League so far this season? Using Expected Goals (xG) data, we take a look.

Expected Goals measures the quality of goalscoring chances and the likelihood of them being scored. Here are the five Premier League players with the biggest overperformance in 2024/25.

The Premier League’s biggest xG overperformers

5. Cole Palmer (Chelsea) – 1.95 xG overperformance

Ice-cool Cole continues to be the headline act at Chelsea and has picked up where he left off last season.

After leading the Premier League for goal involvements in 2023/24 (33), Palmer leads from the front again as we head into October’s international break. He has six goals and five assists, including a record-breaking four first-half goals in the win over Brighton last month.

Just three players overperformed their xG to a greater extent than Palmer last season and the PFA Young Player of the Year is proving again that he’s one of the best finishers in the division.

4. Mateo Kovacic (Manchester City) – 2.4 xG overperformance

Mateo Kovacic can hardly be considered a regular goalscorer. He scored just four league goals in 142 league appearances for Chelsea but has taken just 39 games to match that haul in a Manchester City shirt.

Three of those goals have come in six appearances this season, with the Croatian in an uncharacteristically clinical mood with an xG overperformance of 2.4.

3. Dwight McNeil (Everton) – 2.47 xG overperformance

Dwight McNeil is enjoying his football at Everton this season with the left-winger shining in a more central role for Sean Dyche’s side.

He has three goals in seven games – matching his Premier League return from last season – and ranks fourth in the league for chances created. A revelation after his redeployment.

2. Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford) – 3.03 xG overperformance

No Ivan Toney, no problem.

Brentford waved goodbye to their talisman in the summer but Bryan Mbeumo has wasted no time in assuming main-man status. The Cameroonian has scored six goals in seven games, with only Erling Haaland outscoring Mbeumo over the season’s opening weeks.

His fine finishing has kept Brentford comfortably clear of trouble, scoring 3.03 more goals than he would be expected to score using xG data.

1. Erling Haaland (Manchester City) – 3.88 xG overperformance

Erling Haaland is the Premier League’s resident sharp-shooter and has started the season in blistering form.

The back-to-back Golden Boot winner has scored 10 goals in just seven games for Manchester City, taking an early lead in what could be a one-horse race towards a third successive season as the league’s leading scorer.

Not only does the 24-year-old lead the league for xG (6.02), he also boasts the biggest overperformance (3.88). The Norwegian will take some stopping this season.

Read – The Premier League’s biggest xG underperformers

See more – The Premier League players with the most goal involvements for one club

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