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The Packers now control their own destiny in chase for NFC playoffs, need to defeat Bears in Week 18

The Packers headed into their Sunday night battle with Minnesota knowing if they win their final two games of the season, they'll be in the playoffs. They came away with a lopsided win and a great opportunity.

Just like the 2022 season finale — which, admittedly, did not go as planned when Detroit beat the Packers to knock them out of the playoffs — the Packers are facing a win-and-in situation when they face the Chicago Bears next week at Lambeau Field. The time has yet to be announced.

Green Bay already got a major playoff boost Sunday thanks to Seattle's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, which gave Green Bay an important leg up on the Seahawks. The Packers can do no worse than the No. 7 seed if they beat the Bears.

Patrick Taylor, left, and Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers warm up prior to a game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 31, 2023.
Patrick Taylor, left, and Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers warm up prior to a game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 31, 2023.

Here's what to know:

The Packers and Seahawks are tied at 8-8, but Green Bay has the tiebreaker

Seattle's 27-20 loss to Pittsburgh (with a big assist from University of Wisconsin alumnus Nick Herbig) was a big piece to the puzzle, and a needed one after the Rams won earlier in the day. The Seahawks fell to 8-8, and if the Packers win their final game to finish 9-8, all Seattle can do is tie the Packers.

Green Bay would have the tiebreaker in that case. The teams haven't squared off head-to-head and would have the same record against NFC conference foes, which is the next tiebreaker in the hierarchy established by the NFL to settle tiebreakers between two teams. They'd also have the same record (3-3) in games featuring common opponents. But next is strength of victory, which favors Green Bay insurmountably.

The Green Bay Packers can still catch the Rams for the No. 6 seed, too

If Green Bay wins out and the Rams lose next week against San Francisco, the Packers can still bypass the Rams on head-to-head tiebreaker and upgrade to the No. 6 seed. San Francisco, however, has clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye and doesn't have much to play for next week. Don't expect to see a full-strength 49ers.

Is there still a chance the Packers get into the playoffs even with a loss to the Bears?

There's still a scenario available to Green Bay in this case. If the Packers lose to the Bears in Week 18, but the Vikings lose to the Lions, the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals and the Falcons beat the Saints, the Packers will still be in as the No. 7 seed.

The Falcons, Bears, Seahawks, Saints and Packers would all be tied at 8-9. The Packers and Falcons would prevail in divisional tiebreakers over their counterparts to compete with Seattle for the No. 7 spot. Even though Atlanta beat Green Bay head-to-head, Seattle hasn't played Atlanta, so head-to-head isn't used here; instead, it's best conference record among the three teams.

Seattle and Green Bay would be tied, but Atlanta would fall behind here and get weeded out. Green Bay would surpass Seattle based on the previously mentioned criteria for the No. 7 spot.

Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy, celebrates after running back Tony Pollard ran the ball for a touchdown in the second half of an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks in Arlington, Texas, Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023.
Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy, celebrates after running back Tony Pollard ran the ball for a touchdown in the second half of an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks in Arlington, Texas, Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023.

Who are the Packers likely to play in the playoffs if they make it?

If the season ended today, the Packers would have the No. 7 seed and face former coach Mike McCarthy and the Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. The Packers have some recent playoff success in Dallas, toppling the top-seeded Cowboys in the 2016 playoffs after a win in that building for the Super Bowl XLV title after the 2010 season. Green Bay also beat the Cowboys at Lambeau Field in the 2014 playoffs (the "Dez Caught It" game).

But the Packers had lost four straight playoff games against Dallas following back-to-back wins over the Cowboys in the 1966 and 1967 NFC championship games, in advance of winning the first two Super Bowls.

There's only two other possible foes. The likelier of the two is the Detroit Lions, the NFC North foe with whom Green Bay has split two games this season, including a resounding win in Detroit on Thanksgiving. The Lions are looking for their first playoff win since 1991; Detroit's postseason drought began with wild-card losses to the Packers in back-to-back seasons in 1993 and 1994.

If Dallas loses its season finale against Washington and Philadelphia beats the New York Giants, then the Eagles will leapfrog the Cowboys for the NFC East crown and figure into the mix, as well. The Packers have gone 1-1 against the Eagles in the postseason during the Super Bowl era, and both games were memorable. Green Bay defeated the Eagles on the road in the wild-card round of the 2010 postseason, en route to the Super Bowl championship. In 2003, Philadelphia rallied to shock Green Bay in the infamous "4th and 26" game at the divisional-round level.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb scores the game-winning touchdown on a 48-yard touchdown reception during the fourth quarter of their game Sunday, Dec. 29, 2013, at Soldier Field. The Packers beat the Chicago Bears, 33-28, to win the NFC North.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb scores the game-winning touchdown on a 48-yard touchdown reception during the fourth quarter of their game Sunday, Dec. 29, 2013, at Soldier Field. The Packers beat the Chicago Bears, 33-28, to win the NFC North.

It's not the first time a playoff berth comes down to the Bears

The Packers and Bears have met in the regular-season finale with a lot on the line before.

The highest profile came in the 2010 season, when Green Bay gutted out a win it needed to make the playoffs; that came back to bite the Bears when the Packers defeated Chicago in the NFC Championship Game en route to a Super Bowl title.

In 2013, Aaron Rodgers found Randall Cobb in a thrilling finish that gave the Packers the NFC North title with a winner-take-all battle against the Bears.

In 2020, the Packers needed to beat the Bears to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs and got the win, 35-16. In 1983, the Packers could have won the division with a win over the Bears at Soldier Field and a Lions loss, but neither happened. Green Bay lost, 23-21, with Bob Thomas of the Bears kicking a game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter.

Last year, the Packers had an identical setup as this season, owning an 8-8 record with a game against a divisional foe at Lambeau Field to earn playoff access. But the Lions beat the Packers, 20-16.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Green Bay Packers path to playoffs is clear: beat Bears in Week 18