Phoenix Turning Point: Is this the evenest Championship 4 in history?
Here’s what’s happening in the world of NASCAR with Martinsville in the rearview and Phoenix (Sun., 3 p.m. ET, NBC) up next.
THE LINEUP
1️⃣ Championship Race set to cap off highlight-reel 2024 season
2️⃣ Is this the evenest Championship 4 ever?
3️⃣ By the numbers: Championship 4 driver stats at Phoenix
4️⃣ Will Kyle Busch extend his lengthy annual win streak?
5️⃣ Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
1. Championship Race set to cap off highlight-reel 2024 season
It all comes down to Sunday, and, based on how this season has constantly added to the history books, it’s hard to expect we’ll see anything other than an all-timer.
We sort of went on and on about this topic at length in last week’s Turning Point, but it bears repeating after another thriller at Martinsville decided this year’s Championship 4 — the 2024 season was a series of non-stop bangers, filled to the brim with tension throughout and capped with jaw-dropper after jaw-dropper.
To recap, a small contingent of wild things we saw this year:
One of the closest finishes in history … and then the actual closest finish; NASCAR’s oldest team landing its landmark 100th Cup Series win after years of waiting … with a driver they’d recently let go; a Cup race happening at Iowa Speedway, and it being one of the best of the season; arguably the most dominant playoff performance in history coming at the hands of a generational talent at Bristol … yet it all being for naught because of a rainstorm in Indianapolis in May; the Regular Season Champion struggling in the playoffs — apart from one race — and still making his way into the Championship 4; six races ended with a last-lap pass, the most-ever in a season, with 13 NASCAR Overtime races being an all-time high as well … we could go on.
ANALYSIS: What went wrong for stars who missed Championship 4
And to think, all of that could somehow be topped this weekend out west.
We saw just how competitive the Round of 8 was at Martinsville from top to bottom, and how the stakes were raised even higher. In a Phoenix race to settle it all with even more pressure, another unmistakable moment feels like a no-brainer to be added to NASCAR lore this weekend.
There’s a lot that would be notable here, no matter who wins.
Team Penske teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano are the only former Cup champions in the Championship 4 — a win by the former would make him the first driver to go back-to-back since Jimmie Johnson; while a third title for “Sliced Bread” slots him in as a legend of the sport, on par with the all-timer he replaced at Joe Gibbs Racing as an 18-year-old and, at 34 years old now, plenty of time to lap him as he begins to enter the twilight years of his career. It’s possible Logano hasn’t even hit his prime yet, which is truly scary to think about.
A championship landing with either of the other two are notable as well, with Byron carrying on the legacy of the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet as he firmly settles into that ride for years to come, as his trajectory from sim star to superstar progresses along marvelously. And if Reddick is to win, it’s a fitting end for a Regular Season Champion, but an important milestone for a 23XI Racing team that didn’t even exist a small handful of years ago to prove that it’s possible to come in and compete with the big boys.
It’s been quite the ride this year, and here they come — white flag in the air.
One more time around.
2. Is this the evenest Championship 4 ever?
Each of the four remaining title contenders feels like bona fide championship material, with no huge favorite among them. Is the championship truly up for grabs?
Now that we know exactly who will be racing for the 2024 championship, plenty of statistical analysis will be happening this week and I’m here to tell you — there’s no slam dunk stat out there that points to a clear, head-and-shoulders-above-the-rest driver to win it all.
If you absolutely had to pick a “favorite,” you could give a slight nod to last weekend’s winner at Martinsville, Ryan Blaney, but any of these drivers feels more than capable of representing the sport well and wouldn’t feel any bit fluky.
After all, each driver enters the weekend with the same amount of wins — three — for the first time in the history of this format, with the quartet essentially winning a third of the season’s races collectively.
Looking to become the first reigning champ to make a return to the Championship 4 and actually win, Blaney leads all drivers in laps run in the top 10 at Phoenix in the Next Gen car with 1,385 and should be in contention all day long. Remarkably, he appears to be on a near-identical path to the title as last year, coming up just short at Homestead-Miami before claiming a must-win race at Martinsville, and that path is clearly a prosperous one.
No. 12’s six-race top-five streak at Phoenix is also the third longest all-time and his longest at any track in Cup, with an average running position of 5.6 at Phoenix over the last eight races. That’s best of all Champ 4 drivers by more than five positions, per Racing Insights.
There’s a lot going for the 12 group right now and, like, I said, if you had to pick one — Blaney’s the guy.
MORE: Why each driver will win the title — and why they might not
Then again, things line up pretty great for his teammate as well, considering Logano, who won the Round of 8 opener at Las Vegas, won the championship the last two times he did that. You might’ve heard something about this, as well, but he also has made the Championship 4 every other season (the even years) in the history of this format and clearly has all the pieces in place to make title No. 3 a reality.
That said, Logano ranked 15th in points scored in the regular season — the lowest rank ever to make the Championship 4 in the stage era.
Byron might be Blaney’s equal threat when it comes to Phoenix, specifically, leading all drivers in laps run in the top five at Phoenix in the Next Gen car with 1,058, and second only to Blaney in laps in the top 10 at 1,366. He’s a constant force there as well, and is riding the hottest overall streak of anybody in the playoffs right now, with six straight top-six finishes for an overall 4.0 average that stands as his best across any six-race stretch in his career.
He’s also just the fifth driver in the stage era to make the Championship 4 without a playoff win and has the longest winless streak of any driver to make the finale in the stage area, not taking a single trip to Victory Lane since early spring. Only one driver’s first playoff win was for the championship (Kyle Busch in 2019) and there’s nothing close to a guarantee Byron will be the second.
And finally, there’s Reddick, whose 19.9 average finish in the playoffs is mesmerizingly bad for a Championship 4 driver … but he’s also the Regular Season Champion and clearly deserves to be there when considering the whole body of work. He’s also scored the fewest points in the playoffs of any Championship 4 driver in history, but at the same time … how many drivers can do what he did at Homestead?
It might be necessary once again, and he’s the guy you trust the most to do it.
3. By the numbers: Championship 4 driver stats at Phoenix
Crew chiefs Luke Lambert and Drew Blickensderfer dive into the Championship 4 drivers’ previous performances at Phoenix Raceway.
4. Will Kyle Busch extend his lengthy annual win streak?
“Rowdy” highlights a list of drivers that won in 2023 but will go winless in 2024 unless they find a way to top the Championship 4 drivers, like Ross Chastain did last year. In Busch’s case, if he doesn’t — it’ll snap a 19-year streak of winning. (Credit: Racing Insights)
Driver | 2023 wins | Tracks |
---|---|---|
Kyle Busch | 3 | Auto Club, Talladega, Gateway |
Martin Truex Jr. | 3 | Dover, Sonoma, New Hampshire |
AJ Allmendinger | 1 | Charlotte Roval |
Michael McDowell | 1 | Indy Road Course |
Shane van Gisbergen | 1 | Chicago Street Course |
5. Catch the pack — news and notes from around the garage
Power Rankings: Stacking up all 12 Championship 4 contenders
Paint Scheme Preview: 2024 Phoenix championship
NASCAR betting: 2024 Phoenix championship race odds
Analysis: What went wrong for stars who fell short of Championship 4
Analysis: On the clock once again, Ryan Blaney lives up to the moment
William Byron: ‘The rule is what it is‘ after Bell misses Championship 4
Kyle Petty: Ryan Blaney‘s ‘phenomenal drive‘ overshadowed by last-lap wall ride
Denny Hamlin: ‘Overall, I just want to win‘ after coming up short of Championship 4
Ticket punched: Ryan Blaney closes out dramatic, walk-off Martinsville win
NASCAR‘s Elton Sawyer explains decision to penalize Christopher Bell
Chase Elliott after missing Championship 4: ‘That‘s life‘
Will Blaney become first back-to-back champ in over a decade?
Byron makes Champ 4, Bell out after NASCAR issues safety penalty
2024 Cup Series Championship 4 cemented; William Byron clinches on points